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Week 32- 2012
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Week 32 -2012 | From Aug 06 to Aug 10, 2012
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Mkt
Time
Mon - Aug. 06
Tue - Aug. 07
Wed - Aug. 08
Thu - Aug. 09
Fri - Aug. 10
     
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Economic Data for Week 32-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 32-2012 LAST
Mon Non Reports for Our Global Vision There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday.  
No Reports    
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The ICSC Index was flat in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, despite 12 states holding state sales tax holidays.

0.0%
W/W

Chart View Sales and Inventories Consumers were not in much of a shopping mood during the first week of the August fiscal month. ICSC report notes that tax holidays in 12 states failed to spark much interest in back-to-school shopping.
Neutral View
Tue Johnson Redbook The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 2% from last year compared with a 1.7% targeted gain.
Chart View Sales and Inventories Redbook said sales were helped by state tax holidays and associated extended store hours in many states and shoppers focused on summer clearance sales and began to look at freshly shelved back to school merchandise.
Positive View
Tue Consumer Credit Consumer credit posted its weakest growth in eight months in June as Americans reduced credit card debt, a potentially negative sign for an economy that has struggled to create jobs.
$6.5B M/M
Chart View Consumer Consumer credit grew by $6.46 billion in June, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. That was well below the $11 billion advance Wall Street economists had forecast.
Negative View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Mortgage applications decreased 1.8% from one week earlier, according to data from the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 3, 2012.
-1.8% W/W
Chart View Real Estate The refinance share of mortgage activity was unchanged from last week at 81% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.0% from the previous week.
Negative View
Wed Fixed Mortgage Rates Rates have remained in a narrow range between 3.34% and 3.5% for eight straight weeks. Looking to next week, we expect rates will remain in this holding pattern until markets receive more clarity about the future of the euro-zone economy.
3.44% W/W
Chart View Interest Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on its Mortgage Marketplace moved up to 3.44% from 3.34% a week earlier, which was the lowest level since the Mortgage Marketplace launched in April 2008.
Positive View
Wed Productivity and Costs U.S. productivity rebounded in Q2-2012, posting a solid gain as companies generated more goods and services even though there was little change in the number of hours their employees worked.
3.44% Q/Q
Chart View Business Actvity The Labor Department said Wednesday that productivity rose 1.6% in the April-to-June period, a sharp contrast to the first quarter�s revised decline of 0.5%. Economists expected productivity to climb by 1.3%.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Crude-oil futures reached their highest in more than two months, extending an advance into a fourth session as a weekly government report showed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. supplies.
-3.7M Barrels
View Chart Commodity The Energy Information Administration reported a decline of 3.7 million barrels for crude in the week ended Aug. 3. That compared with expectations of a decline around 300,000 barrels.
Positive View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Jobless claims fell 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended Aug. 4, according to the Labor Department. Economists had projected claims would rise to 370,000.
361K
View Chart Employment We do not expect that claims will move materially lower from here without a significant boost to business and consumer confidence
Positive View
Thu U.S. Trade Balance The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.7% to $42.9 billion. This is the smallest trade gap since December 2010. The trade deficit in the U.S. shrank to $42.9 billion in June as imports dropped and exports climbed. Exports positive but imports negative.
-42.9B
Balance of Payments The nation�s trade deficit fell to $42.9 billion, down 10.7% from $48.0 billion in May. The one-month improvement in the deficit is the biggest since February and was much larger than expected.
Positive View
Thu Fixed Mortgage Rates  
3.59%
View Chart Interest Rates  
Positive View
Thu Wholesale Trade Wholesale Inventories contract -0.2% in June, instead of improving. Inventories at U.S. wholesalers unexpectedly dropped in June as distributors suffered the biggest decrease in sales in three years.
-0.2%
Sales and Inventories The 0.2% decline in stockpiles, the biggest since September, followed no change in May. Sales plunged 1.4 %, the most since March 2009.
Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural gas in storage rose 24 bcf in the August 3 week to 3,241 bcf. An injection of 30 bcf was expected.
24 bcf
View Chart Commodity The US Energy Information Administration slightly trimmed its estimate for domestic natural gas production growth in 2012, but still expects output this year to be up 3.8% from 2011's record levels.
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew for a second straight week on its purchases of more federal government debt.
$54.1B
View Chart Government The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $2.839 trillion on August 8, up from $2.834 trillion on August 1.
Negative View
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$5.7B
View Chart Money Supply  
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average rose to 3.59% in the week ending Aug. 9 from 3.55% in the prior week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 2.84% from 2.83%
3.59%
APR
Chart View Interest Rates The rate was 4.32% a year earlier, according to Freddie, a buyer of residential mortgages. Fixed mortgage rates inched up again this week following stronger-than-expected employment reports.
Positive View
Fri Import and Export Prices Import prices fell 0.6% in July for the fourth straight decline and the third straight sharp decline.�Oil Prices is a big factor to this decrease.
-3.2%
Y/Y
Chart View Inflation Exports increased 0.9% to a record $185 billion in June. There were big gains in exports of autos and consumer goods, eclipsing a drop in exports of civilian aircraft, typically a key source of strength in the data.
Positive View
Fri Treasury Budget The deficit for the first 10 months of the 2012 budget year, which ends Sept. 30, totaled $974 billion. That�s 11.5% less than the $1.1 trillion gap in the same period last year. Lowest July deficit since 2007.
$-69.6B
Government A slightly better economy has boosted income tax receipts, which have increased 6% so far this year. Corporate income tax receipts rose nearly 30% compared to a year ago. Spending has dipped 0.3%.
Positive View
     
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52-Week Rating 2012
WEEK 32 2012 Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
01. Interest Rates      
N/A
 
02. Growth      
N/A
 
03. Inflation      
N/A
 
04. Employment      
N/A
Yet the current weakness in the U.S. economy provides little evidence that hiring is about to accelerate sharply.
05. Real Estate      
N/A
 
06. Manufacturing      
N/A
 
07. Consumer      
N/A
 
08. Sales & Inventories      
N/A
Businesses may be cutting inventories in line with slowing demand as wholesalers had enough goods on hand to last 1.2 months at the current sales pace, the most since December 2009. Weak consumer spending and fiscal worries in the U.S. may be making businesses cautious about growing stockpiles
09. Business Activity      
N/A
 
10. Government      
N/A
 
11. Balance of Payments      
N/A
 
12. Money Supply      
N/A
 
13. Shipping      
N/A
 
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Positive View
 
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Negative View
 
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
 
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
 
TOTAL WEEK 32-2012
0
0
0
N/A
 
   
         
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LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 32-2012 ENDING AUG. 10
Reports Commentary

The job market remains difficult as employers have pulled back from adding workers due to the European debt crisis and a stalemate in the U.S. over tax and spending policies. The unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3% in July. On an underlying basis, growth in both imports and exports has cooled significantly, which is hardly surprising given the state of the global economy.

Nevertheless, the data should be a boost for estimates of second-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product. The government only included a small narrowing of the trade gap in this estimate; the next estimate of GDP is due Aug. 29.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports fell 1.5% to $227.9 billion in June. All major categories declined except for automobiles; the biggest came in imports of industrial supplies and capital goods. Falling imports should be regarded as a worrisome signal about U.S. domestic demand.

The lion�s share of the improvement was due to a sharp decline in the cost of imported oil.

The petroleum deficit narrowed 9.1% in June to $22.5 billion, the lowest level since November 2010.

The value of U.S. crude-oil imports fell to $26.4 billion in June from $29.3 billion in May, as the price of a barrel of oil dropped to $100 from $108. The quantity of crude imports fell to 8.78 million barrels.

Despite the improvement in the overall trade gap, the U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $27.4 billion in June, up from $26.6 billion in the same month last year and $26.0 billion in May 2012.

As for the troubled euro area, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $7 billion from $8.7 billion in the same month last year. Year-to-date exports to the region were $100 billion, up only 2.8% from the same period last year.

The government said that wholesales prices firmed a bit in June on stronger food and auto prices

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 32-2012 ENDING AUG 10
     
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