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Week 07 - 2012
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Week 07 -2012 | From Feb 13 to Feb 17, 2012
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Feb. 13
Tue - Feb. 14
Wed - Feb. 15
Thu - Feb. 16
Fri - Feb. 17
       
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Economic Data for Week 07-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 07-2012 LAST
Mon No Economic Data on tap for today  
N/A
No Economic Reports  
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The ISCS reported that chain store sales fell a steep 2.0% from the prior week and increased 2.8% over the prior-year period during the week ending Feb 4th.
-2.0% W/W
Sales and Inventories Weather continued mild for the week as a whole, but those mild temperatures were too early and not consistent enough to spark any sustained interest in spring apparel.
Tue Retail Sales Retail sales in the U.S. rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in January, mainly because of brisk business at department stores, general stores and bars and restaurants
0.4% M/M
Sales and Inventories Sales for December were revised down from a 0.1% increase to "virtually unchanged. Headline retail sales grew less than expected but core numbers were strong in January.
Tue Import and Export Prices A monthly swing higher in petroleum prices fed a 0.3% rise in import prices for January. Higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the January increase.
Inflation Export prices rose 0.2% in January with a 1.1% monthly gain in agricultural prices offset by wide declines in other components. Import prices are unchanged and remain tame.
Positive View
Tue Johnson Redbook Store sales were soft in the February 11 week, up a same-store year-on-year 2.7% to extend a run of weak readings so far this year for Redbook.
2.70% Y/Y
Sales and Inventories Redbook's month-to-month forecast, up 1.5%, offers an early indication of strength for the government's ex-auto ex-gas category in February.
Tue Business Inventories A gain in U.S. business inventories trailed the improvement in sales in December, showing companies may continue to restock shelves and warehouses in early 2012.
0.4% M/M
Sales and Inventories The 0.4% increase in stockpiles followed a 0.3% advance the prior month. Inventories are in a pretty good spot right now, where they�re not too much but also not too little,
Wed MBA purchase Applications The number of purchase applications sank 8.4% in the February 10 week, pulling the 4-week average down 3.9% and pointing to the risk of weakness for home sales.
-1.0% W/W
Real Estate MBA's seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, dipped 1.0% in the week ended Feb 10.
Wed Empire State Mfg Index The general business conditions index rose six points to 19.5, its highest level in more than a year. The monthly gague of mgf in the state of NY, improved more than expected to 19.53 in February.
19.53 Level
Manufacturing The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded for a third consecutive month.
Wed Treasury Intal Capital Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $17.9 billion during the month compared with net purchases of $61.3 billion the previous month
$17.9B
Chart View Balance of Payments International demand for U.S. financial assets cooled in December amid optimism Europe would resolve its debt crisis.
Wed Industrial Production U.S. industrial production was unexpectedly flat in January. Some Economists expected industrial production to increase 0.7%.
0.0% M/M
Manufacturing Meanwhile, the Fed revised December's industrial production to show a 1% gain instead of the previously reported 0.4% increase.
Wed Housing Market Index The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September.
29
Level
Real Estate Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fifth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years.
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Oil advanced to the highest level in three weeks in New York as German investor confidence surged and sales at U.S. retailers climbed in January.
-0.2 Barrels
Commodity Oil dropped as much as 0.5% speculation that U.S. supplies climbed to the highest level in more than 4 months. Inventories grew by 1.6 million barrels, or 0.5% , to 340.8 million in wk ended Feb. 10.
Wed FOMC Minutes Meeting #1 Minutes of the Feds Jan. 24-25 meeting show that some Fed officials thought such bond purchases should begin soon because unemployment remains high and inflation low.
N/A
Interest Rates The debate took place at a meeting in which the Fed decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at record lows until at least late 2014.
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said, the lowest since March 2008.
348,000 claims
Employment New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a near four-year low,. The prior week's figure was revised up to 361,000 from the previously reported 358,000.
Thu Housing Starts Construction of single-family homes cooled off slightly in January after surging in the final month last year. Housing starts rebounded 1.5% in January after a 1.9 dip the month.
1.5%
Real Estate Builders broke ground on a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 699,000 homes in January. That's up 1.5% from December and the highest level since October 2008.
Thu Building Permits Housing permits also are oscillating slowly upward with a 0.7% rise, following a 1.3% dip in December revised. The latest number of 676K units was a little under the consensus projection of 684K.
676K
Real Estate While the latest numbers are positive, it should be remembered that seasonal factors are strong this time of year and it is difficult to know the true trend a given month.
Thu Producer Price Index The PPI rebounded 0.1% in January, following a 0.1% dip the prior month. Prices for finished goods declined 0.1% in December and moved up 0.2% in November.
0.1% M/M
Inflation The Producer Price Index for finished goods advanced 0.1% in January, seasonally
adjusted
Flat View
Thu Philadelphia Fed Survey Philadelphia-area manufacturers say business seems to be improving as a broad measure of their activity expanded this month to its highest level since October.
10.2% Level
Business Activity The survey's general activity index tracking about 100 Philadelphia-area manufacturers rose to 10.2 in February from 7.3 in January.
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Weekly inventory showed a lower-than-expected drop in natural gas supplies, as warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country have restricted the commodity�s requirement for power burn.
-127 bcf
Commodity Gas stocks � currently 33% above benchmark levels � are at their highest point for this time of the year, reflecting low demand amid robust onshore output.
Thu U.S. Fed Balance Sheet Operation Twist continues and the US Fed is shifting average maturities further out, notably for mortgage-backed securities that led the increase by an $11.8 billion jump.

$9.7B

Government For the February 15 week, the Fed's balance expanded $9.7 billion after rising $3.3 billion the prior period. However, other assets category declined falling $7.7 billion.
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $-7.4B.
$-7.4B W/W
Money Supply The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew to a record size in the latest week and stood at $2.92 trillion on Feb. 15, up from $2.911 trillion on Feb 8
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year home loan was unchanged at 3.87%. That's the lowest level since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.
3.87%
APR
Chart View Interest Rates The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage was also unchanged at 3.16%. That's up from a record low of 3.14% reached two weeks ago.v
Fri Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis.
0.2% M/M
Inflation The indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all rose in January, each increasing 0.2%.
Fri Leading Indicators The economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer. LEI index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January.
0.4% M/M
Business Actvity This fourth consecutive gain in the LEI reflected fairly widespread strength among its components, pointing to somewhat more positive economic conditions in early 2012.
       
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 07 2012 RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates
1
1
Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0.0 to 0.25 %
02. Growth
N/A
 
03. Inflation
3
 
04. Employment
1
Initial claims have been consistently falling since September
05. Real Estate
2
1
 
06. Manufacturing
1
 
07. Consumer
N/A
 
08. Sales & Inventories
3
1
 
09. Business Activity
2
1
 
10. Government
1
1
 
11. Balance of Payments
N/A
 
12. Money Supply
1
 
13. Shipping
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 07-2012
11
3
6
 
       
         
Glossary: Current week Current Week Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Flat View Flat View N/A Non Available
         
         
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WEEK 07-2012 ENDING FEB. 17
Reports Commentary

U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in January as petroleum and food rebounded strongly, while export prices rose 0.2%. The rise in import prices last month could also reflect a weak dollar. The dollar fell 0.6% on a trade-weighted basis.

Inventory replenishment, which helped the economy grow last quarter at the fastest pace in more than a year, may extend into this year as a pickup in hiring boosts purchases.

Demand at retailers climbed 0.4% in January, retail sales rose less than forecast in January, held back by an unexpected drop in demand at auto dealers.

But with growth still slow and unemployment high, producers have little power to pass on the increased costs to consumers.

Business inventories rose 0.4% in December, below the 0.7% rise for sales and pulling down the stock-to-sales ratio by 1 tenth to 1.26.

Applications for home mortgages slipped last week, pulled lower by a steep drop in demand for home purchases.


The December decline in foreign demand for U.S. assets reflects �in large part the improvement in the global economic outlook and risk sentiments during that period,�

Notwithstanding this, with concerns about a disorderly Greek default continuing to linger. We expect the flight to quality to continue to play a big role in maintaining a healthy appetite for U.S. Treasuries among global investors.�

U.S. Treasuries finished 2011 with the biggest annual return since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 as Europe�s debt turmoil spurred investor demand for refuge even as Standard & Poor�s cut America�s credit rating. U.S. 10-year note yields ended 2011 within a quarter-percentage point of a record low while data showed the U.S. economy was strengthening.

European leaders are torn between pouring more aid into Greece�s struggling economy or risking an unprecedented national bankruptcy that might force the country out of the euro. U.S. industrial output was unexpectedly flat in January as steep declines in mining and utilities offset gains in manufacturing.Capacity utilization, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, fell to 78.5% from 78.6% the prior month. That was 1.8 percentage points below the 1972-to-2011 average.

Officials at the Fed tend to look at utilization measures as a signal of how much "slack" remains in the economy � how far growth has room to run before it becomes inflationary. Though that's still far below the level considered "good" - the seasonally adjusted gauge needs a reading of 50 to do that, which hasn't been the case since April 2006 - it does indicate improving sentiment for builders.

The home-builder gauge tracks closely with single-family housing starts, with the January data from that series due for release from the Commerce Department on Thursday.U.S. homebuilders are gradually growing more optimistic about the depressed housing market and believe homes sales could pick up sharply at the beginning of 2012.The economic sentiment is turning more bullish in Europe and that's supportive for the oil market.

There's greater optimism that the worst of the Greek situation is over and signs that the economy is getting better. Getting above $100 is important and adding to the bullish momentum in the market.

The Federal Reserve appears open to the idea of a third round of bond purchases to boost a still-modest U.S. recovery. But members remain divided over when or whether to take that step. Job gains have exceeded 200,000 for two straight months and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low of 8.3% in January.But considerable slack still remains, with 23.8 million Americans either out of work or underemployed.

There are no job openings for nearly three out of every four unemployed.A measure of builder sentiment has risen for five straight months and is now at its highest level in nearly five years. Many builders are seeing more people express interest in buying a home, leading them to believe 2012 could be a turn-around year for the market. Mortgage rates have never been cheaper. And home sales started to rise at the end of last year.

The economy is expected to continue strengthening, possibly picking up this spring and summer, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.4% in January, led by the interest-rate spread and manufacturing hours.

 

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE FOR WEEK 07-2012 ENDING FEB. 17
     
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 07 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE FEB 10
OPEN FEB 12
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
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