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Week 25 -2012 | From June 18 to June 22, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 25-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 25-2012 |
Last |
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Mon |
Housing Market Index |
Current sales of new homes are at their highest level of the recovery, according to the single-family sales component from the June home builders' report. |
29 |
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Real Estate |
Recovery highs sweep the home builders' report where the composite index is up 1 point to 29 vs a revised 28 in May. |
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Tue |
FOMC Meeting #4 Day 1 of 2 |
The FOMC announcement at 12:30 p.m. ET for the June 19-20 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave policy rates unchanged. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
The forecasts are expected at about 2:00 p.m. ET. Markets have expectations of some type additional easing such as an extension of Operation Twist. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
Growth in chain-store sales remains soft, the ICSC index is unchanged in the June 16 week. The year-on-year rate of plus 3.6% is the highest since mid-May. |
0.0% W/W |
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Sales and Inventories |
The report blames economic uncertainty both here and also globally for the softness. But it also notes that moderating gas prices should, in the coming weeks, begin to boost discretionary spending. |
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Tue |
Housing Starts |
Housing starts declined in May by 4.8% after rebounding 5.4% in April. The May pace of 0.708 million units fell short of market expectations for 0.720 million and is up 28.5% on a year-ago basis. |
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Real Estate |
Despite the dip in the May, housing strats appears to be heading upward but hardly at a robust pace. In short, there were upward revisions and permits were up in May. And starts weakness was in the volatile multifamily component.� |
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Tue |
Building Permits |
Building Permits rebounded 7.9%, following a decline of 6.0% in April revised from -7.0%. The May rate of 780K units posted higher than analysts' estimate of 736K units. |
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Real Estate |
Housing permits showed notable improvement in May, suggesting growth in construction in coming months. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Sales at chain stores improved in the June 16 week but not as much as expected by Redbook whose same-store index shows a plus 2.4% rate, very soft but up 4 tenths from the prior week. |
2.4% Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
The report notes activity tied in the week to Father's Day and that warmer weather across much of the country helped move seasonal goods. |
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Tue |
Import and Export Prices |
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N/A |
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Inflation |
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Tue |
Treasury Budget |
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N/A |
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Government |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
This week: a 9.0% plunge in purchase applications for home mortgages a recalibration following the Memorial Day holiday and it notes that activity remains within a narrow 3-year band. |
-0.8% W/W |
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Real Estate |
Refinancing activity rose 1.0% in the June 15 week with the report noting that composition moved to FHA loans as related premiums on streamlined loans came fully into effect allowing borrowers to lower their rates without increasing their FHA premiums. |
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Wed |
Producer Price Index |
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N/A |
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Inflation |
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Wed |
Business Inventories |
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N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
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Wed |
Retail Sales |
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N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
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N/A |
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Commodity |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting #4 Day 2 of 2 |
The Fed left policy rates unchanged today and only made a modest move on extending Operation Twist. The Fed kept the fed funds target at a range of zero to 0.25%. |
0.25% |
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terest Rates |
The meeting statement downgraded the status of the economy-notably for the labor market and consumer sector.� The Fed acknowledged that the economy has slowed. |
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Thu |
HSBC China Flash PMI |
China flash manufacturing PMI reading was 48.1, a seven month low and down from the May final reading of 48.4. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The important manufacturing output index declined to a three month low of 49.1 from 49.7 in May. The flash reading contains only directional indications. For example, output, new orders and new export orders are contracting at a faster pace while employment, at a slower rate. Both output prices and input prices were declining at a faster rate. The poor reading is another indication of a slowing economy which could mean trouble for countries that export raw materials to China.� |
48.1 |
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China |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial claims in the June 16 week came in at 387,000 which is 4,000 higher than the Econoday consensus. The prior week is revised 3,000 higher to 389,000. |
387,000 |
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Employment |
Convincingly underscoring the lack of improvement is the 4-week average which shows a fourth straight increase with a 3,500 gain to 386,250 (prior revised to 382,750). |
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Thu |
Consumer Price Index |
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N/A |
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Consumer |
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Thu |
Current Account |
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N/A |
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Balance of Payments |
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Thu |
Existing Home Sales |
Existing home sales fell 1.5% in May to a 4.55 million annual rate. The rate opened the year at 4.63 million in January but hasn't gone anywhere. |
N/A |
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Real Estate |
This year's uptrend in the housing sector appears to be slowing. Details show monthly contraction in three of four regions including the South which is by far the largest region. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The Philadelphia Fed Index shows contraction for a second month and, at a minus 16.6 level, much more severe contraction than May's minus 5.8, a reading that in itself was a shock. |
-16.6 |
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Business Activity |
The alarm you hear is the Philly Fed's monthly report where contraction is gripping the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector this month. |
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Thu |
Leading Indicators |
The LEI index posted a better-than-expected 0.3% gain for May after an unrevised 0.1% dip in April and marginally revised 0.2% gain in March (previously up 0.3%). Strength in the latest month was in building permits, the fed funds spread, and in the ISM new orders index. |
0.3% |
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Business Activity |
Today's economic numbers are mixed but forward momentum is still positive according to the index of leading indicators. |
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Thu |
FHFA House Price Index |
House prices rose 0.8% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency�s monthly house price index. |
0.8% M/M |
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Real Estate |
The agency downwardly revised its 1.8% increase in March to a 1.6% increase. For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices rose 3%. The index is 17.6% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the April 2004 index level. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
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N/A |
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Commodity |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
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N/A |
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Government |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
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N/A |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage reached a new low this week, falling to an average of 3.66%, according to a weekly survey of rates from Freddie Mac. |
3.66%
APR
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Interest Rates |
That was 0.01 percentage point below the previous record set two weeks ago. The rate for a 15-year, fixed dropped to 2.95%, a tick above the record low. |
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Fri |
Empire Estate Mfg Index |
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N/A |
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Manufacturing |
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Fri |
Treasury Intal Capital |
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N/A |
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Government |
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Fri |
Industrial Production |
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N/A |
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Business Actvity |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
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N/A |
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Consumer |
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| WEEK 25-2012 JUN. 22 |
Reports Commentary
Factory orders fell in January in the typical pattern of declines in the first month of the quarter. Nevertheless, new orders have been on a rising trend since March 2009 although they remain below their pre-recession peak..
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| MARKET PROFILE |
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WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 25 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
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RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
 |
CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
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OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
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SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
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SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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