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Week 11 - 2012
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Week 11 -2012 | From Mar 12 to Mar 16, 2012
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Mar. 12
Tue - Mar. 13
Wed - Mar. 14
Thu - Mar. 15
Fri - Mar. 16
     
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Economic Data for Week 11-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 11-2012 Last
Mon Treasury Budget The U.S. government ran a $231.7 billion budget deficit in February. This is up substantially from the deficit of $222.5 billion in the same month one year ago. Outlays were $335.1 billion.
$-231.7
Billions
Government Receipts were $103.4 billion in February, about $7 billion lower than receipts in February 2011. Improvement underway in the economy is reflected in improvement for the Treasury's budget deficit.
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The ICSC Index edged up 0.7 the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, rising for the second-straight week.
0.7% W/W
Sales and Inventories The debut of more color in fashion appeared to drive sales at apparel stores over the last week. Warmer-than-normal weather also contributed to spring apparel demand.
Tue Retail Sales The 1.1% advance followed a 0.6% increase in January that was larger than previously estimated. Retail Sales in U.S. Climb by Most in Five Months.
1.1%
Sales and Inventories Sales rose in 11 of 13 categories, including auto dealers and clothing stores, showing gains in demand were broad based.
Tue Johnson Redbook Redbook: US Retail Sales Up 0.2% In First 2 Weeks Of March Vs Feb. The index's rise compared with a targeted 0.4% gain. Sales for the week rose 3.3% year-over-year.
3.3% W/W
Sales and Inventories National chain store sales edged up 0.2% in the first two weeks of March from February, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday.
Tue Business Inventories Businesses in the U.S. increased inventories in January at a faster pace than projected, led by the biggest jump in automobile stockpiles in more than a year.
0.7%
Sales and Inventories The 0.7% rise followed a revised 0.6% advance the prior month that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington.
Tue FOMC Meeting #2 Day 1 of 1 Fed Leaves Policy Unchanged, Sees Better Economy. The U.S. Fed acknowledged recent signs of strength in the economy and said recent financial market strains have eased.
N/A
Interest Rates The U.S. central bank described the economy as "expanding moderately," unchanged from its January statement and said growth still faced significant downside risks.
Wed MBA purchase Applications The index of overall mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.4% in the week ended March 9
-2.4%
Real Estate Demand for home purchases picked up for the third week in a row last week, though applications for refinancing sagged.
Wed Current Account The current account deficit widened much more than expected to $124.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, as imports rose and exports dropped,
$-124.1
Billions
Balance of Payments The current account deficit, widened to 3.24% of gross domestic product. That compared to a revised third-quarter current account deficit of $107.6 billion, or 2.84% of GDP.
Wed Import and Export Prices U.S. import prices increased 0.4% in February. Higher fuel prices more than offset declining nonfuel prices.
5.5% Y/Y
Inflation The price index for imports was unchanged in the two previous months. U.S. export prices also rose 0.4% in February after a 0.2% advance in January.
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Oil inventories continue to climb, up 1.8 million barrels in the March 9 week to 347.5 million barrels which is a six-month high. Oil price decreases when oil inventories are increasing.
1.8M Barrels
Commodity Decreasing demand from refineries, operating at a soft capacity rate of 82.7%, has been the key factor behind the oil build.
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Jobless claims last week fell to their lowest point in four years, matching a level that was also reached a month ago and sparking more optimism that the employment market may be on the mend.
351,000 Claims
Employment Labor Department figures showed that applications for jobless insurance payments for the week that ended March 10 slipped by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 351,000.
Thu Producer Price Index Reflecting higher energy prices, headline PPI jumped 0.4% in February. Marking the largest monthly gain in five months, prices for finished wholesale goods increased 0.4% in February.
0.4%
Inflation Excluding food and energy, wholesale prices increased a more moderate 0.2%, but remain elevated on a year-over-year basis. PPI inflation is likely a little higher than the Fed would like.
Thu Empire State Mfg Survey The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded at a moderate pace.
20.2%
Manufacturing The general business conditions index was little changed at 20.2, its fourth consecutive positive reading. The Empire State report shows a month-to-month slowing for new orders and for shipments.
Thu Treasury Intal Capital The closely watched figure of net long-term securities transactions showed total buying of $101 billion in long-term U.S. securities in January. The figure was $19.1 billion the month before.
$101.0
Billions
Chart View Balance of Payments China remained the top holder of U.S. Treasury debt in January, but Japan threatened to take the No. 1 position with another month of record holdings.
Thu Philadelphia Fed Survey Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region edged higher in March to its highest reading since last April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported Thursday.
12.5 Level
Business Activity The bank's business condition index rose to 12.5 in March from 10.2 in February. This is the fourth straight monthly gain.
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural gas for April delivery fell 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.279 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange on March 15.
-64 bcf
Commodity The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas in storage fell by 64 billion cubic feet to 2.369 trillion cubic feet for the week ended March 9.
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The Fed's balance sheet in the latest week expanded on moves into mortgage-backed securities while there were indications of further improvement in European financial markets.
$8.8B
Government For the March 14 week, the Fed's balance sheet grew $8.8 billion after dropping $41.0 billion the prior period.
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$15.3B
Money Supply  
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose, but hovered near historic lows this week, making home-buying and refinancing more attractive to those who can qualify.
3.92% APR
Chart View Interest Rates The average on 15-year fixed mortgages rose to 3.16% from a record low 3.13% last week. The rate on 30-year loans increased to 3.92% from 3.88% the previous week.
Fri Consumer Price Index On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in February after rising 0.2% in January. The core rate eased.
0.4% M/M
Inflation The cost of living in the U.S. rose in February by the most in 10 months, reflecting a jump in gasoline that failed to spread to other goods and services: higher energy costs.
Fri Industrial Production Industrial production in the U.S. was little changed in February, restrained by a slowdown in manufacturing and a decline in natural gas extraction.
0.0% M/M
Manufacturing U.S. Industrial Production Was Little Changed in February. The output last month at factories, mines and utilities compared with a median projection for a 0.4% gain.
Fri Consumer Sentiment A first reading of U.S. consumer confidence in March unexpectedly fell. We can of course point our finger directly at gasoline prices, which are up another 7 cents week over week.
74.3 Level
Consumer Consumer sentiment has declined for the first time since August, dipping to 74.3 in a preliminary reading for March from a final level of 75.3 for February.
     
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 11 2012 RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates
2
Positive View
 
02. Growth
N/A
 
03. Inflation
2
1
Negative View
 
04. Employment
1
Positive View
 
05. Real Estate
1
Negative View
 
06. Manufacturing
1
Positive View
 
07. Consumer
1
Flat View
 
08. Sales & Inventories
4
Positive View
 
09. Business Activity
1
1
Positive View
 
10. Government
2
1
Positive View
 
11. Balance of Payments
1
Negative View
 
12. Money Supply
1
Flat View
 
13. Shipping
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 11-2012
11
4
5
Positive View
 
   
         
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LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 11-2012 ENDING MAR. 16
Reports Commentary

Factory orders fell in January in the typical pattern of declines in the first month of the quarter. Nevertheless, new orders have been on a rising trend since March 2009 although they remain below their pre-recession peak..

 

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE FOR WEEK 11-2012 ENDING MAR 16
     
         
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 11 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE MAR 08
OPEN MAR 10
SUPPORT 1
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