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Week 34- 2012
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Week 34 -2012 | From Aug 20 to Aug 24, 2012
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Time
Mon - Aug. 20
Tue - Aug. 21
Wed - Aug. 22
Thu - Aug. 23
Fri - Aug. 24
       
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Economic Data for Week 34-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 34-2012 LAST
Mon Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.13 Vs -0.05 expected. The employment and sales/orders components softened while housing and production/income improved.
-0.13
Growth Although, Economic activity improved in July but still was under historical trend, the 3-month average fell but only slightly to minus 0.21 from June's revised minus 0.18.�
Positive View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index This morning the ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales index rose 3.1% year over year, while the Redbook sales index gained 1.9% year over year.
-1.5%
M/M
Chart View Sales and Inventories ICSC-Goldman Store Sales: continued to post mixed results with sequential performance off by 1.5% from the prior week, while the year-over-year pace was a healthy 3.1%.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook Neither index is showing overly positive, and the Redbook is still trickling along its lows of the last couple of years, still Redbook sales index gained 1.9% year over year.
1.9%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Not much growth in August sales after inflation is accounted for. It shows why skepticism remains high about the July US retail sales beat
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled last week, with demand for refinancing drying up as mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since late June.
-7.4%
Chart View Real Estate The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 7.4% in the week ended Aug 17.
Negative View
Wed Existing Home Sales Index U.S. existing home sales rose 2.3% in July to 4.47 million from 4.37 million in the previous month but missed analysts' estimates.
4.47M
Chart View Real Estate Mortgage interest rates have been at record lows this year while rents have been rising at faster rates. It's pretty much in line with market forecasts,.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report The US Energy Information Administration has reported that the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, for August 17, yielded a figure of -5.412M, compared with the previous figure of -3.699M.
N/A
View Chart Commodity The U.S. EIA said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.40 million barrels to 360.70 million barrels last week, but are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
Non Available
Wed FOMC Minutes 5 for 01 August The Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another round of monetary stimulus "fairly soon" unless the economy improves considerably, minutes from the central bank's August meeting show.
N/A
Interest Rates The minutes of the July 31-Aug. 1 meeting of the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee showed a central bank worried about signs of decelerating growth � and itching to take action.
Negative View
Wed CHINA PMI 1039 pm The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 47.8 in August, its lowest level since November, from 49.5 in July.����
47.8
Chart View Interest Rates After hovering for several months just under the 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction, the index is now at levels rarely seen since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
Negative View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Applications for U.S. jobless benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 in the week ended Aug. 18. The average of new claims over the past month climbed by 3,750 to 368,000.
372K
View Chart Employment Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 368,000 from an original reading of 366,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.
Negative View
Tue New Home Sales The sale of single-family homes climbed 3.6% to an annual rate of 372,000 last month from 359,000 in June and matching the increase in May. The level of sales in May and July were the highest in more than two years.
372K
Chart View Real Estate New-home sales averaged almost 368,000 in the past three months, compared to 303,000 in the same three-month period a year ago � a 21% increase
Positive View
Tue FHFA House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index Rises 0.7% Beating Expectations. The FHFA house price index climbed 0.7% month-over-month in June.The number was up 1.8% from the first quarter.
0.7%
Chart View Real Estate The 3.6% Year-to-Year increase was its strongest since 2006, and followed four successive years of price decline. Despite the improvement, prices remained 15.3% below the 2007 average.
Positive View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural Gas Storage in the week ending at 17 rose from 20 to 47, above market consensus of 40. Inventories didn't approach 3.3 tcf in 2011 until the end of September.
47 bcf
View Chart Commodity The data, from the Energy Information Administration, was expected to show gas inventories rose by 38 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 17.That increase would be below last year's 66-bcf rise and the five-year average of 53-bcf for the week.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.808 trillion on August 22, down from $2.816 trillion on August 15.
$-7.7B
View Chart Government The Federal Reserve's balance sheet contracted on the week with reduced holdings of Treasuries and agency debt, Fed data released on Thursday showed.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$51.6B
View Chart Money Supply  
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates For the week ended Thursday, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.66%, compared with 3.62% the previous week and 4.22% a year earlier. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.89%, versus 2.88% a week earlier and 3.44% a year earlier.
3.66%
APR
Chart View Interest Rates Average fixed mortgage rates in the U.S. continued to move higher over the past week--marking the fourth week in a row--as more signs emerged of improvement in the housing market.
Positive View
Fri Durable Goods Orders Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods jumped 4.2% in July as demand for airlines and autos surged. Orders for core capital goods excluding defense and transportation dropped a sharp 3.4% last month. These orders also fell 2.7% in June.
4.2%
Chart View Manufacturing New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in July, but a second straight month of declines in a gauge of planned business spending pointed to a slowing growth trend in the factory sector. Durable goods orders report looks very impressive, but nothing could be further from the truth. This is a very weak report
Negative View
       
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 34 2012 Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates      
N/A
us-fixed-mortgage-rates-on-rise
02. Growth      
N/A
 
03. Inflation      
N/A
 
04. Employment      
N/A
 
05. Real Estate      
N/A
Although some housing markets are still facing significant challenges, house prices were quite strong in most areas in the second quarter
06. Manufacturing      
N/A
 
07. Consumer      
N/A
 
08. Sales & Inventories      
N/A
 
09. Business Activity      
N/A
 
10. Government      
N/A
 
11. Balance of Payments      
N/A
 
12. Money Supply      
N/A
 
13. Shipping      
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 34-2012
0
0
0
N/A
 
       
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 34-2012 ENDING AUG. 24
Reports Commentary

Many Fed officials supported extending the central bank's guidance for the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike, currently set at late 2014, further into the future. But they decided to defer the decision to the Fed's Sept. 12-13 meeting, when the central bank will release a new round of economic forecasts.

The Congressional Budget Office said failure to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of expiring tax cuts and automatic spending reductions would cause the gross domestic product to shrink 0.5 percent in 2013. Previously, the nonpartisan CBO forecast full-year GDP growth of 0.5 percent.

For the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, the agency shaved its U.S. budget deficit forecast to $1.128 trillion from $1.171 trillion, mostly due to lower-than-expected spending for Medicare and Medicaid.

The U.S. government will run a budget deficit of $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, or 7.3% of gross domestic product, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in a new report on Wednesday. The new deficit estimate is slightly lower than the agency's March estimate of $1.2 trillion.�

The U.S. economy will contract instead of expanding in 2013 if scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts go into effect in January, the Congressional Budget Office warned on Wednesday.

Cheap prices and rock-bottom interest rates have helped boost demand, especially among younger couples who put off home ownership in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession. The median price of new homes, for example, dropped 2.1% to $224,200 last month from $229,100 in June.

If the current sales pace remains constant over the next five months, economists say the industry could add to the nation’s growth in 2012 for the first time in several years.

Yet the housing market is still weak by historical standards despite gathering momentum. If the U.S. were growing at a healthy pace, economist say, new home sales would likely average more than 1 million a year. Sales typically surge after a recession ends, but that didn’t happen after the last downturn.

Firms are simply not willing to pull the trigger on big discretionary investment projects until they have more clarity on the policy backdrop for the next four years

Looking ahead, there‘s little reason to believe orders will accelerate rapidly anytime soon. One big reason is the threat of the so-called fiscal cliff � the prospect of higher taxes and deep government spending cuts slated to kick in on Jan. 1 unless Washington rescinds them.

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 34-2012 ENDING AUG 24
     
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