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Week 51 -2012 | From Dec 17 to Dec 21, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 51-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 51-2012 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Empire Estate Mfg Index |
The New York Fed reports that the general business conditions metric of its empire state manufacturing index declined to -8.11 in December. This is the third consecutive month of decline, following a -5.22 reading in November and a -6.16 reading in October. |
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Manufacturing |
he December 2012 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for�New Yorkmanufacturers continued to decline at a modest pace. The general business conditions index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, falling three points to -8.1. |
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Mon |
Treasury Intal Capital |
The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $56.7 billion. �Of this, net foreign private outflows were $56.4 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $0.3 billion. |
N/A |
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Balance of Payments |
Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in October - net purchases were $28.4 billion. �Net purchases by private foreign investors were $22.3 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $6.2 billion. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Index |
Store sales grew higher this week�following�last week’s dip as Christmas is just a short week away. The ICSC-Goldman store sales index improved to 3.5% year over year gains compared to only 2.5% Y/Y a week ago. |
4.3%
W/W
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Sales and Inventories |
Consumers may still be behind but they made a big dent in their Christmas shopping during the December 15 week. |
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Tue |
Current Account |
The U.S. current account deficit shrank to its narrowest in nearly two years in the third quarter as weak domestic demand and lower oil prices curbed imports, a government report showed on Tuesday. |
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Balance of Payments |
The�Commerce Department�said the�current account�gap, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, fell to $107.5 billion, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2010, from $118.1 billion in the second quarter. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Redbook store sales index rose to 2.4% year over year gains compared to only 2.2% Y/Y the week prior. |
2.4%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Sales are still relatively weak, but expect a hectic final week before Christmas as retailers push new promotions and discounts and scramble to unload inventory. |
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Tue |
Housing Market Index |
Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. improved for the eighth straight month in December, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday, with the housing market index rising to a new six-year high. |
N/A |
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Real Estate |
The report showed that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 47 in December from a revised 45 in November. With the increase, the housing market index rose to its highest level since reaching a reading of 51 in April of 2006. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for home mortgages fell to their lowest level since early November last week and the purchase index fell after a five-week climb, an industry group said on Wednesday. |
-12.3%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 12.3% in the week ended December 14. |
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Wed |
Housing Starts |
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that builders began construction of homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000. That was 3% less than October's annual rate of 888,000, the fastest since July 2008. |
861K |
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Real Estate |
Housing starts fell 5.2% in the Northeast in November compared with October. And compared with a year earlier, starts are down nearly 26% in the Northeast, the only region to record a drop in the past year. |
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Wed |
Building Permits |
Home builders are moderately optimistic about future sales as housing permits rose 3.6% to an annual pace of 899,000 units. |
899K |
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Real Estate |
The increase in Building Permits for November was followed a 2.5% decline in October. Analysts projected November permits posting at 875,000 units. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
U.S. crude futures gained 1.7% Wednesday after weekly government data on domestic oil inventories showed falling supplies and a jump in demand for some fuel products. |
N/A |
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Commodity |
U.S. oil stockpiles fell by 1 million barrels last week to the lowest level since October, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Weekly jobless claims rose slightly more than expected. Weekly jobless claims rose to 361,000 in the latest week. Claims has been expected to rise to 357,000, from 343,000 the prior week. |
361K |
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Employment |
The Department of Labor reports that initial jobless claims increased to 361k last week, 17k above the prior week�s revised reading of 344k. |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter as exports and government spending provided a lift, but that boost is likely to be lost amid slowing global demand and a move towards tighter fiscal policy. |
3.1% |
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Growth |
Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.1% annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate on Thursday, up from the 2.7% pace reported last month. |
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Thu |
Corporate Profits |
Corporate profits in Q3-2012 Final rose to $1.742 trillion annualized. Up from to $1.665 trillion in Q2-2012 quarter. Profits in the third quarter grew an annualized 19.9% after contracting 1.4% in the second quarter. |
$1,742
Billions
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Growth |
Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 17.9%, compared to up 14.5% in the second quarter. Just four years after the worst shock to the economy since the Great Depression, U.S. corporate profits are stronger than ever |
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Tue |
Existing Home Sales |
Sales of existing homes beat expectations in November, with Realtors reporting a surprisingly modest effect in the Northeast from Superstorm Sandy. An even bigger surprise was a huge gain in activity among higher-end homes. |
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Real Estate |
Sales of homes priced above $750,000 jumped 50% from a year ago, as sales of the lowest-end homes (largely distressed) fell 4%, according to the National Association of Realtors |
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Tue |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reports that its the general business activity index of its Philly Fed Survey drastically improved in December to a reading of 8.1, far better than November�s -10.7 figure.Of those surveyed, 25.5% of businesses reported that business conditions had improved, while 17.4% reported that conditions had worsened. |
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Business Activity |
The December report is indicative of economic expansion. Of the last 8 months, only 1 other report (October) from the Philly Fed has indicated economic expansion. This is the highest the index has been since April�s reading of 8.5. |
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Tue |
Leading Indicators |
The Conference Board said today that its index of leading indicators dropped 0.2% in November, compared with October, when the index had risen 0.3%. It was the first decline in the index since a 0.4% fall in August. |
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Business Activity |
A measure of the U.S. economy designed to signal future activity fell in November, suggesting that growth could remain weak in the early part of next year. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
The Federal Finance Housing Agency reports that U.S. house prices rose 0.5% in October. This follows a 0.2% increase in September, and leaves home prices up 5.6% from a year ago. The U.S. index is 15.7% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the July 2004 index level. |
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Real Estate |
The FHFA House Price Index Beat Expectations Rising 0.5%. The FHFA house price index beat expectations rising 0.5% month-over-month in October |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas in storage fell 82 billion cubic feet in the December 14 week to 3,724 bcf. A withdrawal of about 75 bcf was expected. |
-82 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural-gas futures gained more ground Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported that inventories of the commodity fell more than expected, by 82 billion cubic feet for the week ended Dec. 14. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank in the latest week with a lower holdings of federal government and agency securities, Fed data released on Friday showed |
-8.4B |
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Government |
The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.853 trillion on November 21, down from $2.859 trillion on November 14. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
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$-1.9B |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage Rates for 30-Year Fixed U.S. Loans Rise to 3.37%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.37% in the week ended today, up from 3.32%, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac said in a statement. |
3.91% |
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Interest Rates |
The average 15- year rate slipped to 2.65% from 2.66%. Interest rates close to record lows are attracting buyers, while a shrinking supply of properties for sale bolsters prices |
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Fri |
Personal Income |
Americans saw a jump in personal income in November and, despite spending most of it, still took their savings levels to the highest in four months, according to data released Friday. |
0.6% |
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Consumer |
The Commerce Department said personal income climbed 0.6% in November, the largest gain since February, and consumer spending rose 0.4%. |
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Fri |
Consumer Spending Real PCE |
Real disposable income rose 0.8% on the month, the strongest since January 2011. Real spending gained 0.6%, the best improvement since August 2009. |
0.4% |
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Consumer |
The upshot is that it now appears that fourth-quarter real consumption is on course to increase by as much as 2.0%, we previously had 1.5% penciled in, and business investment in equipment and software, which we had assumed would contract, may now post a modest gain |
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Fri |
Core PCE |
The core PCE rate slowed to no change. 0.0% in November, after a 0.1% rise in October. The market median forecast was for 0.1% increase. |
0.0% |
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Inflation |
That’s because an inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses to set interest-rate policy, the Real PCE price index, fell 0.2% in November. |
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Fri |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
The Chicago Fed reports that its national activity index (CFNAI) increased to a reading of 0.10 in November. This follows a -0.64 reading in October, and is the first positive print, indicating economic expansion, since February. |
0.10
Level
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Growth |
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) posted a sharp rise in November, an indication that economic activity increased last month. The CFNAI's three-month moving average moved higher as well, rising to -0.20 last month. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The University of Michigan / Reuters reports that the final consumer sentiment reading for December declined to 72.9. |
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Consumer |
This is a slight revision down from December�s preliminary print of 74.5, and a modest decline from November�s reading of 82.7. |
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| WEEK 51-2012 ENDING DEC. 21 |
Reports Commentary
U.S. current account deficit smallest in nearly two years. That represented 2.7% of gross domestic product, the smallest share since the second quarter of 2009, and down from 3.0% in the second quarter.
The smaller deficit, if sustained, should help support the dollar, even as the Federal Reserve continues its aggressive easing policy to boost economic growth.
With imports falling further in October, look for the current account gap to decrease again in the fourth quarter.
Next year, faster growth in emerging markets should support exports, extending the improvement in the trade balance. A gradually shrinking current account deficit means the U.S. is becoming less dependent on foreign funding, which should be a long-term positive for the greenback.
U.S. Housing Market Index Rises To New Six-Year High In December.
Officially, the third and final report on Q3 GDP from the Commerce Department shows that 0.7% of the gain came from inventories, and that without it "real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.4%," as the press release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis states. Add in a 9.5% increase in federal government expenditures, and you hit your headline number.
"You don't want (inventory build) because it will have to be worked off and cut production going forward," Cummins explains, noting that the initial GDP report started out at 2%, then got revised once to 2.7%, before ending up where it did today at 3.1%.
The lack of inflation means the Fed will be free to keep interest rates near zero and continue buying bonds to spur more economic growth.
Leading indicators dip in November. The index is intended to anticipate economic conditions three to six months out.
Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said the slight decline in the index November reflects an economy that remains weak as it faces the possibility of sharp increases in taxes and cuts in federal spending in January. |
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| MARKET PROFILE |
 |
WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 31 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
|
RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
 |
CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
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OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
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SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
|
SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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