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Week 48 -2012 | From Nov 26 to Nov 30, 2012 |
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Economic Data for Week 48-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 48-2012 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the (CFNAI) decreased to -0.56 in October from 0 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and only two made positive contributions to the index in October. CFNAI Back In Contraction |
-0.56
Level
|
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 |
Growth |
The index’s 3-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from -0.36 in September to -0.56 in October, its eighth consecutive reading below zero. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.� |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Index |
The ICSC Chain Store Sales Index rose 3.3% in the week ended Saturday from the week earlier on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. . |
3.3%
W/W
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 |
Sales and Inventories |
On a year-on-year basis, the reading was up 4%--the strongest weekly growth since May. Black Friday promotions, extended store hours on Thanksgiving Day and online sales attracted shoppers |
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Tue |
Durable Goods Orders |
U.S. durable-goods orders unchanged in October. Durable goods orders were unchanged in October as gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products offset the drag from automobiles, defense and civilian aircraft. |
N/A |
|
 |
Manufacturing |
Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods were essentially flat in October, as declines in defense and transportation offset increases in metals, machinery and electrical equipment, |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook, like ICSC-Goldman earlier this morning, reports very strong sales during the November 24 week, at a year-on-year plus 4.5% for the strongest rate since March. |
4.5%
W/W
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 |
Sales and Inventories |
For the month of November as a whole, Redbook sees a solid 0.8% gain from October which points to strength for the government's ex-auto ex-gas reading in what would be a very good start to the holiday shopping season. |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a 0.3% increase in September following a 0.8% gain in August. Home prices are up 3% from the prior year. |
N/A |
|
 |
Real Estate |
U.S. home prices rose in September for the sixth month, signaling that the housing market is "in the midst of a recovery. |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
Consumer confidence rose to a four-and-a-half-year high to 73.7 in November from 73.1 in October. Consumers became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy. Both are the best readings since February 2008. |
N/A |
|
 |
Consumer |
U.S. consumer confidence rose this month to its highest level in almost five years, pushed up by steady improvement in hiring. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports that its house price index (FHFA HPI) increased 0.2% from August to September. This follow a 0.7% increase in August, leaving the index up 4.0% year over year. |
N/A |
|
 |
Real Estate |
FHFA Saw House Prices Rise 0.2% In September |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The refinance index is moving lower, down 2.0%. The Mortgage Bankers purchase index continues to trend higher, up 3.0% for the second week in a row. |
-0.9%
W/W
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 |
Real Estate |
Refinancing activity remains very strong, making up 81% of total applications with purchase applications making up the remaining 19%.� |
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Wed |
New Home Sales |
U.S. new-home sales decline in October; September sales figure revised lower. Government data for new home sales are subject to substantial revisions. Estimate for sales in September was cut by 20,000 to a 369,000-unit rate. |
368K |
|
 |
Real Estate |
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales dropped 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted 368,000-unit annual rate. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Crude-oil futures bounced higher Thursday on the heels of a three-session losing streak, as optimism over a potential U.S. resolution to the so-called fiscal cliff improved investors� appetite for risk |
N/A |
|
 |
Commodity |
A strong draw from refineries, which are increasing their capacity utilization, offset a rise in both imports and domestic production to make for a 0.3 million barrel draw in commercial oil inventories which stand at 374.1 million barrels. Inventories are extremely heavy, classified as well above the upper limit of their average range. |
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Wed |
Beige Book |
Business contacts told the Federal Reserve that manufacturing was either slowing or outright contracting as the fiscal cliff clouds the outlook for factory owners. |
N/A |
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 |
Interest Rates |
Fed�s Beige Book finds weak factory activity and Fiscal cliff concerns weighing on economy, Fed�s contacts. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000 in the week ended Nov. 24. but still staying elevated after superstorm Sandy. |
393K |
|
 |
Employment |
Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 416,000 from an original reading of 410,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.� |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in Q3 Preliminary., but the momentum is unlikely to be sustained as the nation braces for deep cuts in government spending and tax increases early next year. |
2.7% |
|
 |
Growth |
GDP expanded at a 2.7% annual rate as export growth also helped to offset the weakest consumer spending and first drop in business investment in more than a year. |
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Thu |
Corporate Profits |
Corporate profits in Q3-2012 rebounded to $1.752 trillion annualized, compared to $1.665 trillion in the second quarter. |
$1,752
Billions
|
|
 |
Growth |
Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 18.6%, compared to up 14.5% in the second quarter. United States corporate profits reached a record high in the third quarter of this year, even adjusted for inflation. |
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Thu |
Pending Home Sales |
The monthly gauge of pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors was also revised higher in September and is now up 13.2% from October of 2011. This is a forward looking indicator for closed sales one to two months from now. |
393K |
|
 |
Real Estate |
PHS index measuring the number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes in October jumped to nearly its highest level in almost six years. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural Gas for January delivery NGF13 -1.92% fell 1.3% to stand at $3.75 per million British thermal units |
-76 bcf |
|
 |
Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 4 billion cubic feet in the November 23 week to 3,877 bcf. A withdrawal of 11 bcf was expected. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
US Fed balance sheet liabilities fell to USD 2.834trl as of Nov 28 vs. USD 2.853trl the previous week. Fed holdings of US Treasuries total USD 1.647trl as of Nov 28 vs. USD 1.650trl the prev. week.
|
-8.4B |
|
 |
Government |
Fed holdings of agency debt total USD 79.28bln as of Nov 28 vs. USD 78.28bln the prev. week. Fed holdings of MBS total USD 883.5bln as of Nov 28 vs. USD 900.6bln the prev. week. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
|
$-1.9B |
|
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
It was a mixed week for mortgage rates, with fixed mortgage rates trickling lower, while adjustable rate loans bounced higher. The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate tied the record low of 3.52%, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.38 discount and origination points. |
3.91% |
|
 |
Interest Rates |
The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate held at 2.86% while the larger jumbo 30-year mortgage inched lower to 4%, resetting a record low for the 5thweek in a row. The 3-year ARM moved higher to 2.89% and the popular 5-year ARM bounced up to 2.74%. |
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|
Fri |
Personal Income |
Income was unchanged in October for the first time since April and followed a 0.4% gain in September. The department said private wages and salaries fell, reflecting work interruptions caused by Sandy. |
0.0% |
|
 |
Consumer |
Since spending fell compared to income growth, the personal savings rate edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, but it remained near a five-year low.� |
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|
Fri |
Consumer Spending Real PCE |
U.S. consumer spending fell in October for the first time in five months as income growth stalled, suggesting slower economic growth in the fourth quarter. |
-0.2% |
|
 |
Consumer |
The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending fell 0.2% after an unrevised 0.8% rise in September. |
|
|
Fri |
Core PCE |
The amount of income at the disposal of households after inflation and taxes dipped 0.1% after being flat in September. Despite weak income growth, the saving rate rose to 3.4% from 3.3% the prior month. |
0.1% |
|
 |
Inflation |
Inflation as gauged by the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased a scant 0.1% last month. The core index is up 1.6% over the past 12 months, the same as in September.� |
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Fri |
Chicago PMI |
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Manufacturing |
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| WEEK 48-2012 ENDING NOV. 30 |
Reports Commentary
In another sign of a housing market rebound, home prices posted the biggest percentage gain in more than two years in the third quarter, according to the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national index measuring prices in 20 cities rose 3% in September compared with the same month a year ago. We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rebounded 1.7% last month after falling 0.4% the prior month.
Despite the headwinds, (fiscal cliff and Europe worries), the manufacturing sector continues to grow, though modestly. Durable goods orders were unchanged in October as gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products offset the drag from automobiles, defense and civilian aircraft.
Americans are more optimistic because they see the job market getting better. Employers added 171,000 jobs in October and more jobs were created in August and September than first thought.
This week Beige Report prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, was based on information collected before Nov. 14. There was only modest improvements in hiring activity across the country. The Fed has said it will continue its third round of asset purchases until there is substantial improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s report is a collection of anecdotes from business contracts across the country. It is designed to give the policy makers a feel for economic conditions as they prepare for their next monetary policy meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.
A pickup in consumer spending and steady home sales helped lift economic growth in October and early November in most parts of the United States, according to a Federal Reserve survey Beige Book. The one exception was the Northeast, which was slowed by Superstorm Sandy.
The U.S. economy expanded at 2.7% pace in the third quarter, mostly because of higher inventories and exports. Inventories rose by $61.3 billion in the third quarter compared to $41.4 billion in the second quarter. Exports were revised up to a 1.1% increase from a 1.6% decline and imports were revised to 0.1% rise from a 0.2% drop.�
Pending home sales are now at the highest level since March of 2007 and have risen, on a year-over-year basis, for 18 consecutive months. The activity, however, varies from region to region, and the Realtors say the Northeast, which saw a 0.1% drop in sales month-to-month- did see some impact from Hurricane Sandy.
Jobless Americans have collected more than half a trillion dollars in benefits over the past five years.
While the economy grew 2.7% in the third quarter after advancing 1.3% in the prior three months, much of the boost came from the restocking of goods and robust government spending. That is likely to be lost in the final three months of the year.� |
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| MARKET PROFILE |
 |
WEEKS 2012 |
WEEK 48 |
% FROM CLOSE |
% FROM OPEN |
 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
1,330.25 |
1.39% |
1.35% |
 |
RESISTANCE 2 |
1,326.25 |
1.08% |
1.04% |
 |
CLOSE MAR 02 |
1,350.00 |
|
|
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OPEN MAR 04 |
1,255.00 |
0.04% |
|
 |
SUPPORT 1 |
1,289.00 |
0.66% |
0.62% |
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SUPPORT 2 |
1,283.50 |
0.08% |
0.04% |
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