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Week 30 -2012 | From Jul 23 to Jul 27, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 30-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 30-2012 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
The economy did not fall of a cliff in June. The June 2012 (CFNAI) release shows the 3 month moving average improved somewhat but has remained for the last 4 months in negative territory. |
N/A |
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Growth |
The CFNAI improved to -0.15 in June from a revised - 0.48 in May, while its more-representative three-month moving average rose to -0.20 from -0.38. |
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Mon |
China Flash PMI |
At 10:30 am China Time, July 24, 2012. The HSBC Flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2 in June, rising close to the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. The increase was driven by a jump in the output sub-index to 51.2 - the best showing since October 2011. |
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Growth |
China's manufacturing output in July grew at its fastest pace in nine months, helping lift an index of activity in the country's overall factory sector to its highest level since February, a survey on Tuesday showed. |
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Thu |
HSBC China Flash PMI |
July flash manufacturing PMI reading was 49.5, and up from June's final reading of 48.2. The July reading was a five month high. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The important manufacturing output index climbed to a nine month high of 51.2 from 49.3 in June. This reading has changed direction and now shows expansion.�
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China |
The flash reading contains only directional indications. For example although output is now expanding, both new orders and new export orders are contracting albeit at a slower pace while employment is contracting at a faster pace. Both output prices and input prices were declining at a slower rate. According to Markit, the improvement in the overall index suggests that the earlier easing measures are beginning to work.� |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 1% in week 29, july 21. |
1.0% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Retail Sales improved over the prior week, but continued a choppy and uneven performance across retail categories, adding back-to-school categories got a boost. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook Research reported that same-store sales increased 1.3% over the prior year for the third week of July, the weakest performance in over 15 months and following a 1.7% gain in the prior week. |
1.3% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Month-to-date, sales increased 1.7% compared to last year and fell 1.3% relative to June. Redbook said �Sales were below plan in the third week. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
Home prices climbed 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, following a revised 0.7% increase in April, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday. More progress is being made in the housing sector as home prices are actually having a string of gains. |
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Real Estate |
From May 2011 to May 2012, prices rose 3.7%, the agency said, although the index is still 17% below its all-time peak set in April 2007. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications posted the biggest jump in seven months, rising 21.6% as mortgage interest rates hit record lows. |
N/A |
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Real Estate |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages jumped last week on a surge in demand for refinancing, though purchase activity edged down, an industry group said on Wednesday. |
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Wed |
New Home Sales |
The Commerce Department said sales of new homes plunged 8% last month, the steepest drop since February last year. |
350K |
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Real Estate |
Sales in the Northeastern U.S. plummeted 60%. The decline suggests a weaker job market is dampening any pickup in the industry.� |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Domestic stocks of crude, excluding oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose unexpectedly by 2.72 million barrels to 380.11 million barrels in the week to July 20, the Energy Information Administration reported. |
N/A |
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Commodity |
The rise in crude stocks came as U.S. crude imports rose 695,000 barrels per day to 9.59 million bpd. U.S. crude oil futures fell after the data. By 10:35 a.m. EST (1335 GMT), they were down 85 cents at $87.65 per barrel. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
US unemployment aid applications fall by 35,000 to 353,000, reversing previous week's gain. . A more accurate barometer of labor-market trends, the four-week claims average, declined by 8,750 to 367,250,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. |
353,000 |
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Employment |
The number of people who filed applications for unemployment benefits fell by 35,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 353,000, marking the third straight week of sharp swings that reflects the government's difficulty in assessing employment levels in the auto industry |
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Thu |
Durable Goods Orders |
Orders for U.S. durable goods climbed more than projected in June as a surge in demand for aircraft and military hardware overshadowed a slump in business equipment spending. �Orders�excluding�the volatile transportation category unexpectedly dropped 1.1% in June, the most in five months. |
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Manufacturing |
Overall orders increased 1.6% as demand for aircraft surged, after an upwardly revised 1.6% increase the prior month. Details of the report were generally weak. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
U.S. house prices rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from April to May, according to the FHFA�s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.8% increase in April was revised downward to a 0.7% increase. |
0.8% |
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Real Estate |
For the 12 months ending in May of 2012, U.S. prices rose 3.7%. The U.S.index is 17.0% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the May 2004 index level. |
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Thu |
Pending Home Sales |
Home buyers signed fewer contracts to buy existing homes in June, despite renewed optimism in the overall housing recovery. |
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Real Estate |
The pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.4% from May. It is up 9.5% from June of 2011. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage grew by 26 billion cubic feet to 3.189 trillion cubic feet for the week ended July 20. |
N/A |
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Commodity |
According to EIA, the build in the comparable week last year was 48 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for that week is an increase of 61 billion cubic feet. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.833 trillion on July 25, down from $2.842 trillion the previous week. |
N/A |
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Government |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank in the latest week, Fed data released on Thursday showed. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
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N/A |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.49% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 26, 2012, down from last week 3.53%. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.55% . |
3.49%
APR
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Interest Rates |
15-year FRM this week averaged 2.80% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.83%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.66%. |
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Fri |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., rose at a sluggish 1.5% clip in the second quarter. Weak consumer spending was the main reason the economy grew at an annual pace of just 1.5% in the April-June quarter. |
1.5% |
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Growth |
The U.S. economy took a turn for the worse in the spring as consumers pared spending and businesses invested at a slower pace, with little sign growth will sharply accelerate anytime soon. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
Despite a slight upward revision from the preliminary report, a gauge of consumer sentiment in July came in at the lowest point of the year, according to an indicator released Friday. |
72.3
Level |
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Consumer |
The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters final reading of consumer sentiment reached 72.3, up from an initial read of 72 but below the 73.2 of June. |
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| WEEK 30-2012 ENDING JUL. 27 |
Reports Commentary
We find both positive and negative turns in store sales this morning, as the ICSC-Goldman reports an increase in year over year growth to 2.8%, from 2.4% Y/Y last week, and the Redbook reports a decrease in Y/Y growth down to 1.6%, from 2.3% Y/Y last wee.
us of $75 billion in September, Treasury said in its monthly budget statement, the second monthly surplus of the fiscal year and the biggest surplus since April 2008. The government’s fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30.The full-year figure comes about a month before voters go to the polls and choose President Barack Obama or former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the White House. Deficit reduction has been a major component of the 2012 presidential race, with Romney frequently citing Obama-era shortfalls. Both men pledge to cut the deficit but differ dramatically on how: Obama wants Bush-era tax cuts on wealthy earners to expire; Romney would attack the deficit with spending cuts. |
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| MARKET PROFILE |
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WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 30 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
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RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
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CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
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OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
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SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
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SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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