 |
 |
|
|
|
Week 50 -2012 | From Dec 10 to Dec 14, 2012 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Economic Data for Week 50-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 50-2012 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
|
 |
No Reports |
|
|
|
Thu |
FOMC Meeting Begins |
The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. |
|
|
|
Interest Rates |
The Fed's latest round of quantitative easing will total $1.1 trillion, with about $620 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $500 billion in Treasuries, according to the median estimate in the survey. |
|
|
Tue |
ICSC Goldman Index |
Chain store sales continue to slow as consumers await the last-minute promotions of the final holiday rush, according to ICSC-Goldman whose same-store sales index fell 0.7% in the December 8 week. |
-0.7%
W/W
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The year-on-year rate of plus 2.5% is down from plus 3.2% in the prior week and the 4.0% surge in the promotion week of Black Friday. Weakness between the two promotion periods is the traditional pattern. |
|
|
Thu |
U.S. Trade Balance |
Imports of foreign goods into the U.S. declined by 2.1% to $222.8 billion in October, but exports fell by 3.6% to $180.5 billion to account for the wider trade gap, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. |
|
|
|
Balance of Payments |
The U.S. trade deficit increased 4.9% in October to $42.2 billion, as imports of crude oil rose and American exports of manufactured goods fell to the lowest level in nearly a year. |
|
|
Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Chain-store sales growth is soft for a second straight week, at plus 2.2% for Redbook's same-store sales tally for the December 8 week vs plus 2.1% in the prior week and the 4.5% surge of the Black Friday week. |
2.2%
Y/Y
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The report, whose results are very similar to ICSC-Goldman, notes the beginning of Hanukah helped the week's results. Otherwise, the report notes that sales have entered the "soft middle" of the holiday season. |
|
|
Tue |
Wholesale Trade |
U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in October as sales fell for the first time in three months, according to a government report on Tuesday that hinted at some piling up of goods in warehouses. |
N/A |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories increased 0.6% to a record $497.1 billion after an unrevised 1.1% rise in September. |
|
|
Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The Refinance Index increased 8% from the previous week and is at its highest level since the week ending October 12, 2012. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier. |
6.0%
W/W
|
|
|
Real Estate |
Continued uncertainty due to the lack of resolution regarding the fiscal cliff led interest rates lower last week, with mortgage rates reaching a new low in our survey |
|
|
Wed |
Import and Export Prices |
U.S. import prices recorded the biggest drop in five months in November as food and fuel costs tumbled, keeping inflation pressures subdued against the backdrop of a weak economy. |
-1.6% |
|
|
Inflation |
Import Prices Plunge on Drop in Petroleum Costs. The global economy is restraining prices here and abroad. This indicates global demand is soft and will remain soft in the near term |
|
|
Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
The�EIA report for week ended December 14, showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week, At 371.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. |
|
|
|
Commodity |
Crude oil gained more profits during the U.S. session on Wednesday after the Energy Information Agency released crude oil inventories which showed a decline in inventories |
|
|
Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed out at an afternoon news conference that even after the employment and inflation targets are triggered, that won't lead to an automatic raising of rates. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. |
|
|
Wed |
FOMC Forecast |
The Fed also released its economic projections for 2013 and beyond, and they were largely unchanged from the targets released in September. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Unemployment in 2013 is expected to be in the range of 6.9% to 7.8%, while economic growth will be modest, with GDP rising 2.0% to 3.2%. Both were lower than September estimates, indicating the economy is likely to have little to show for all of the easing outside of not getting any worse. |
|
|
Wed |
Treasury Budget |
�The U.S. government ran a $231.7 billion budget deficit in February, the Treasury Department reported Monday. |
N/A |
|
|
Government |
This is up substantially from the deficit of $222.5 billion in the same month one year ago. Receipts were $103.4 billion in February, the Treasury said, about $7 billion lower than receipts in February 2011. Outlays were $335.1 billion. This is $2 billion higher compared with a year earlier.� |
|
|
Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
U.S. jobless claims drop 29,000 to 343,000. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 372,000 from an original reading of 370,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.� |
343K |
|
|
Employment |
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000 in the week ended Dec. 8, putting claims at the second lowest level of the year, the Labor Department said Thursday. |
|
|
Thu |
Producer Price Index |
U.S. producer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in November, mostly because of lower energy costs. Energy prices sank 4.6%, the biggest one-month decline since March 2009, while the wholesale cost of food rose 1.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
Inflation |
Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, so-called core producer prices edged up 0.1% last month. |
|
|
Thu |
Retail Sales |
Retail sales rose 0.3%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in October. November U.S. retail sales rise 0.3%; broad gains |
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
A separate measure of retail sales, which strips out automobiles, gasoline and building materials, rose a more healthy 0.5%. This core reading more closely follows the government's gauge of consumer spending, which is a major component of economic growth. |
|
|
Thu |
Business Inventories |
Business Inventories Rise 0.4%, in Line With Expectations. U.S. businesses added to their stockpiles in October while sales fell, a sign that companies may order fewer goods in the coming months. |
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said inventories rose 0.4%, down from a 0.7% increase in September and the smallest gain in four months. Sales, meanwhile, dropped 0.4%. |
|
|
Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas in storage rose two billion cubic feet in the December 7 week to 3,806 bcf. A small withdrawal was expected. In the East Region, stocks were 80 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 49 Bcf. |
2 bcf |
|
|
Commodity |
Working gas in storage was 3,724 Bcf as of Friday, December 14, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 82 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 66 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 345 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,379 Bcf. |
|
|
Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
US Fed balance sheet liabilities rise to USD 2.899trl as of Dec 12 vs. USD 2.842trl the previous week. Fed holdings of US Treasuries total USD 1.661trl as of Dec 12 vs. USD 1.654trl the prev. week. |
-8.4B |
|
|
Government |
Fed holdings of agency debt rose USD 618mln to USD 318.29 as of Dec 12. Fed holdings of MBS total USD 928.80bln as of Dec 12 vs. USD 883.65bln the prev. week |
|
|
Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
|
$-1.9B |
|
|
Money Supply |
|
|
|
Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The national average of the benchmark 30-year fixed rate rose 0.02% to 3.34% during the December 14 week according to Freddie Mac�s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. |
3.91% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The average 15- year rate slipped to 2.65% from 2.66%. Interest rates close to record lows are attracting buyers, while a shrinking supply of properties for sale bolsters prices |
|
|
Fri |
Consumer Price Index |
The Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer Price Index dropped 0.3% last month as a sharp decline in gasoline prices offset increases in other areas. It was also the largest drop since May and followed a 0.1% gain in Octobe |
-0.3%
M/M
|
|
|
Inflation |
The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, edged up 0.1% after rising 0.2% in October. Although food prices rose 0.2% in a lagged response to the summer drought, price pressures remain benign |
|
|
Fri |
Industrial Production |
Industrial production jumped in November by the most in two years as U.S. manufacturers began to rebound from the damage inflicted by superstorm Sandy. |
|
|
|
Manufacturing |
Industrial Production in U.S. Jumps on Rebound From Sandy. The Federal Reserve said Friday that factory output increased 1.1% in November from October. That offset a 1% decline in the previous, which had been blamed on Superstorm Sandy. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| WEEK 50-2012 ENDING DEC. 14 |
Reports Commentary
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce on Wednesday that it will continue buying Treasury securities to stimulate growth in the new year.
The relative complacency of Fed officials also reflects their judgment that the mortgage-bond purchases announced in September are working. Average interest rates on 30-year mortgages are at the lowest levels on record, averaging 3.35% in November, according to Freddie Mac's regular survey.
U.S. trade deficit rises 4.9% to $42.2 billion. Oil imports rise in October, manufacturing exports decline. U.S. manufacturers are not selling as many goods overseas because of tougher economic conditions in key markets such as Europe. American companies exported fewer industrial supplies, capital goods and food in October. Falling imports, meanwhile, reflect a softer U.S. economy.
The U.S. trade deficit widened in October as exports suffered the biggest drop in nearly four years, indicating slowing global demand is likely to weigh on U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap increased 4.9% to $42.2 billion even as imports declined to the lowest level in 1-1/2 years. September's trade gap was revised to $40.3 billion from the previously reported $41.6 billion.
Weak exports could pressure the manufacturing sector. Factory activity has also cooled in recent months because of fears deep government spending cuts and higher taxes, which are set to kick in next month, could push the economy into recession.
By adding Treasury purchases, policy makers "would continue to lower mortgage rates and create conditions that would be favorable for a continued recovery in the housing market. The FOMC will probably wait until its March 19-20 meeting before adopting thresholds on unemployment and inflation to indicate when it will consider raising the federal funds rate, according to the median estimate of surveyed economists.
Business won’t hire until new workers add more to the bottom line than they cost. In other words, business wants to see strong markets, and you can’t get strong markets by taking buying power out of the economy.
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes and accounted for more than a quarter of the economy's annual 2.7% growth pace in the third quarter.
That led many economists to anticipate a draw down on inventories this quarter and weigh on growth. Data scheduled on Thursday on overall business inventories for October and November retail sales could shed more light on fourth-quarter GDP estimates.
So far, GDP growth estimates for the quarter range from 0.5% to 2.3%.
�The Federal Reserve doesn't expect to hit its just-established unemployment threshold for hiking interest rates until 2015, according to a summary of the central bank's latest projections. The Fed sees the jobless rate falling to a range between 6% and 6.6% by 2015, compared to 7.7% in November. The Fed earlier Wednesday said it would keep interest rates at ultra-low levels so long as the jobless rate was above 6.5%, unless inflation got in the way. Crucially, the Fed doesn't see inflation hitting its forward-looking upper 2.5% threshold at all, with the highest rate between 1.7% to 2% not until 2015.�
U.S. retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week, hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply in the fourth quarter.
Rising inventories and falling sales suggest that companies may have ordered more goods than they need. As a result, they are likely to cut back on orders in the coming months, which would slow factory output and economic growth.
A ratio of inventories to sales rose to its highest level in three years in October. That also indicates that companies may have restocked too much. A big increase in stockpiles accelerated economic growth in the July-September quarter.
The Fed said on Wednesday it expected to hold interest rates near zero until unemployment falls to at least 6.5% and as long as inflation does not threaten to break above 2.5% and inflation expectations are contained |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MARKET PROFILE |
 |
WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 31 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
|
RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
 |
CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
|
|
|
OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
|
 |
SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
|
SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
IMPORTANT NOTE: In an effort to comply with all applicable rules, regulations and disclosures please be so kind and read the "General Disclosure" below: |
| |
|
|
|
|
| GENERAL DISCLOSURE - TRADINGVESTING.COM |
- The material contained on our Website and Economic Calendar must be used at your own risk. Material is believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or validity, nor is Tradingvesting.com responsible for any errors or omissions which may occur. The analysis and/or recommendations made by Tradingvesting.com do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. All contents and recommendations are based on data and sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that future results will be profitable or will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied.Tradingvesting.com website and material contained therein is not a solicitation to participate in the Futures/Stocks/Options Market. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming Initial Public Offerings with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Tradingvesting.com has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Unless indicated otherwise: economic data is from the U.S and intraday data is at least 20 minutes delayed; all prices are in the local currency; Time is U.S. Eastern Time. Furthermore, there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading.Tradingvesting.com assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results, please red our Risk Disclosure.
- Tradingvesting.com does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. All information on this website are for educational purposes only and are not intended to provide financial advice. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, do not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold Tradingvesting.com and any authorized distributors of this information harmless in any and all ways. We respect your right to privacy, please click here to view our privacy policy.
- U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- CFTC rule 4.41:Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
- Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Our linking to these sites does not constitute an endorsement of any products, services or the information found on them. Once you link to another site you are subject to the policies of the new site. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Risk Disclosure. Copyright � 2012 Tradingvesting, LLC. All rights reserved. If you have any questions regarding the Online Economic Calendar application, please contact us: click here.
THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT, OF COURSE, DISCLOSE ALL THE RISKS AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS AND EQUITY MARKETS. PLEASE READ MORE AT: TERMS OF SERVICE.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
