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Week 01 -2012 | From Jan 02 to Jan 06, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 01-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 01-2012 |
Last |
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Mon |
New Year 2012 |
All major American stock exchanges, NYSE, NASDAQ and American Stock Exchange, follow these same holiday schedules |
N/A |
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Market Holidays |
New Year's Day: All Markets Closed |
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Tue |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
The ISM Mfg Index of national factory activity rose to 53.9% Dec. 2011 from 52.7% Nov. 2011 which is a six-month high. The reading topped expectations of 53.2% for this report. |
53.9 Level |
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Manufacturing |
The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector accelerated in December 2011, its best month since June 2011. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in December 2011. |
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Tue |
Construction Spending |
Spending on construction projects rose 1.2% in November 2011 as builders spent more on single-family homes, apartments and remodeling projects. A revised 0.2% drop in October 2011 reported. |
1.2% |
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Growth |
The increase was the third in four months and the largest since a 2.2% rise in August 2011. The November 2011 increase was led by a 2.0% gain in private residential outlays. |
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Tue |
FOMC Minutes 13.Dec.2011 |
The December 13, 2011 FOMC meeting: the economic recovery slowly strengthens, however, the Fed is cautious about adopting the view that economic data is strengthening. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
The Federal Reserve has decided to shift its communication strategy to show the likely path of interest rates. Fed meeting of January 24-25 will get a look at Fed forecasts for the fed funds rate. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Mortgage applications for the week ending December 30, 2011 decreased 3.7% from the week ending December 16, 2011 (two weeks prior). |
-3.7% |
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Real Estate |
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.7% compared with levels reported two weeks ago. The drop interrupts what had been a steady stream of good news out of the housing sector |
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Wed |
ICSC Goldman Index |
ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales index which is up 1.2% in the December 31 week for the third straight big weekly gain. |
1.2% |
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Sales and Inventories |
The year-on-year rate is at plus 5.3% -- the highest rate in six months and vs plus 2.9% just three weeks earlier. |
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Wed |
Motor Vehicle Sales |
Auto sales increased as consumer confidence reached an eight-month high in December. The rate may trail the 13.6 million seasonally adjusted pace in November, typically a slow sales month. |
13.63M |
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Sales and Inventories |
Light-vehicle sales in December may have run at a 13.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the average estimate of 14 analysts, up from the 12.5 million pace a year earlier. |
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Wed |
Johson Redbook |
Redbook Research reported that same-store sales increased 3.3% for the first week of January following a 4.9% gain in the prior week. Relative to December, sales declined 1.2%. |
3.3% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook Research expects January same-store sales growth of 2.9% year-over-year, or a decline relative to December of 1.6%. |
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Wed |
Factory Orders |
An increase in consumer spending and businesses replenishing their inventories lead to the surge in factory orders. Factories reported that orders grew by 1.8% the highest gain in over four months. |
1.8% |
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Manufacturing |
All signs lead to robust growth in 2012 and the manufacturing sector has held up well despite the slowdown in Europe. |
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Thu |
ADP Employment Report |
ADP today reported that employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 325,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis. |
325,000 |
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Employment |
The increase in December was the largest monthly gain since last December 2010 and nearly twice the average monthly gain since May when employment decelerated sharply. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Americans filing for first time jobless claims last week declined: 372,000 people filed for first-time benefits, down 15,000 from the revised reading for the week below. |
372K |
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Employment |
The figure is still slightly above the reading of 364,000 for the week ended Dec. 17, which marked the fewest people seeking help since April of 2008: another sign of an improving labor market. |
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Thu |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 25th consecutive month. The NMI registered 52.6% in December, 0.6 percentage point higher than November 2011. |
52.6 |
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Business Activity |
The 11 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December based on the NMI composite indexindicating continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. |
-76 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 76 billion cubic feet to 3,472 bcf in the December 30 week. A withdrawal of 80 bcf was expected. |
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Thu |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Oil futures ended a seesawing Wednesday modestly higher, drawing some strength from a recovery for U.S. stocks but amid low volumes as investors awaited data on inventories. |
2.2M |
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Commodity |
Weak demand made for a sweep of builds in weekly petroleum inventory data including a 2.2 million barrel build in oil stocks to 329.7 million barrels. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's balance sheet for the January 4 week shrank $8.4 billion after rising $10.0 billion the prior week. Total assets for the January 4 week dipped to $2.920 trillion. |
-8.4B |
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Government |
The latest decrease was led by an $8.7 billion drop in holdings of Treasuries after a $12.2 billion drop the prior week. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. M2 reported a $-1.9B from a prior week revised of $-6.4B. |
$-1.9B |
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Money Supply |
Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.91% this week, down from 3.95% last week and 4.77% a year ago. This is the fifth week in a row that the mortgage has averaged below 4%. |
3.91% |
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Interest Rates |
Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.23% this week, down from 3.24% last week and 4.13% a year ago: indicated the housing market and manufacturing industry are showing improvement. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, at 8.5%, continued to trend down. |
8.5% Rate |
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Employment |
Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. |
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| WEEK 01-2012 ENDING JAN. 06 |
Reports Commentary
Week 01-2012, first trading week of 2012, started with a Stock Rally after positive economic reports: the ISM MFG Index with a 6-month high and Construction Spending also higher with the largest increase since a 2.2% rise in August 2011. Mfg Sector Growing Faster with an up Trend of 29 months.
Benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hits record low indicating that the housing market and manufacturing industry are showing improvement.
The Fed's view of the economy at the december 13, 2011 meeting : Fed is on hold with extremely accommodative policy as the economic recovery slowly strengthens.
Altogether, the long-term trends in both initial and continuing claims suggest that the recover in the labor market is maintaining its momentum
Auto sales increased as consumer confidence reached an eight-month high in December. ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales index is up as well as Redbook research. An increase in consumer spending and businesses replenishing their inventories lead to the surge in factory orders.
The unemployment rate at 8.5%, lowest level in 2-3/4 years, continued to trend down. Fed probably won't begin a new round of bond purchases (QE 3) following last Friday's "encouraging" jobs report.
Larger-than-expected increase in Dec non-farm payrolls, +200,000 versus expectations of +150,000. The larger-than-expected increase in Dec manufacturing payrolls, +23,000 versus expectations of +5,000.
The unexpected increase in Dec. average weekly hours, +0.1 to 34.4 versus expectations of unchanged at 34.3, which may prompt employers to boost hiring as current employees work more hour.
New York Fed President Dudley said that the Fed may consider further monetary easing to improve the economic outlook.
Rating Week 01-2012
Week 01-2012, first trading week of 2012, has been rated POSITIVE. Our Global Vision Economic Reports experienced 11 Green Flags, and that says it all. With only 1 Red Flag Report in Real Estate which was a weeky Mortgage Aplications the Markets continued to trend up. However, the housing market has shown improvements for the last weeks. |
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| MARKET PROFILE |
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WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 01 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
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RESISTANCE 1 |
1,268.00 |
2.76% |
1.00% |
|
RESISTANCE 2 |
1,255.50 |
1.74% |
0.00% |
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CLOSE DEC 30 |
1,234.00 |
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OPEN JAN 02 |
1,255.50 |
1.74% |
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SUPPORT 1 |
1,252.25 |
1.48% |
-0.26% |
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SUPPORT 2 |
1,244.00 |
0.81% |
-0.92% |
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