Durable Goods Ordes

July's decline was the first in four months. In June, total orders rose 3.9%, but were up only 0.1% excluding transportation.

Businesses and consumers typically make big-ticket purchases when they are confident about the economy. The decline suggests potential weakness ahead, despite expectations for a stronger second half of the year.

July's drop in business spending could reflect mounting worries about higher borrowing rates, which raise the costs for businesses to finance large purchases. A drop in new-home sales in July, reported Friday, also was attributed partly to rising mortgage rates.

Growth

The weaker outlook for business spending led several economists to trim their forecasts for economic growth in the current quarter. Morgan Stanley economists cut their third-quarter growth estimate to an annual rate of 2.3% from 2.7%. Macroeconomic Advisers lowered its third-quarter projection by 0.2 percentage point to a 1.8% rate.

Debt and Borrowing Cost

Borrowing costs have climbed by more than a percentage point since late May on the view that the Federal Reserve will soon reduce its monthly bond purchases, which have kept a ceiling on rates.

The Fed began the bond purchasing program nearly a year ago to boost a sluggish recovery in the U.S. economy.

Higher rates have dissuaded borrowers from refinancing existing home loans. The refinance index fell 5.4% last week, and the refinance share of total mortgage activity slid to 60%, the lowest since April of 2011.

That has injected some uncertainty into the debate about when the Fed will start slowing its stimulus. Markets largely expect the Fed to pull back next month, though many analysts say the U.S. central bank will think twice about higher long-term interest rates if there is evidence the rates are hurting housing.

Still, rates remain low by historical standards and most economists do not expect the higher costs to end the recovery altogether. In the short-term, it could also spur potential buyers to act before rates rise further.

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