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Week 34 - 2013
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Week 34 -2013 | From Aug. 19 to Aug. 23, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Aug. 19
Tue - Aug. 20
Wed - Aug. 21
Thu - Aug. 22
Fri - Aug. 23
         
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Economic Data for Week 34-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 34-2013 LAST
Mon Non Reports for Our Global Vision There will be no U.S. Market Activity Today.
N/A
No Reports There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday.
Non Available
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 1.9% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, despite weather that was favorable for back-to-school shoppers.
2.2%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories ICSC continued to expect August 2013 industry sales will increase 4.5% to 5%. On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 2.2%.
Negative View
Tue Chicago Fed National Activity Index The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index improves to -0.15 in July 2013 from revised -0.23 in June 2013.
-0.15
Chart View Growth July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased slightly from June 2013, but only two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July 2013.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook The Redbook index advanced 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.4% over the last twelve months in the week ended on August 10, against previous prints at 0.4% and 3.7%, respectively
3.4%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Redbook notes early strength for back-to-school sales especially in the South where school starts earlier than other regions.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for U.S. home loans fell for a second straight week and higher interest rates reduced refinancing activity, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
-4.6%
W/W
Chart View Real Estate The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 4.6% in the week ended August 16.
Negative View
Wed Bank Reserve Settlement Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.
N/A
Chart View Banking System Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday.
Neutral View
Wed Existing Home Sales Index U.S. home resales rose in July 2013 to their highest level in over three years, suggesting a sharp increase in borrowing costs is having only a limited impact on the housing market's recovery.
6.5%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday that existing home sales jumped 6.5% to an annual rate of 5.39 million unit.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Imports are up and so is domestic production but oil inventories continue to decline, down 1.4 million barrels in the August 16 week for the seventh draw in eight weeks.
-1.4M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Nevertheless, at 359.1 million barrels oil inventories remain heavy.
Neutral View
Wed FOMC Meeting Announcement The main issue at hand for investors remains a tapering of the central bank's bond-buying program aimed at stimulating the economy.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates As far as the economy goes, today's biggest report was on existing home sales. The National Association of Realtors says sales rose 6.5% in July to an annual rate of 5.39 million homes. Expectations had been for a figure of 5.15 million units annually. June's number was 5.08 million.
Neutral View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 13,000 to 336,000, just above the level expected by economists, Labor Department data showed on Thursday.
336K
Chart View Employment The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week but held close to a six-year low and gave a positive signal for hiring during the month.
Negative View
Thu FHFA House Price Index

U.S. housing prices grew in June 2013, with the FHFA House Price Index rising to 0.7%, beating expectations of 0.6%.

0.7%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate Prices rose 2.1% in Q2 from the previous quarter, the eighth consecutive quarterly price increase, according to the report.
Positive View
Thu Leading Indicators The Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.6% after no change in June 2013, the New York-based group said today. Another report showed the fewest Americans since November 2007 filed applications for unemployment benefits in the past month.
0.6%
Chart View Business Activity The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed in July by the most in three months, signaling improvements in housing and labor markets will help foster faster economic growth through year-end.
Positive View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Gas gained 2.5% after the Energy Information Administration said inventories rose 57 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 16 to 3.063 trillion cubic feet. Analyst estimates compiled showed a gain of 65 billion.
57
bcf
Chart View Commodity A survey predicted an increase of 62 billion. Natural gas in storage rose 57 billion cubic feet in the August 16 week to 3,063 bcf from 65 bcf last week.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet For the August 21 week, the Fed balance sheet shrank $0.7 billion after jumping $61.0 billion the week before. The dip was led by a $13.6 billion drop in "other assets".
$-0.7B
Chart View Government Holdings of Treasuries increased $11.1 billion. Mortgage-backed securities gained $3.4 billion. From $61.0B last year.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply

M2 Weekly Change $-23.5 Billions from $21.9 Billions revised to $21.9 Billions.

$-23.5B
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates

The U.S. mortgage giant said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rose to 4.58% in the week ending Aug. 22 from 4.40% in the prior week, spiking more than a full percentage point since early May 2013.

4.58%
Chart View Interest Rates U.S. fixed mortgage rates hit two-year high on Fed tapering speculation. The 15-year FRM, a popular choice for those looking to refinance, also rose to 3.60% this week from 3.44% for the previous week.
Negative View
Fri New Home Sales Sales dropped 13.4% to an annual rate of 394,000 units, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government also revised sharply lower its estimate for home sales in June 2013.
394K
Chart View Real Estate Sales of new single-family homes in America fell sharply in July 2013 to their lowest level in nine months, casting a shadow over the country's housing recovery.
Negative View
     
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WEEK 34-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 34-2013
01. Interest Rates
1
1
Negative View
 
02. Growth
1
Negative View
 
03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
1
Negative View
 
05. Real Estate
2
2
Neutral View
 
06. Manufacturing
Non Available
 
07. Consumer
Non Available
 
08. Sales & Inventories
1
1
Neutral View
 
09. Business Activity
1
Positive View
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 34-2013
4
6
3
Negative View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 34 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 34-2013
4
6
5
Negative View
Week 34, 2013 has been rated negative.
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 34-2013 ENDING AUG. 23
Reports Commentary

Always Remember These 2 Facts about the Dow:

778 points down that was the single point drop record it set on September 29, 2008.

And the single day percentage drop record on the Dow of 22% was set on October 19, 1987.

Balance Sheet

Assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet are SECURITIES THEY OWN and proceeds of those in terms of yields as well as total value proceeds at maturity are PAID TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE by the US Treasury and other parties.

The Federal Reserve now has about $3.5 trillion in assets on their balance sheet. That is offset by LIABILITIES which include the $2.3 trillion in the excess reserves accounts of the banks at the Federal Reserve which is where the QE funds are to offset the asset purchases.

As to QE (Quantatative Easing it refers to ANY ASSET PURCHASES by the Federal Reserve that infuse liquidity (funds) into the banking system offset by assets.

The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in bonds in an effort to reduce borrowing costs. Policymakers are expected to reduce monthly purchases next month, and financial markets were awaiting for clues on this from the minutes of the Fed's minutes for its most recent meeting later on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market as it mulls plans to draw down a major economic stimulus program in which it buys long term bonds to keep borrowing costs low.

The U.S. central bank has said it plans to start scaling back on the program this year, and many economists expect the Fed will begin reducing monthly bond purchases next month.

mortgage rates

July's increase marked the fastest pace of sales since November 2009, when a home buyer tax credit was expiring. Since early May, mortgage rates for 30-year loans have risen more than a percentage point.

Last week, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose 12 basis points to 4.68%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report on Wednesday. The higher rates are already making it harder for people to refinance their loans. The MBA said applications for U.S. home loans fell 4.6% in the week ended August 16. as refinancing activity slumped.

Manufacturing

U.S. manufacturing activity hit a five-month high in August as hiring picked up and new orders increased at their fastest pace since January, an industry report showed on Thursday.

Financial data firm Markit said its "flash," or preliminary, U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.9, its best showing since March, and just below economists' forecast of 54.0. The index stood at 53.7 in July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Nasdaq Failed for 3 hours

A technical glitch knocked out trading in all Nasdaq Stock Market securities for three hours Thursday afternoon, an unprecedented meltdown for a U.S. exchange that paralyzed a broad swath of markets and highlighted the fragility of the financial world's electronic backbone.

       
    To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:    
    Mortgage Rates are Now at 4.4%    
         
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