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Week 22 -2012 | From May 28 to June 01, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 22-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 22-2012 |
Last |
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Mon |
No Economic Data on Tap for Today |
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N/A |
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No Economic Reports |
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Tue |
Consumer Price Index |
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Inflation |
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Tue |
Retail Sales |
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Sales and Inventories |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
Retreating significantly this month is the Consumer confidence index which is no longer testing recovery highs. The index fell nearly 4 points to 64.9 vs a downwardly revised 68.7 in April. |
64.9 |
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Consumer |
This decline is in direct contrast to the consumer sentiment index which, in data released on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, broke out to new recovery highs. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook reports strength in the May 26 week but, like ICSC-Goldman earlier this morning, reports weakness overall for May. |
3.2% Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook's same-store sales growth of 3.2% is the second best showing since early April but it's not enough to lift the May-to-April comparison which it sees at minus 0.9%.� |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
Home prices were on the rise in March and February, up 0.1% in March for the adjusted composite 20 index and up 0.2% in February. |
0.1%
M/M
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Real Estate |
This is the first back-to-back monthly gain since the spring of 2010. The year-on-year rate of minus 2.6% is the best reading since December 2010. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Purchase applications fell 0.6% in the May 25 week with the four-week average down 0.7%. Declines here point to weakness for underlying home sales. |
-1.3% W/W |
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Real Estate |
On the refinancing side, applications fell 1.5% in the week despite broad declines in mortgage rates including a 2 basis point dip for conforming 30-year loans to 3.91%. |
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Wed |
ICSC Goldman Index |
ICSC-Goldman reports that European worries are "clearly" making US consumers more pessimistic. The ICSC index fell 0.5% in the May 26 week. |
-0.5 W/W |
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Sales and Inventories |
For the full month of May, the report forecasts even weaker year-on-year growth of just 2.0%. The ICSC index year-on-year growth of only plus 2.9% which is a two-month low. |
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Wed |
Pending Home Sales Index |
The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, fell 5.5% to 95.5, its lowest level since December, after a downwardly revised 3.8% increase in March. |
95.5 |
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Real Estate |
Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in April to a four-month low, undermining some of the recent optimism that the housing sector was touching bottom. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
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N/A |
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Commodity |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The initial claims data that show an unexpected climb to 383,000 in the May 26 week. This is up 10,000 from the prior week which was revised 3,000 higher to 373,000. |
383,000 Claims |
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Employment |
The four-week average is up 3,750 but the 374,500 level still compares well to the level at the end of April which was 384,250. |
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Thu |
ADP Employment Report |
ADP private payroll employment for April was estimated to rise by only 119,000 in what would be significant monthly slowing versus a revised 201,000 in March. |
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Employment |
The later released BLS figure for April private payrolls was a 130,000 gain. ADP estimates that May private payrolls rose 133,000 vs its revised rise of 113,000 for April. |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
Real GDP grew a modest 1.9%, compared to the initial estimate of 2.2% and fourth quarter pace of 3.0%, annualized. The second estimate matched analysts' forecast for a 1.9% rise. |
1.9% |
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Growth |
The nation's economy grew at a slower pace than previously reported in the first three months of this year, raising new concerns about economic weakness. |
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Thu |
Corporate Profits |
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Growth |
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Tue |
Chicago PMI |
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Manufacturing |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
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N/A |
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Commodity |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
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N/A |
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Government |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
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N/A |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year fixed mortgage fell by 0.03 percentage points to 3.75%,�setting yet another record for the fifth week in a row. Last year, 30-year loans averaged 4.55%. The new low can save borrowers about $47 a month for every $100,000 borrowed. Over a 30-year term, that comes to $16,756. |
3.75%
APR
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Interest Rates |
Rates on the 15-year fixed mortgage, which is popular among those looking to refinance, fell to 2.97%. Thi is the first time it has dropped below 3% since Freddie Mac began tracking the weekly data. Down from 3.74% a year ago, the new 15-year rate would lower borrowing costs to $689 a month for every $100,000 borrowed, a $37 savings compared to last year. |
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Fri |
Motor Vehicle Sales |
The number of vehicles sold in May fell a sizable 4% from April to an annual rate of 13.8 million which is the lowest rate of the year. |
13.8M |
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Sales and Inventories |
Weakness is centered in cars which on average cost less than trucks and which should help limit the monthly effect on the government's retail sales report which is measured in dollars. Still, May is a disappointment especially given industry and press reports that the month's sales were strong. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
The May employment report shows the economy slowing sharply. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May from 8.1% the prior month. Payroll jobs in May rose only 69,000, following increases of 77,000 in April (originally 115,000) and 143,000 in March (prior estimate up 154,000). |
8.20% |
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Employment |
Today's employment report is extremely disappointing. Businesses have brought hiring to a near halt even as demand is moderately healthy according to PCE spending and auto sales. |
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Fri |
Personal Income and Outlays |
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Consumer |
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Fri |
Consumer Spending Real PCE |
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Consumer |
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Fri |
Core PCE |
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Inflation |
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PMI Mfg |
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Fri |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
The ISM's new order index is up nearly 2 points to 60.1 for the strongest rate of monthly growth since April last year. New orders are life's blood and will trigger wider activity in the months ahead. |
53.5
Level |
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Manufacturing |
Economic activity in the�manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 34th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 36th consecutive month |
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Fri |
Construction Spending |
Construction spending posted a 0.3% gain in April, following an upwardly revised 0.3% boost the month before, may originally up 0.1%. Analysts forecast a 0.4% increase for the latest month. |
0.3% |
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Growth |
The gain in April was led by private residential outlays which increased 2.8% after a 0.4% rise in March. |
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| WEEK 15-2012 ENDING JUN. 01 |
Reports Commentary
Factory orders fell in January in the typical pattern of declines in the first month of the quarter. Nevertheless, new orders have been on a rising trend since March 2009 although they remain below their pre-recession peak..
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| MARKET PROFILE |
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WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 22 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
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RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
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RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
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CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
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OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
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SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
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SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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