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Week 52 -2013 | From Dec. 23 to Dec. 27, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 52-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 52-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
Most economic data have been turning higher, reflected in the national activity index which jumped to plus 0.60 in November from an upwardly revised minus 0.07 in October. |
0.60 |
|
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Growth |
The 3-month average is also rising, to plus 0.25 in November vs an upwardly revised plus 0.12 in October. Readings in the plus column indicate that the economy is growing above its historical trend. |
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Mon |
Personal Income |
Personal income rebounded 0.2%, following a 0.1% dip in October 2013. But the important wages and salaries component improved to a 0.4% gain in November 2013 after rising 0.1% the month before. |
0.2% |
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Consumer |
November 2013 was an uncertain month for the consumer in terms of sentiment. But in terms of hard numbers, it was a good month. |
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Mon |
Consumer Spending/Real PCE |
Spending also accelerated a bit, jumping 0.5% after a 0.4% boost in October. No surprise, the latest gain was led by durables (largely motor vehicles) up 1.9%, following a 1.0% increase in October 2013. |
0.5% |
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Consumer |
Nondurables declined 0.4% after a 0.4% decrease in October. Lower gasoline prices likely played a role in November 2013. Services jumped 0.6 in November, following a 0.3% rise the prior month. |
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Mon |
Core PCE |
Inflation was non-existent. Headline inflation was unchanged on the month for both November 2013 and October 2013. Core inflation rose 0.1% in each of the latest two months. |
0.1% |
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Inflation |
On a year-ago basis, overall PCE price inflation posted at 0.9% in November, compared to 0.7% in October 2013. Core inflation came in at 1.1% in both November 2013 and October 2013. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The Conference Board said its sentiment index climbed to 78.1 from 72 in November 2013, exceeding the median forecast of economists and the strongest year-end reading since 2007. |
82.5 |
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Consumer |
Consumer sentiment has held steady and solid the last two weeks, unchanged at 82.5 for final December vs mid-month. But it's the comparison with final November's 75.1 that points to an especially good month for consumer spending in December 2013. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
Weekly sales rose by 1.4% for the week ending Dec. 21, 2013. According to figures from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and the Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index, on a year-over-year basis, the pace of sales also improved and grew by 2.7%. |
2.7%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
For December, ICSC Research expects monthly sales will increase between 3% and 4% as the promotional environment continues to be intense. |
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Tue |
Durable Goods Orders |
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Tuesday orders for durable goods jumped 3.5% last month compared with October 2013, when they had fallen 0.7%. The increase was led by a 21.8% surge in demand for commercial aircraft, which can be volatile. |
3.5% |
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Manufacturing |
The surge in orders for durable goods, which are products expected to last at least three years, was the latest evidence of a rebound in manufacturing. The gains will likely provide support for the economy into 2014. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
National chain-store sales were down 1% in the first three weeks of December 2013, compared with the comparable period in November, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday. As of the week ended Dec. 21, the index's decline compared with a target for a 0.4% drop. |
3.9%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
For the third week of December 2013, sales were up 3.9% from a year earlier. Month-to-date, December was up 3.1% compared with December 2012. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
U.S. house price appreciation continued in October 2013, with prices rising 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). |
0.5% |
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Real Estate |
The October HPI change marks the twenty- first consecutive monthly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index. The previously reported 0.3% increase in September was revised downward to a 0. 2% increase. |
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Tue |
New Home Sales |
Purchases of new U.S. homes exceeded projections in November 2013, holding near a five-year high and showing the housing recovery was gaining momentum even as mortgage rates climbed. |
464K |
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Real Estate |
Sales declined 2.1% to a 464,000 annualized pace, following a revised 474,000 rate in October 2013 that was the strongest since July 2008, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. |
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Wed |
Christmas Day |
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N/A |
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U.S. Market Holidays |
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Thu |
MBA Purchase Applications |
Mortgage applications decreased 6.3% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 20, 2013 released Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2013. |
-6.3% |
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Real Estate |
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7% compared with the previous week. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 341,000. |
338K |
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Employment |
The 4-week moving average was 357,250, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average of 348,750. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the December 25 week, the Fed balance sheet increased $24.5 billion after rising $14.1 billion the week before. |
$24.5B |
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Government |
Holdings of Treasuries gained $11.5 billion, following a rise of $2.2 billion the prior period while mortgage-backed securities rose $11.5 billion after an increase of $2.4 billion in the December 18 week. Total assets for the December 25 week came in at $4.033 trillion. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $5.0 Billions from $17.5 Billions revised to $17.3 Billions. |
$5.0B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 4.48% in the week that ended Dec. 26, up more than one percentage point from 3.34% at the beginning of the year, federally controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac FMCC reported. |
4.48% |
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Interest Rates |
Meanwhile, the average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.52% from 3.51%. |
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Fri |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Prior -285 bcf Actual -177 bcf. |
-177bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 177 billion cubic feet in the December 20 week to 3,071 bcf. A withdrawal of about 175 bcf was expected. |
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Fri |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Very heavy demand from refineries pulled oil inventories down by 4.7 million barrels in the December 20 week to 367.6 million. |
-4.7M
Barrels
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Commodity |
This is a 4th straight weekly draw amid a year-end production push at refineries which operated at 92.7% for the highest weekly capacity utilization rate since the peak season in July. |
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| WEEK 52-2013 ENDING DEC. 27 |
Reports Commentary
The biggest employment gain in eight years, the rebound in housing and record stock values are boosting household wealth, which will help support spending in the new year.
Another report today showed home prices in 20 cities rose in October from a year ago by the most since February 2006, signaling the real-estate rebound will keep bolstering household wealth. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices climbed 13.6% from October 2012 after a 13.3% increase in the year ended in September.
A dwindling inventory of foreclosed properties has helped restrict the supply of homes for sale, pushing up prices even as higher mortgage rate cool demand. The real-estate market will probably get its next boost from gains in employment.
Higher rates are behind some slowing in the housing market’s recovery, economists say, pointing to trends such as pending home sales falling in October for a fifth monthly slump. Such a decline makes sense given that rising rates lower affordability, cutting some demand.
However, fresh data signal that buyers may be adjusting to the pricier home-sales environment. And as long as jobs growth keeps up, home sales are expected to rise next year, even in the face of more expensive properties, new rules for loans and an evolving housing-finance environment. |
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Blog week 52. |
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