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Week 39- 2012
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Week 39 -2012 | From Sep 24 to Sep 28, 2012
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Mkt
Time
Mon - Sep. 24
Tue - Sep. 25
Wed - Sep. 26
Thu - Sep. 27
Fri - Sep. 28
       
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Economic Data for Week 39-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 39-2012 LAST
Mon Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index The economy weakened considerably in August with the August 2012n (CFNAI) showing the 3 month moving (3MA) average declining significantly. The 3MA has remained for the last 6 months in negative territory. This indicatesnational economic activity was below its historical trend.
-0.87
Growth The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.87 in August, versus -0.12 in July. The three-month average fell to -0.47 in August, versus -0.26 in July.
Negative View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index Last week, the ICSC-Goldman was up 2.1% Y/Y and 0.6% W/W and the Redbook was up 2.0% Y/Y. Therefore, U.S. Store Sales Mostly Flat Across Seasonal Changes
0.6%
W/W
Chart View Sales and Inventories Goldman noted that although the Y/Y rate rose 0.8% this week, it has been trending lower. They added that gasoline prices are now moving lower, after nearly three months of uninterrupted gains, which could help discretionary spending as the holiday season begins.
Neutral View
Tue Johnson Redbook Though the rate of growth is very modest, Redbook describes business among retailers as satisfactory.
2.0%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Redbook added that Halloween sales are beginning earlier each year and may be keeping sales afloat. Redbook was up 2.0% Y/Y week 38.
Positive View
Tue S&P Case-Shiller Index The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.4% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, shy of economists forecasts for 0.9%; still considered modest gains In July.
0.4%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate U.S. single-family home prices rose for a sixth month in a row in July, though the improvement was not as strong as expected. The Case-Shiller HPI is now at 157.3 for the composite-10, up from 155.02 in June, and 144.61 for the�composite-20, up from 142.21. These are the highest readings since September of 2010.
Positive View
Tue Consumer Confidence The consumer confidence index increased to 70.3 in September. This is the highest level since February coming from a revised 61.3 in August. A prior estimate for August pegged the level at 60.6.
70.3
Level
Chart View Consumer Led by expectations, a gauge of consumer confidence jumped up in September to the highest level in seven months, but remained relatively low.
Positive View
Tue FHFA House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from June to July, the FHFA reported this morning. This brings the year over year gains to a fairly impressive 3.7%.
0.2%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate The FHFA house price index posted another advance, though a little monthly movement, gaining 0.2% in July after rising 0.6% in June.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 2.8% in the week ended Sept 21 or Week 38.
2.8%
Chart View Real Estate Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week as interest rates dropped to record lows in the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest stimulus efforts.
Positive View
Wed New Home Sales New Home Sales slipped 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted 373,000-unit annual rate for August 2012. July's sales pace was revised up to a 374,000-unit pace, the highest level since April 2010, from the previously reported 372,000 units.
373K
Chart View Real Estate New U.S. single-family home sales eased in August but held near two-year highs and prices vaulted to their highest level in more than five years. The sales pace in July, originally reported as 372,000, was the highest since April 2010. In short, New Homes Sales Dip, but Prices Hit 5-Year High.
Negative View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report U.S. stocks of crude fell by 2.45 million barrels to 365.18 million barrels, on large drop in imports: EIA reported. Analysts had forecast a stock increase of 900,000 barrels.
-2.4M
Barrels
View Chart Commodity U.S. crude oil and refined product stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week as crude imports plunged, government data showed on Wednesday.
Non Available
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, the lowest level since July. The prior week's figure was revised up to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported.
359K
View Chart Employment The number of Americans who applied last week for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since late July, but claims remained in a narrow range, suggesting little acceleration in a slowly healing labor market.
Positive View
Thu Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP expanded at a 1.3% annual rate in Q2-2012, the slowest pace since Q3-2012 and down from last month's 1.7% estimate, the Commerce Department said in its third and final estimate. Apparently consumers and businesses spent and invested less than initially believed.
1.3%
Growth Economic growth was much weaker than previously estimated in Q2-2012 as a drought cut into inventories, setting the platform for an even more sluggish performance in the current quarter against the backdrop of slowing factory activity.
Negative View
Thu Durable Goods Orders New durable goods orders in August fell by the most since the recession and a separate reading on the broader U.S. economy came in much weaker than expected.
-13.2%
Chart View Manufacturing Durable goods orders dived 13.2%, the largest drop since January 2009, when the economy was in the throes of a recession. Orders for July were revised down to show a 3.3% increase instead of the previously reported 4.1% gain.
Negative View
Thu Corporate Profits Corporate profits climbed $21.8 billion in the second quarter, compared to a prior estimate of a $10.4 million increase. By contrast, corporate profits declined by $53.0 billion in the first quarter. Corporate profits in Q2-2012 decreased to $1.665 trillion annualized, compared to $1.671 trillion in Q1-2012.
$1,665
Growth After-tax corporate profits unexpectedly rose at a 2.2% rate instead of the previously reported 1.1% increase. After-tax profits fell 8.6% in the first quarter.
Neutral View
Thu Pending Home Sales Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy existing homes in August. After gains in home sales over the spring and summer pending home sales dropped 2.6% from July. This drop forecasts that final closings on existing homes will be lower heading into fall.
99.2
Level
Chart View Real Estate Contract signings have been up Y/Y for sixteen consecutive months, which indicates overall home sales will be higher in 2012 than 2011. The Realtors predict a 9% gain to 4.64 million units.
Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report The EIA said natural-gas inventories rose 80 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 21 to 3.576 trillion cubic feet.
80 bcf
View Chart Commodity Natural gas futures surged 2.6% to 2012 highs Thursday as cooler weather forecasts signalled a coming increase in gas-fired heating needs.
Non Available
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank in the latest week with reduced holdings of agency and mortgage-backed securities despite the central bank's increased bond purchases,
$-17.2
Billions
View Chart Government The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.787 trillion on September 26, down from $2.804 trillion on September 19.
Non Available
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$13.8
Billions
View Chart Money Supply  
Non Available
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Mortgage finance backer Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 3.40% from 3.49% the previous week, matching the previous record low set in July.
3.40%
Chart View Interest Rates The fixed-rate 15-year mortgage also hit a record low of 2.73%, down from the previous record of 2.77% a week earlier.
Positive View
Fri Personal Income and Outlays Personal income inched up 0.1% last month on a seasonally adjusted basis. And July’s increase in wages was marked down to 0.1% from 0.3%. The big concern is that the rise in spending isn't being supported by faster wage growth.
0.1%
Chart View Consumer A sharp drop in savings over the past two months is a potentially negative sign for growth in the months ahead. Consumers cannot keep spending faster than their incomes grow, especially since their savings rate is already on the low side.
Negative View
Fri Consumer Spending Real PCE Consumers boosted spending in August by the biggest amount in six months, but their wages grew more slowly so they had to dip into their savings to pay for their purchases.
0.5%
M/M
Chart View Consumer Spending rose by 0.5% in August that is the fastest rate since February and marked the second straight sharp gain.
Positive View
Fri Core PCE Inflation remained relatively tame last month. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.1% in August, putting its increase over the past 12 months at 1.5%.
0.1%
Chart View Inflation Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.1% for the second straight month, in line with expectations. Over the past year, core PCE inflation has risen 1.6%.
Neutral View
Tue Chicago PMI  
3.40%
Chart View Manufacturing  
Positive View
Fri Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Rises, but Falls Short of Forecast 79. U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in four months in September as Americans saw better prospects for the job market and economy,
78.3
Chart View Consumer The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment rose to 78.3 from 74.3 in August, the highest level since May.
Positive View
       
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 39 2012 Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates      
N/A
 
02. Growth      
N/A
Second-quarter U.S. growth cut to 1.3%
03. Inflation      
N/A
 
04. Employment      
N/A
Jobless claims sank to a two-month low, in a hopeful sign for the labor market.
05. Real Estate      
N/A
New U.S. home sales dip in August; prices soar. Pending home sales retreat after hitting 2-yr high.
06. Manufacturing      
N/A
Durable Goods Orders Sink Even as Jobless Claims Fall
07. Consumer      
N/A
Consumer-confidence gauge rises to 7-month high
08. Sales & Inventories      
N/A
 
09. Business Activity      
N/A
 
10. Government      
N/A
 
11. Balance of Payments      
N/A
 
12. Money Supply      
N/A
 
13. Shipping      
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
U.S. oil stocks fall on large drop in imports: EIA
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 39-2012
0
0
0
N/A
 
       
         
Glossary: Current week Current Week Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View Non Available Non Available
         
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WEEK 39-2012 ENDING SEP. 28
Reports Commentary

Home prices kept rising in July across the United States, buoyed by greater sales and fewer foreclosures. Despite continuing economic uncertainty, consumers are slightly more optimistic than they have been in several months: Consumer-confidence gauge rises to 7-month high.

US Home Prices Rose for Sixth Month in a Row: Case-Shiller. Six years after its collapse, economists believe the housing market has turned a corner. The home price data confirmed "recent good news'' about the sector.

Home sales have been bolstered by the lowest mortgage rates on record. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage touched a record low of 3.49 percent last week and has been below 4 percent all year. A limited supply of homes has also helped drive prices higher.

Still, many Americans, particularly first-time homebuyers, are unable to qualify for a mortgage or can't afford larger down payments required by banks. That's holding back sales

Home sales could get a further boost from the Federal Reserve. The Fed said two weeks ago that it would purchase $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month until the economy and hiring improve substantially. That's likely to keep mortgage rates at record-low rates for some time.

The two leading store sales indexes, the ICSC-Goldman and Redbook, are now up 2.9% and 2.0% year over year, respectively.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates tumbled 9 basis points to average 3.63 percent, the lowest level in the history of the survey.The drop in rates followed the Fed's announcement it will purchase $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until there is improvement in the labor market.

Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell slightly in August to a 373,000 annual pace from July's slightly revised level of 374,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The inventory of new homes on the market held near record lows last month. At August's sales pace it would take 4.5 months to clear the houses on the market, unchanged from July.

Refineries cut back production of gasoline where inventories are down 0.5 million barrels which is the ninth straight weekly draw though the lowest of the streak. Distillate inventories are also down 0.5 million barrels for a second straight draw.

Brent crude oil fell more than 1% to below $109 a barrel on Wednesday as the euro zone crisis deepened with violent clashes and a general strike in Greece and more bad economic news for Spain.

The labor market has been mired in weakness as worries about higher taxes and deep government spending cuts in January, the ongoing debt problems in Europe and slowing global growth lead employers to be cautious about ramping up hiring.

Sluggish job gains and stubbornly high unemployment spurred the Federal Reserve this month into launching a third round of bond purchases to drive down already low interest rates.

The U.S. central bank vowed to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities each month until it sees a sustained upturn in the labor market.

The unemployment rate has been stuck above 8 percent for more than three years, the first time this has happened since the Great Depression, a hurdle for President Barack Obama's quest for a second term in office.

What’s more, another slowdown in the U.S. economy and dim prospects for a pickup in growth before the end of the year suggests hiring won’t accelerate much until 2013. The unemployment rate, now 8.1%, is not expected to fall much in the near future.

Pending home sales retreat after hitting 2-yr high. The performance in month-to-month contract signings has been uneven with ongoing shortages of lower priced inventory in much of the country, and across most price ranges in the West, but activity has remained at notably higher levels this year.

New home sales for August also disappointed, coming in lower than expected. New home sales are measured by signed contracts, rather than closings.

Many argued that stocks have rallied largely based on bond-buying expectations from the Federal Reserve, rather than healthy factors underpinning the global economy. The Fed’s unfurling of more quantitative easing was mostly a non-event that had already been factored into stock prices.

The Fed's holdings of debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank system totaled $83.41 billion, down from $87.10 billion the previous week.

The Fed announced Sept. 13 that it would be buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month for the foreseeable future. The idea of the purchases, popularly known as QE3, is to spur economic activity by pumping more cash into the economy and driving down rates. Those taking out new home loans, either to purchase or refinance, will be among the first beneficiaries of the Fed's policy.

For the most part, Americans have generally been reluctant shoppers in 2012, except when it comes to cars and trucks. Auto sales have surged to the highest level in three years, as many consumers replace aged vehicles they normally would have gotten rid of years ago had the economy been better.

Economists say consumer spending is unlikely to rise much faster unless businesses boost investment and hire at a faster pace, putting more money in people’s pockets.

The core index is closely watched by economists and the Federal Reserve to gauge inflationary trends and help determine whether to change interest rates. The central bank typically seeks to keep inflation at 2% or less. Consumers' inflation expectations for a year from now fell to 3.3% from 3.6%, while the five-to-10-year inflation outlook eased to 2.8% from 3%.

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 39-2012 ENDING SEP 28
     
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Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 39 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
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