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Week 42 -2012 | From Oct 15 to Oct 19, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 42-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 42-2012 |
Last |
|
Mon |
Retail Sales |
U.S. retail sales rose in September as Americans bought more cars and gasoline, while a gauge of consumer spending pointed to stronger-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter. |
1.1% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Retail sales increased 1.1% beating expectations after an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in August. Retail sales outside of autos, gasoline and building materials � a barometer of consumer spending known as core retail sales � rose 0.9% last month. Retail sales jump 1.1% in Sept. |
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Mon |
Empire Estate Mfg Index |
Manufacturing in New York state shrank for the third month in a row in October, though the pace of contraction eased. The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions. New York factory activity weak. |
-6.16 |
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Manufacturing |
The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to minus 6.16, from minus 10.41 in September. New orders improved to minus 8.97 from minus 14.03, while the index of the number of employees slipped to minus 1.08 from 4.26. |
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Mon |
Business Inventories |
Manufacturers� and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,601.7 billion, up 0.6% from July 2012 and up 5.3% from August 2011. |
0.6% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August was 1.28. The August 2011 ratio was 1.26. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Index |
Weekly retail sales were steady for retailers as a bout of colder weather drove customer traffic as consumers were in search of seasonal merchandise. |
0.0%
W/W
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Sales and Inventories |
Overall for the week ending October 13 weekly retail sales were flat (0.0%). On a year-over-year basis, the pace of retail sales slowed slightly from the prior reading to 2.7%. |
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Tue |
Consumer Price Index |
U.S. consumer prices rose in September as the cost of gasoline surged, posing a threat to consumers' spending power although faster inflation looked unlikely to derail the Federal Reserve's ultra-easy policy path |
0.6% |
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Inflation |
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% last month, in line with analysts' expectations and matching August's reading, data from the Labor Department showed on Tuesday. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.1% for a third month in a row. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook's same-store sales data continue to deteriorate at a year-on-year plus 1.8% in the October 13 week or Week 41. This sales report shows unusual strength that will make September a tough comparison for the nation's retailers. |
1.8% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook has been trending lower over the past month and is facing a 1.5% monthly decline for October sales. |
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Thu |
Treasury Intal Capital |
International purchases of U.S. financial assets rose in August as investors sought shelter from the debt crisis in Europe, boosted by purchases from France, the U.K. and China. |
$90B |
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Balance of Payments |
Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $90 billion during the month, up from net purchases of $67.2 billion in July, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. |
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Tue |
Industrial Production |
U.S. industrial production increased only modestly in September, held back by weak growth in factory output. US Industrial Production Rises 0.4%, Beats Forecast |
0.4% |
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Manufacturing |
The Federal Reserve said U.S. industrial production rose 0.4 percent in September after a 1.4 percent decline in August. The August decline partly reflected precautionary shutdowns before Hurricane Isaac hit the Gulf Coast. |
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Tue |
Housing Market Index |
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders climbed for a sixth straight month in October, adding to signs the real estate market is healing. |
41 |
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Real Estate |
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index increased to 41 this month, the highest since June 2006, from 40 in September, according to figures from the Washington-based group released today.� |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week, but demand for purchase loans, a leading indicator of home sales, reached the highest level since June, the association said. The refinance index, which has been near three year highs, fell back 5.0%. |
-4.2%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Purchase applications are on the rise, up 1% in the October 12 week for a fourth straight gain and at its best level since June. This index is pointing to strength for underlying home sales. |
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Wed |
Housing Starts |
Construction on new homes accelerated by 15% to an annual rate of 872,000 last month from a revised 758,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. The increase easily surpassed the 770,000 estimate of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. |
872K |
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Real Estate |
Housing starts increased 15% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000 units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. |
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Wed |
Building Permits |
Building permits also shot up to a four-year high, rising 11.6% to an annual rate of 894,000. August’s permits were revised down slightly, to 801,000. |
894K |
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Real Estate |
Permits for single-family homes rose 6.7% to an annualized 545,000 rate last month, while multi-dwelling permits increased 20.3% to 349,000. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Brent crude prices fell on Wednesday as rising U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles kept tepid global demand for petroleum in focus, while a weaker dollar and worries about supply disruptions limited losses. |
13.63M |
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Commodity |
EIA said crude stocks in the world's largest oil consumer rose 2.86 million barrels last week, more than the expected rise of 1.7 million barrels |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008. |
388K |
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Employment |
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 365,500 last week from 364,750. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 5.7 from minus 1.9 the month before. That topped economists' expectations for a gain to 1, according to a Reuters poll. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing. |
5.7
Level
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Business Activity |
Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region grew in October, snapping five months of contraction, although the pace of expansion was still modest as both new orders and employment contracted, a survey showed on Thursday. |
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Thu |
Leading Indicators |
The Conference Board said its index of leading indicators rose 0.6% in September after falling 0.4% in August and rising 0.4% in July. The previous months were revised down slightly. |
0.6% |
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Business Activity |
A separate measure of U.S. economic activity designed to give signals about the future posted a solid gain in September, rebounding after a dip in August. But the index is still signaling weak growth. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas� reaction to Thursday�s EIA report was well-timed to leverage a weak pullback. But its follow-through needs at least one more session to confirm. |
51bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 51 billion cubic feet in the October 12 week to 3,776 bcf. An injection of 50 bcf was expected. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew in the latest week with a jump in the holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed. |
-8.4B |
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Government |
The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.829 trillion on October 17, up from $2.794 trillion on October 10. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
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$-1.9B |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The rate on the most popular mortgage dipped to 3.37% from 3.39% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. Two weeks ago, the rate reached 3.36%, its lowest level on records dating to 1971. |
3.37% |
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|
Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage, often used for refinancing, set a record low of 2.66%, down from last week's 2.7%. |
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Fri |
Existing Home Sales Index |
The National Association of Realtors said on Friday that existing home sales dropped 1.7% last month to an seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75 million units. |
4.75M |
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|
Real Estate |
Home resales fell in September as the stock of properties on the market fell, a reminder that America's housing sector is a long way from a full recovery despite recent signs of improvement. |
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| WEEK 42-2012 ENDING OCT. 19 |
Reports Commentary
This report underscores the healthy demand for U.S. Treasury assets globally as the European uncertainty continues to weigh on investors� sentiment,� Millan Mulraine, senior U.S. strategist for TD Securities in New York, said after the report was released.
U.S. assets have maintained their attraction as European leaders struggle to resolve differences on renewed aid for Greece and as Spain holds out on tapping a bailout. The International Monetary Fund�s decision this month to cut its forecast for world economic growth to 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent for 2013 may further increase the lure of U.S. assets as a safe-haven investment.
The U.S. budget shortfall registered $1.09 trillion in fiscal 2012, down from $1.3 trillion in 2011, according to Treasury Department data issued Oct. 12 in Washington.
Congress is pushing the country closer to the �fiscal cliff� -- the $607 billion of automatic spending reductions and tax increases that will be triggered unless a government compromise is reached this year.
Store sales didn�t move much this morning, with the ICSC-Goldman reporting no change and a slight dip to 2.7% Y/Y gains, from 2.8% last week, while the Redbook came in at 1.8% Y/Y, compared to 1.6% a week ago.
The Redbook has been trending lower, and may result in decreased seasonal hiring over the next couple months.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in September the consumer price index rose 0.6%, a large gain and the same as the August figure.
The core CPI, which is all items less food and energy, rose only 0.1% though, also the same as in August. The report notes that the gasoline index rose 7.0% in September, following an already significant August jump of 9.0%. The food index increased 0.1% in September.
The Federal Reserve reports that the industrial production total index rose to 97.0 in September, 0.4% higher than the 96.6 reading in August. Although not a huge increase, it is far better than the 1.4% decline that was seen the month prior. The index is now up 2.8% year over year, unchanged from August. |
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| MARKET PROFILE |
 |
WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 42 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
|
RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
 |
CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
|
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|
OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
|
 |
SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
|
SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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