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Week 47 - 2012
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Week 47 -2012 | From Nov 19 to Nov 23, 2012
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Nov. 19
Tue - Nov. 20
Wed - Nov. 21
Thu - Nov. 22
Fri - Nov. 23
     
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Economic Data for Week 47-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 47-2012 LAST
Mon Existing Home Sales Index Existing-home sales rose 2.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million from a downwardly revised rate of 4.69 million in September. A prior September estimate pegged the level at a 4.75 million rate.
4.79M
Chart View Real Estate Sales of existing homes rose in October, with gains in three of four regions as activity continues to bounce off post-recession lows, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.
Positive View
Mon Housing Market Index The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 5 points to a seasonally adjusted level of 46, the highest point since May 2006.
46
Level
Chart View Real Estate Home-builder sentiment climbed in November for the seventh straight month to the highest level in more than six years, according to data released Monday that shows the continued improvement in the housing market.
Positive View
Tue ICSC Goldman Index Store sales improved this week despite growing�pessimistic�sentiment surrounding the shopping season.
2.5%
Chart View Sales and Inventories ICSC-Goldman store sales increased to 2.5% year over year this week, compared to 1.8% Y/Y last week.
Positive View
Tue Housing Starts Housing starts rose 3.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000, the highest rate since July 2008, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported. Starts are up 42% from last year, though the rate remains far below a bubble peak of almost 2.3 million in 2006.
894K
Chart View Real Estate The pace of home building rose to its highest level in more than four years in October, according to a government reading issued Tuesday. Housing starts highest in more than four years.
Positive View
Tue Building Permits Applications for building permits slipped 2.7% to an annual pace of 866,000. Despite that decline, the October reading was stronger than any other month other than September over the course of the last four years.
866K
Chart View Real Estate October building permits for single-family homes up 2.2%. �Building permits, a sign of future demand, hit a rate of 866,000 in October, down 2.7% from September, but up 30% from the prior year. Permits for single-family homes rose 2.2% in October to an annual rate of 562,000, while permits for structures with at least two units fell 10.6%.
Positive View
Tue Johnson Redbook Store sales are trendless leading up to the big last week of the month, according to Redbook whose same-store index remains flat at a year-on-year plus 1.8 percent.�
1.8%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Redbook store sales increased to 1.8% Y/Y this week, compared to 1.6% Y/Y last week.
Neutral View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for U.S. home mortgages eased last week as interest rates edged up, though demand for new loans improved.
-2.2%
Real Estate The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.2% in the week ended Nov 16.
Negative View
Wed Jobless/Initial Claims

First-time applications for unemployment benefits declined sharply last week but the number of new claims filed remains at high levels due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Sandy. However, the impact of the storm is likely to be temporary.

410K
Chart View Employment Initial jobless claims dropped by 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000 in the week ended Nov. 17. A less volatile measure of claims, the four-week moving average, rose by 9,500 to 396,250.
Negative View
Wed Consumer Sentiment Consumer sentiment in November gained slightly to a reading of 82.7 but wasn't as strong as initially estimated. Initially, they had reported a reading of 84.9 in November from a final October reading of 82.6.
82.7
Chart View Consumer

US consumer sentiment stalled at the end of November as uncertainty grew over federal tax and spending programs next year.

Neutral View
Wed Leading Indicators Leading economic index rises 0.2% in October. Positive: Four of the 10 indicators made positive contributions in October, led by the interest-rate spread
0.2%
Chart View Business Actvity The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators that are designed to signal business cycle peaks and troughs. . Negatvie: four indicators made negative contributions, led by building permits. There were neutral readings on two manufacturing-related indicators.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report We're going to see some crazy volatility in the market with rising geopolitics and rising economic uncertainty. The Middle East tensions could continue to give prices some life in the near term but we suspect that the bearish economic factors will be dominant
-1.5M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Brent crude rose above $110 per barrel on Wednesday on fears of supply disruption from the Middle East as clashes raged between Palestinians and Israelis despite overnight truce talks.
N/A
Wed EIA Natural Gas Report Natural gas in storage fell 38 billion cubic feet in the November 16 week to 3,873 bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 2 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 19 Bcf.
-38 bcf
Chart View Commodity Working gas in storage was 3,873 Bcf as of Friday, November 16, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 38 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 24 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 168 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,705 Bcf.
N/A
Thu China PMI The China HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 in November, the latest indicator of recovery in the real economy after data showing solid credit growth, firmer exports and rising industrial output in the previous month  
  U.S. Market Holidays This month's PMI reading above 50 is likely to be seen as a turning point by the market, particularly if it is born out by the final reading due on December 1 and by official indicators.  
Thu Thanksgiving There will be no U.S. Market Activity Today  
  U.S. Market Holidays    
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Average fixed mortgage rates in the U.S. declined over the past week, reaching fresh lows for a second straight week, according to mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac (FMCC).
3.91%
Chart View Interest Rates For the week ended Thursday, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.31%, compared with 3.34% the previous week and 3.98% a year earlier. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.63%, versus 2.65% a week earlier and 3.3% a year earlier.
Positive View
Fri Fed Balance Sheet The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank in the latest week with a lower holdings of federal government and agency securities, Fed data released on Friday showed.  
Chart View Government The Fed's balance sheet stood at $2.853 trillion on November 21, down from $2.859 trillion on November 14. Fed balance sheet contracts in latest week  
Fri M2 Money Supply    
Chart View Money Supply    
     
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WEEK 47-2012
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 47-2012
01. Interest Rates
Non Available
 
02. Growth
Non Available
 
03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
Non Available
Jobless Claims Still Taking Big Hit From Sandy Effects.
05. Real Estate
Non Available
 
06. Manufacturing
Non Available
 
07. Consumer
Non Available
Economic Uncertainty Stalls Consumer Sentiment.
08. Sales & Inventories
Non Available
 
09. Business Activity
Non Available
U.S. leading economic indicators point toward modest continued expansion.
10. Government
Non Available
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
Non Available
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 47-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 47 -2012
01. Commodities
Non Available
Oil and Natural Gas: Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
02. Bond Market
Non Available
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
03. S&P 500 Index
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
04. U.S. Dollar and FX
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
05. Major Economies
Non Available
Bond and stock prices are both influenced by Major Economies like China.
TOTAL WEEK 47-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
Week 47, 2012 has been rated...
   
         
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LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 47-2012 ENDING NOV. 23
Reports Commentary

While still far from 2005 levels above 7 million, home sales have recovered from a July 2010 low of 3.3 million. Other housing-market indicators have shown signs of improvement, with gains in prices, sales and homebuilder sentiment.

Record-low interest rates for mortgages are feeding demand.The low inventory number is a sign that housing markets are tightening, and that builders will continue ramping up on new construction to fill demand.

This Week Potential Shocks to Investors:

1. China Hard Landing: China is an Export Driven Economy
2. European Bank Crisis
3. Fiscal Cliff Falloff
4. Oil Surge
5. Earning Disappointments

The housing market has been showing numerous signs of recovery in recent months. Demand for homes have been helped by mortgage rates at record lows.
The Federal Reserve's decision to buy $40 billion in mortgages every month is likely to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. The low mortgage rates, coupled with affordable housing prices and an improving jobs market have helped to restart home sales.

The upcoming Black Friday and following Cyber Monday have more anticipation and momentum than ever, so it is expected we see a strong final week of November.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday urged Congress and the Obama administration to strike a budget deal to avert tax increases and spending cuts that could trigger a recession next year

Before Sandy, jobless claims had fluctuated between 360,000 and 390,000 this year, underscoring sluggish hiring trends in the U.S. economy. Applications for jobless benefits soared in the prior week as the deadly late-season superstorm slammed into the Northeast. Claims rose a revised 90,000 to 451,000 in the prior week, up from the initial estimate of a 78,000 increase to 439,000. That was the biggest weekly rise in claims since Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in the late summer of 2005.

There are some signs the job market is improving. Employers added 171,000 jobs in October and hiring in August and September was stronger than first estimated. The economy gained an average of 174,000 jobs a month in the July-September quarter. That's up from 67,000 a month in April through June.

China's vast manufacturing sector saw expansion accelerate in November for the first time in 13 months, preliminary results from a factory survey showed, a sign that the pace of economic growth has revived after seven consecutive quarters of slowdown.

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 47-2012 ENDING NOV 23
     
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Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 47 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE MAR 02
OPEN MAR 04
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
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