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Week 48 - 2012
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Week 48 -2012 | From Nov 26 to Nov 30, 2012
   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Nov. 26
Tue - Nov. 27
Wed - Nov. 28
Thu - Nov. 29
Fri - Nov. 30
     
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Economic Data for Week 48-2012 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 48-2012 LAST
Mon Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Led by declines in production-related indicators, the (CFNAI) decreased to -0.56 in October from 0 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and only two made positive contributions to the index in October. CFNAI Back In Contraction
-0.56
Level
Growth The index’s 3-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from -0.36 in September to -0.56 in October, its eighth consecutive reading below zero. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.�
Negative View
Tue ICSC Goldman Index The ICSC Chain Store Sales Index rose 3.3% in the week ended Saturday from the week earlier on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. .
3.3%
W/W
Chart View Sales and Inventories On a year-on-year basis, the reading was up 4%--the strongest weekly growth since May. Black Friday promotions, extended store hours on Thanksgiving Day and online sales attracted shoppers
Positive View
Tue Durable Goods Orders U.S. durable-goods orders unchanged in October. Durable goods orders were unchanged in October as gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products offset the drag from automobiles, defense and civilian aircraft.
N/A
Chart View Manufacturing Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods were essentially flat in October, as declines in defense and transportation offset increases in metals, machinery and electrical equipment,
Neutral View
Tue Johnson Redbook Redbook, like ICSC-Goldman earlier this morning, reports very strong sales during the November 24 week, at a year-on-year plus 4.5% for the strongest rate since March.
4.5%
W/W
Chart View Sales and Inventories For the month of November as a whole, Redbook sees a solid 0.8% gain from October which points to strength for the government's ex-auto ex-gas reading in what would be a very good start to the holiday shopping season.
Positive View
Tue S&P Case-Shiller Index The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a 0.3% increase in September following a 0.8% gain in August. Home prices are up 3% from the prior year.
N/A
Chart View Real Estate U.S. home prices rose in September for the sixth month, signaling that the housing market is "in the midst of a recovery.
Positive View
Tue Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence rose to a four-and-a-half-year high to 73.7 in November from 73.1 in October. Consumers became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy. Both are the best readings since February 2008.
N/A
Chart View Consumer U.S. consumer confidence rose this month to its highest level in almost five years, pushed up by steady improvement in hiring.
Positive View
Tue FHFA House Price Index The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports that its house price index (FHFA HPI) increased 0.2% from August to September. This follow a 0.7% increase in August, leaving the index up 4.0% year over year.
N/A
Chart View Real Estate FHFA Saw House Prices Rise 0.2% In September
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The refinance index is moving lower, down 2.0%. The Mortgage Bankers purchase index continues to trend higher, up 3.0% for the second week in a row.
-0.9%
W/W
Real Estate Refinancing activity remains very strong, making up 81% of total applications with purchase applications making up the remaining 19%.�
Negative View
Wed New Home Sales U.S. new-home sales decline in October; September sales figure revised lower. Government data for new home sales are subject to substantial revisions. Estimate for sales in September was cut by 20,000 to a 369,000-unit rate.
368K
Chart View Real Estate The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales dropped 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted 368,000-unit annual rate.
Negative View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Report Crude-oil futures bounced higher Thursday on the heels of a three-session losing streak, as optimism over a potential U.S. resolution to the so-called fiscal cliff improved investors� appetite for risk
N/A
Chart View Commodity A strong draw from refineries, which are increasing their capacity utilization, offset a rise in both imports and domestic production to make for a 0.3 million barrel draw in commercial oil inventories which stand at 374.1 million barrels. Inventories are extremely heavy, classified as well above the upper limit of their average range.
Negative View
Wed Beige Book Business contacts told the Federal Reserve that manufacturing was either slowing or outright contracting as the fiscal cliff clouds the outlook for factory owners.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates Fed�s Beige Book finds weak factory activity and Fiscal cliff concerns weighing on economy, Fed�s contacts.
Negative View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000 in the week ended Nov. 24. but still staying elevated after superstorm Sandy.
393K
Employment Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 416,000 from an original reading of 410,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.�
Positive View
Thu Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in Q3 Preliminary., but the momentum is unlikely to be sustained as the nation braces for deep cuts in government spending and tax increases early next year.
2.7%
Growth GDP expanded at a 2.7% annual rate as export growth also helped to offset the weakest consumer spending and first drop in business investment in more than a year.
Positive View
Thu Corporate Profits Corporate profits in Q3-2012 rebounded to $1.752 trillion annualized, compared to $1.665 trillion in the second quarter.
$1,752
Billions
Growth Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 18.6%, compared to up 14.5% in the second quarter. United States corporate profits reached a record high in the third quarter of this year, even adjusted for inflation.
Positive View
Thu Pending Home Sales The monthly gauge of pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors was also revised higher in September and is now up 13.2% from October of 2011. This is a forward looking indicator for closed sales one to two months from now.
393K
Chart View Real Estate PHS index measuring the number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes in October jumped to nearly its highest level in almost six years.
Positive View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural Gas for January delivery NGF13 -1.92% fell 1.3% to stand at $3.75 per million British thermal units
-76 bcf
Commodity Natural gas in storage rose 4 billion cubic feet in the November 23 week to 3,877 bcf. A withdrawal of 11 bcf was expected.
N/A
Thu Fed Balance Sheet

US Fed balance sheet liabilities fell to USD 2.834trl as of Nov 28 vs. USD 2.853trl the previous week. Fed holdings of US Treasuries total USD 1.647trl as of Nov 28 vs. USD 1.650trl the prev. week.

-8.4B
Government Fed holdings of agency debt total USD 79.28bln as of Nov 28 vs. USD 78.28bln the prev. week. Fed holdings of MBS total USD 883.5bln as of Nov 28 vs. USD 900.6bln the prev. week.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply  
$-1.9B
Money Supply  
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates It was a mixed week for mortgage rates, with fixed mortgage rates trickling lower, while adjustable rate loans bounced higher. The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate tied the record low of 3.52%, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.38 discount and origination points.
3.91%
Chart View Interest Rates The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate held at 2.86% while the larger jumbo 30-year mortgage inched lower to 4%, resetting a record low for the 5thweek in a row. The 3-year ARM moved higher to 2.89% and the popular 5-year ARM bounced up to 2.74%.
Positive View
Fri Personal Income Income was unchanged in October for the first time since April and followed a 0.4% gain in September. The department said private wages and salaries fell, reflecting work interruptions caused by Sandy.
0.0%
Chart View Consumer Since spending fell compared to income growth, the personal savings rate edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, but it remained near a five-year low.�
Neutral View
Fri Consumer Spending Real PCE U.S. consumer spending fell in October for the first time in five months as income growth stalled, suggesting slower economic growth in the fourth quarter.
-0.2%
Chart View Consumer The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending fell 0.2% after an unrevised 0.8% rise in September.
Negative View
Fri Core PCE The amount of income at the disposal of households after inflation and taxes dipped 0.1% after being flat in September. Despite weak income growth, the saving rate rose to 3.4% from 3.3% the prior month.
0.1%
Chart View Inflation Inflation as gauged by the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased a scant 0.1% last month. The core index is up 1.6% over the past 12 months, the same as in September.�
Neutral View
Fri Chicago PMI    
Chart View Manufacturing    
     
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WEEK 48-2012
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 48-2012
01. Interest Rates
Non Available
 
02. Growth
Non Available
GDP Growth Pushed Up to 2.7%
03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
Non Available
Jobless Claims Slip
05. Real Estate
Non Available
Pending Home Sales Surge to Five Year High
06. Manufacturing
Non Available
 
07. Consumer
Non Available
Sandy Takes Toll on Spending; No Growth in Income
08. Sales & Inventories
Non Available
 
09. Business Activity
Non Available
 
10. Government
Non Available
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
Non Available
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 48-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 48 -2012
01. Commodities
Non Available
Oil and Natural Gas: Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
02. Bond Market
Non Available
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
03. S&P 500 Index
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
04. U.S. Dollar and FX
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
05. Major Economies
Non Available
Bond and stock prices are both influenced by Major Economies like China.
TOTAL WEEK 48-2012
0
0
0
Non Available
Week 48, 2012 has been rated...
   
         
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LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 48-2012 ENDING NOV. 30
Reports Commentary

In another sign of a housing market rebound, home prices posted the biggest percentage gain in more than two years in the third quarter, according to the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller national index measuring prices in 20 cities rose 3% in September compared with the same month a year ago. We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rebounded 1.7% last month after falling 0.4% the prior month.

Despite the headwinds, (fiscal cliff and Europe worries), the manufacturing sector continues to grow, though modestly. Durable goods orders were unchanged in October as gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products offset the drag from automobiles, defense and civilian aircraft.

Americans are more optimistic because they see the job market getting better. Employers added 171,000 jobs in October and more jobs were created in August and September than first thought.

This week Beige Report prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, was based on information collected before Nov. 14. There was only modest improvements in hiring activity across the country. The Fed has said it will continue its third round of asset purchases until there is substantial improvement in the labor market. The Fed’s report is a collection of anecdotes from business contracts across the country. It is designed to give the policy makers a feel for economic conditions as they prepare for their next monetary policy meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.

A pickup in consumer spending and steady home sales helped lift economic growth in October and early November in most parts of the United States, according to a Federal Reserve survey Beige Book. The one exception was the Northeast, which was slowed by Superstorm Sandy.

The U.S. economy expanded at 2.7% pace in the third quarter, mostly because of higher inventories and exports. Inventories rose by $61.3 billion in the third quarter compared to $41.4 billion in the second quarter. Exports were revised up to a 1.1% increase from a 1.6% decline and imports were revised to 0.1% rise from a 0.2% drop.�

Pending home sales are now at the highest level since March of 2007 and have risen, on a year-over-year basis, for 18 consecutive months. The activity, however, varies from region to region, and the Realtors say the Northeast, which saw a 0.1% drop in sales month-to-month- did see some impact from Hurricane Sandy.

Jobless Americans have collected more than half a trillion dollars in benefits over the past five years.

While the economy grew 2.7% in the third quarter after advancing 1.3% in the prior three months, much of the boost came from the restocking of goods and robust government spending. That is likely to be lost in the final three months of the year.�

       
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S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (ES)
MARKET PROFILE WEEK 48-2012 ENDING NOV 30
     
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MARKET PROFILE
Levels WEEKS 2012 WEEK 48 % FROM CLOSE % FROM OPEN
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
CLOSE MAR 02
OPEN MAR 04
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
         
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