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Week 04 - 2012
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Week 04 -2012 | From Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2012
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Jan. 23
Tue - Jan. 24
Wed - Jan. 25
Thu - Jan. 26
Fri - Jan. 27
     
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Economic Data for Week 04-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 04-2012 Last
Mon Non Reports for Our Global Vision There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday.
N/A
No Reports  
Tue FOMC Meeting #1 Day 1 of 2 The Federal Reserve's 2 day monetary policy meeting has begun and policymakers will be explaining their Fed funds forecasts in a way that would minimize volatility.
N/A
Interest Rates The most important thing to look for tomorrow is the timing of the first interest rate increase - will it be in late 2013 or early 2014?
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index slipped 1.4% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted basis.
-1.4% W/W
Sales and Inventories From the Northwest to the Northeast strong winter storms affected consumer demand this past week as it limited consumers' ability to shop.
Tue Johnson Redbook National chain store sales fell 1.6% in the first three weeks of January from December. Sales for the week climbed 2.5% year-over-year.
2.5% Y/Y
Sales and Inventories The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 2.9% from last year, also equaling the target.
Wed MBA purchase Applications The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 5% in the week ended Jan 20.
-5.0% W/W
Real Estate Applications for U.S. home mortgages retreated last week, giving back some of the previous week's surge as interest rates rose
Wed FHFA House Price Index U.S. home prices fell 1.8% in November from a year earlier, as foreclosures held back a recovery in property values. But M/M 1.0% increase.
1.0% M/M
Real Estate According to the FHFA, house prices in November rebounded 1.0% after declining 0.7% in October. November's number came in higher than expectations for a 0.1% decrease.
Wed Pending Home Sales Index Pending home sales drop from 19-month high hit in November, but remain at higher level. The index of sales agreements fell 3.5 per cent last month to a reading of 96.6. M/M -3.5%.
96.6 Level
Real Estate But the reading is still the second highest since April 2010, the last month that buyers could qualify for a federal home-buying tax credit. A reading of 100 is considered healthy.
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Stocks of oil show a build for the 4th time in 5 weeks, up 3.6 million barrels to 334.8 million. To put pressure on Iran�s nuclear policies., EU has imposed sanctions on Iranian oil.
3.6M Barrels
Commodity Inventory and output data from the oil sector are pointing to economic weakness in what is a counter-indication compared to the bulk of indicators which are pointing to improvement.
Wed FOMC Meeting #1 Day 2 of 2 The Federal Reserve�s said that rates could stay extremely low for another three years provides juice for risk assets like stocks, but signals more worries ahead for the economy.
0.25% Rate
Chart View Interest Rates The Fed also took the historic step of setting an inflation target of 2%, when it released its forecast. Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0.0 to 0.25 %
Thu Durable Goods Orders Orders for durable goods, items which last over 3 years, in the US rose 3% in December 2011. It is the fifth rise in the past six months and follows a 4.3% rise in November.
3.0% M/M
Manufacturing The latest increase could be in part attributed to aircraft orders, but even after stripping transportation products out the underlying trend has accelerated.
Thu Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to +0.17 in December from -0.46 in November.
0.17 Level
Growth The index�s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased from -0.19 in November to -0.08 in December-- its highest value since March 2011.
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Seasonally adjusted initial claims increased to 377,000 for the week ended Jan. 21. The previous week saw the lowest level for new claims in nearly four years at 356,000.
377K Claims
Employment U.S. jobless claims rise slightly, but long-term trend remains cause for optimism. However, the measure�s longer-term downward trend signals continuing improvement in the labor market.
Thu New Home Sales Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in December for the first time in four months, capping the slowest year on record for builders.
307K Level
Real Estate Purchases of single-family properties decreased 2.2% to a 307,000 annual pace. Last year marked the worst year for the industry in records going back to 1963.
Thu Leading Indicators The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% in December. The Leading Economic Index, which has risen for the past seven months, climbed in December to 94.3.
0.4% M/M
Business Activity In December, the gain was widespread among the leading indicators, suggesting economic conditions should improve in early 2012.
Thu Fixed Mortgage Rates Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.11%, up 5 basis points from 4.06%. The Fed sees longer-term rates reaching between 4% and 4.5%
3.91% APR
Interest Rates The new commitment extends the prior statement that economic conditions were likely to keep rates at the historic low range of 0% to 0.25% until at least mid-2013.
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural gas in storage fell 192 billion cubic feet in the January 20 week to 3,098 bcf. A withdrawal of 180 bcf was expected.
-192 bcf
Commodity Despite natural gas prices falling to near 10-year lows last week demand for gas will be much higher than oil in the long term with the Asia-Pacific region driving the sector's growth.
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The Fed's balance sheet edged up $0.1 billion after expanding $20.2 billion the prior week. "Other assets"; grew $2.2 billion. Total assets for the January 25 week stood at $2.922 trillion.
0.1B Assets
Government The advance was led by a $10.0 billion rise in holdings of Treasuries which was offset by an $11.8 billion drop in mortgage-backed securities
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$8.1B
Money Supply  
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 3.98% this week. That's up from 3.88% the previous week, which was the lowest level on record.
3.98%
APR
Chart View Interest Rates The average on the 15-year fixed�mortgage�also rose to 3.24%, from 3.17% the previous week. The 15-year�mortgage�hit a record low of 3.16% two weeks ago.
Fri Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years, but the GDP was weaker-than-expected Q4 U.S. GDP which it was +2.8% annualized versus expectations of +3.0% annualized.
2.80% Rate
Growth U.S. GDP expanded at a 2.8% annual rate, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8% clip of the prior three months. Economists expectations was a 3.0% rate, we rated positive.
Fri Consumer Sentiment US consumer confidence rose for the second month in a row, to an eight-month high in December. One reason for the rise in sentiment has been steady improvement in the labor markets.
75.0 Level
Consumer The University of Michigan preliminary January reading on its overall index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.0 from 69.9 in December for the fifth month of gains and the highest level since May 2011.
     
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 04 2012 Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates
2
1
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0.0 to 0.25 %
02. Growth
2
 
03. Inflation
N/A
 
04. Employment
1
Though the unemployment rate has improved, the jobs market remains a major challenge.
05. Real Estate
4
The housing market is still struggling as seen in today's housing data. Pending Home Sales in December 2011 Projects a Weak January
06. Manufacturing
1
Manufacturing is gaining strength and points to a recovery that actually may be gaining momentum despite Fed skepticism about the outlook.
07. Consumer
1
 
08. Sales & Inventories
2
 
09. Business Activity
1
 
10. Government
N/A
 
11. Balance of Payments
1
 
12. Money Supply
1
 
13. Shipping
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 04-2012
8
6
3
 
   
         
Glossary: Current week Current Week Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Flat View Flat View N/A Non Available
         
         
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WEEK 04-2012 ENDING JAN. 27
Reports Commentary

Both Redbook and ICSC-Goldman say heavy weather has been holding down sales so far this month.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications slipped 5.2%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases was off 5.4%.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) pending home sales index fell 3.5% month-over-month. The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes fell in December after hitting the highest level in a year and a half a month earlier.

The increase in contract signings is another indication that the troubled housing market improved at the end of last year going into 2012. further gains would be needed to reduce the millions of unsold foreclosed homes sitting idle on the market.

The price of light crude, supported by supply issues tied to Iran and not by prospects of strengthening demand, is up about 50 cents to the $98.50 area.

The Fed now sees GDP growth between 2.2% and 2.7% for 2012, down from 2.5 to 2.9%, and 2013 growth of 2.8 to 3.2%, down from 3% to 3.5%. Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0.0 to 0.25 % .

The Federal Open Market Committee said Wednesday that the long-term inflation goal is 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures.

The Fed also forecasts GDP growth between 2.2% and 2.7% this year, an unemployment rate between 8.2% and 8.5% and PCE inflation between 1.4% and 1.8%.

Manufacturing is picking up steam as December durables were strong and above expectations.

The threat of further price declines in home sales may be dissuading some Americans from buying a new home even with mortgage rates near all-time lows and more people finding work.

we won't see a meaningful increase as long as new homes are competing with those existing homes. Builders continue to contend with a number of existing homes that are deeply discounted.

December�s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic slack reflected in this level of the CFNAI- MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

Weekly jobless claims were in line with expectations, rising 21,000 to 377,000 in the week ended Jan. 21. Meanwhile, December's orders for durable goods surged 3%, above estimates of a 2% gain.

The economy ended 2011 on a fairly positive note, but the composition of growth in the last quarter is not favorable for growth early this year.

The nation's gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced -- grew at an annual rate of 2.8% between October and December. That is up from 1.8% growth in the third quarter and 1.3% in the second quarter. It was the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010.

The Fed warned the economy still faced big risks, a suggestion the euro zone debt crisis could still hit hard. Expectations of soft growth led the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to say it expected to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels at least through late 2014.

The Fed is attempting to shield the economy from a potentially more severe recession in Europe. Even though the economy improved last quarter there are a number of headwinds and a lot of uncertainty surrounding Europe, emerging markets and also U.S. fiscal policy.

The weaker-than-expected Q4 U.S. GDP which it was +2.8% annualized versus expectations of +3.0% annualized. Aslo Q4 personal consumption grew +2.0%, weaker than expectations of +2.4%.

Concern the European debt crisis may worsen after credit-default swaps to insure Portuguese government debt rose to a record.

Unexpected increase in Jan U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence to an 11-month high (+1.0 to 75.0 versus expectations of unchanged at 74.0).

169 companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings results since Jan 9 have beaten analysts' estimates

Low demand and high inventory levels in the U.S. Natural Gas has deterred some companies from future investments

 

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE FOR WEEK 04-2012 ENDING JAN. 27
     
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 04 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE JAN 20
OPEN JAN 22
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
         
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