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Week 05 - 2012
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Week 05 -2012 | From Jan 30 to Feb 03, 2012
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Jan. 30
Tue - Jan. 31
Wed - Feb. 01
Thu - Feb. 02
Fri - Feb. 03
       
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Economic Data for Week 05-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 05-2012 Last
Mon Personal Income Personal income increased $61.3 billion, or 0.5%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $47.1 billion, or 0.4%, in December.
0.50% M/M
Consumer DPI decreased $4.1 billion, or less than 0.1%. Disposable income is what is left over after taxes. People spent less and saved more in December. Consumer spending was basically flatlined.
Mon Consumer Spending Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $2.0 billion, or less than 0.1%. In November, personal income increased $7.4 billion, or 0.1%.
0.00% M/M
Consumer Consumer spending in December was sluggish. Weakness was in both durables and nondurables, reflecting in part a decline in auto sales and gasoline prices.
Mon Core PCE The core PCE index surprised all with a higher than expected figure after it saw an increase of 0.2% which is two times the expected figure.
0.20% M/M
Inflation Inflation at the headline and core levels was soft. PCE inflation should be tame as the CPI for December was flat and the core CPI rose 0.1%.
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index Same-store sales edged 1 tenth higher in the January 28 week where the year-on-year rate jumped 1.1 percentage points to plus 3.9% for the best reading of January.
0.10% W/W
Sales and Inventories The report says January sales got a lift from demand for cold weather goods, demand that was pent up during the unseasonable warmth of December.
Day2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) The employment cost index rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, up from the third quarter's 0.3% rise. The year-on-year rate of plus 2.0% is unchanged from the prior quarter.
0.40% Q/Q
Employment Wages and salaries (which make up about 70% of compensation costs) also increased 0.4%. Benefits, 30% of compensation, increased 0.6%.
Tue Johnson Redbook This month's colder weather has been boosting demand for winter goods, demand which was soft during the unusual warmth of December. Warm weather driving retail sales lower.
2.00% Y/Y
Sales and Inventories The same-store sales index shows a plus 2.0% rate, 5 tenths below the prior week and the worst reading since the Easter distortions of April and March.
Tue S&P Case-Shiller Index The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index dropped 1.3% to take the year-on-year drop to 3.7%. U.S. house prices drop in November � their third straight decline.
-0.7% M/M
Real Estate The tumble has been particularly rough in Atlanta, where prices fell 2.5% on the month to bring the annual drop in the city to 11.8%, the worst of the 20 cities measured.
Tue Chicago PMI Chicago PMI 60.2, weaker than forecast. January's Chicago PMI reading of 60.2 compares to 62.2 in December and a market consensus of 63.0, but remains quite healthy.
60.20 Level
Manufacturing Although analysts were forecasting a rise to 63.3 from December�s 62.5, the actual data was a disappointing 60.2.
Tue Consumer Confidence We take a look at events for the day and try to decipher the answer to this question. Consumer Confidence in the U.S. decreases to 61.1 in January.
61.10 Level
Consumer The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 61.1, from a revised 64.8 in December. Economists had expected a reading of 68.
Wed MBA purchase Applications Mortgage applications decreased 2.9% from one week earlier, for the week ending January 27, 2012.�The refinance index slipped 3.6% but volumes are high.
-2.90% W/W
Real Estate The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Wed Motor Vehicle Sales New-vehicle sales in the United States were unexpectedly strong in January, an early sign that the auto industry could have its best year since 2007, carmakers and analysts said Wednesday.
14.20 Millions
Sales and Inventories Sales increased 11.4% from January 2011. The industry�s annual selling rate, an important measure of its health, climbed to 14.18 million, the highest in more than two years.
Wed ADP Employment Report ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 170,000 private sector jobs in January. December 2011 was revised down from 325,000 to 292,000.
170,000 Jobs
Employment Regardless of the statistical differences between ADP and the BLS, this indicates a return to mediocre job growth potentially. The nation with an estimated 28 million people needs more jobs.
Wed ISM Manufacturing Index The closely watched ISM index, which measures activity reported by U.S. purchasing managers in the econonomically pivotal manufacturing sector, rose to 54.1 in January from 53.1 in December.
54.1 Level
Manufacturing Manufacturing in the U.S. grew in January at the fastest pace in seven months, a sign the industry will lead the U.S. expansion early this year.
Wed Construction Spending Multifamily construction will continue to improve given the ongoing shift from owning to renting and the lack of supply in the market. It will still be a very slow healing process.
1.5% M/M
View Chart Growth Construction spending in the U.S. rose in December at the fastest pace in four months, reflecting broad- based gains that signal the industry is stabilizing.
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Crude oil and gasoline inventories in the U.S. moved up during the week ended January 27. The week before, crude oil inventories increased by 3.60 million barrels to 334.80 million barrels.
4.20M Barrels
Commodity U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.20 million barrels to 338.90 million barrels last week, and are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Thu Challenger Job-Cut Report Layoff announcements rose to 53,486 in January from 41,785 in December in what is not a good signal for tomorrow's employment report. Challenger Report: Job Cuts Increased In January.
53,486
Employment Planned job cuts for the month of January totaled 53,486. That's a 28% increase from December and the highest total since the 116,000 cuts announced in September.
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Weekly U.S. jobless claims fall 12,000 to 367,000. Layoffs continue to trend lower and point to improvement for the labor market.
367,000
Employment U.S. jobless claims dropped by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 in the week ended Jan. 28. This is the third straight decline and the 8th decline in 9 weeks for the average
Thu Productivity and Costs Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 0.7% annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2011. Productivity and unit labor costs are volatile on a quarterly basis.
0.70% Q/Q
Chart View Business Activity The gain in productivity reflects increases of 3.6% in output and 2.9% in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Gas supplies dropped by 132 billion cubic feet last week. The overall storage level of 2.97 trillion cubic feet remains well above five-year levels for this time of year.
-132 bcf
Commodity Natural gas prices climbed 6% Thursday after the government said the nation's supplies shrank last week.
Thu U.S. Fed Balance Sheet For the February 1 week, the Fed's balance sheet expanded $5.4 billion, following a $0.1 billion uptick the prior week.

$5.4B

Government The gain was led by a $2.8 billion increase in "other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies).
Thu M2 Money Supply Reserve Bank credit for the February 1 week nudged up $0.4 billion after a $1.5 billion increase the prior period.
$4.5B W/W
Money Supply  
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates hit record lows in the week ending Feb. 2, as the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.87% from 3.98%.
3.87%
APR
Chart View Interest Rates The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also hit a record low, declining to 3.14% in the latest week from 3.24% in the prior week.
Fri Employment Situation An improvement from December, as the unemployment rate dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%. the lowered unemployment rate was a result of the U.S. adding more than 240,000 jobs in January.
8.30% Rate
Employment Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3%�
Fri ISM Non-Mfg Index January 2012 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business NMI at 56.8%. Business Activity Index at 59.5% New Orders Index at 59.4% Employment Index at 57.4%.
56.80 Level
Chart View Business Actvity Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 25th consecutive month.
Fri Factory Orders New orders for U.S. factory-made products posted a second straight monthly rise in December and business capital spending also picked up.
1.10% M/M
Manufacturing Orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1 per cent, slightly below Wall Street economist�s forecast for a 1.5-per-cent gain.
       
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 05 2012 RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates
1
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0.0 to 0.25 %
02. Growth
1
N/A
 
03. Inflation
1
Flat View
 
04. Employment
5
 
05. Real Estate
2
Negative View
These numbers fit with our view that the economy is at the stage where housing has turned the corner in activity if not yet in price action.
06. Manufacturing
2
1
 
07. Consumer
1
2
Negative View
US spenders are finally beginning to save money and lose extravagancy.
08. Sales & Inventories
4
 
09. Business Activity
1
 
10. Government
N/A
 
11. Balance of Payments
1
 
12. Money Supply
1
 
13. Shipping
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 05-2012
15
5
3
 
       
         
Glossary: Current week Current Week Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Flat View Flat View N/A Non Available
         
         
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WEEK 05-2012 ENDING FEB. 03
Reports Commentary

Although this is not good news for the retail industry which is highly dependent on personal expenditure it may be good news for households in general as it could imply that US spenders are finally beginning to save money and lose extravagancy.

Business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew more slowly than expected in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago's index of Midwest business activity.

Consumer Confidence Falls Short of Forecast in January.

The Conference Board said that even though consumers were more upbeat about jobs, they were less optimistic about income prospects. Rising gas prices have also taken a toll on sentiment.

The pace of job creation by private employers slowed, adding 170,000 positions in January, but still met expectations, acc.

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 170,000 from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP Employment Change shows increase in private payrolls, but by less than what had been widely expected. Earnings generally remain strong.

ISM Manufacturing Index improves, but less than had been expected.

Construction spending climbs more than anticipated. Construction Spending in U.S. Climbs Most in Four Months in Stability Sign.

Initial claims fell 12,000 in the January 28 week to a slightly lower-than-expected total of 367,000.

Productivity growth slowed in the 4Q 2011 despite a gain in output as hours worked rose faster. The headline numbers appear to have worsened but the key driver was a boost in hours worked and this is good for the economy. Long-term trends for productivity and unit labor costs remain on track and are favorable.

The Fed sees longer-term rates reaching between 4% and 4.5%. Most mortgage rates eased to all-time record lows this week as fourth quarter growth in the economy fell short of market projections," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. A year ago, the 30-year rate was at 4.81%.

The new commitment extends the prior statement that economic conditions were likely to keep rates at the historic low range of 0% to 0.25% until at least mid-2013.

Natural gas hit a 10-year low last month at $2.32 per 1,000 cubic feet, and the price is still less than half of it what it was in 2010.

The January jobs report posted stronger than expected with payroll gains and unemployment dip. Payroll jobs in January advanced 243,000 after jumping 203,000 in December

The NMI registered 56.8% in January, 3.8 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 53% registered in December, and indicating continued growth at a faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector.

NMI In January, the NMI registered 56.8%, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month. A reading above 50% indicates the non- manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 05-2012 ENDING FEB. 03
     
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 05 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE JAN 27
OPEN JAN 29
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
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