The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The January National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve provides another sign of improving economic momentum. The index slipped to 0.22 from 0.54 in December, which was revised up from 0.17. However, the three-month moving average rose to 0.14 which was its highest since last March. The figures had been negative since then.

During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.Lower interest rates have attracted many homeowners to refinancing deals, though still-oversupplied housing markets, tougher lending requirements and stubborn unemployment in some areas have damped demand for new purchases. With weekly claims approaching levels last seen before the recession that began in December 2007, economists say employers might be close to ending a long cycle of heavy layoffs, laying the ground for more hiring. The U.S.

Federal Reserve has left benchmark interest rates near zero since December 2008 to coax companies into hiring, and the recent improvement in the labor market has dampened expectations of further monetary stimulus. Foreclosures are boosting the supply of properties on the market and dragging down values for all houses.

Banks may seize more than 1 million U.S. homes this year after legal scrutiny of their foreclosure practices slowed actions against delinquent property owners in 2011.The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped after standing pat for three straight weeks at record lows. But the rate stayed below 4% for the 12th straight week, keeping home-buying and refinancing attractive for those who can qualify. So far, low rates have done little to help the housing market, which is slowly improving.

Few people can qualify for the rates and many who can have already done so. But the housing market is flashing signs of health ahead of the spring-buying season. Sales of previously occupied homes are at their highest level since May 2010. More first-time buyers are making purchases. And the supply of homes fell last month to its lowest point in nearly seven years, which could push home prices higher. Despite the weak sales last month, details of the report offered further fresh signs of green shoots in the housing market, with the months' supply of homes on the market falling to 5.6 months � the lowest since January 2006.

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