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Week 50 -2013 | From Dec. 09 to Dec. 13, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 50-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 50-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 1.6% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. |
1.5%
Y/Y
|
|
 |
Sales and Inventories |
The post-Thanksgiving lull once again set in after the frantic pace of shopping during the Thanksgiving week. It has now become relatively typical to experience a 'lull' in the aftermath of Thanksgiving week sales with the exception of a very strong Cyber Monday performance. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
After seasonal adjustment, for the week ended 7 December, the U.S. chain store sales increased 2.6% year-on-year, as compared to the 4.9% growth in the previous week, Redbook Research reported. |
2.6%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
The Redbook weekly retail sales report fell from +4.9% to only 2.6% year over year growth. That is not what you want to see during the holidays. Even worse was the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales announcement which showed even lower results at only +1.5%. |
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Tue |
Wholesale Trade |
A heavy inventory build in the third quarter is now a central concern for the fourth-quarter outlook. Inventories and sales of autos continue to swing wildly in the wholesale sector reflecting heavy activity. |
1.4% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Wholesale inventories opened up the quarter with a very sharp 1.4% rise in October 2013, above a 1.0% rise in sales but still enough in line to keep the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged for a third month at 1.18. This ratio is up from a recent low of 1.17 in June and July. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose slightly last week after five consecutive weeks of declines, an industry group said on Wednesday. |
1.0%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 1% in the week ended December 6. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change: -10.585M in December 6 from -5.585M. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 375.2 million barrels as of last week. |
-10.6M
Barrels
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Commodity |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 10.59 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 6, well beyond expectations for a decline of 2.95 million barrels, due in part to a drop in imports. |
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Fri |
Treasury Budget |
The budget deficit in the U.S. last month narrowed more than economists forecast as rising employment and a rallying stock market boosted revenue to a November 2013 record. |
$-135.2
Billions |
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Government |
Spending exceeded revenue by $135.2 billion, compared with $172.1 billion in November 2012, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists was for a $140 billion gap. Receipts rose 12.8% to the highest ever for the month, while spending fell 4.8%. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped last week from an almost three-month low, reflecting volatility that typically occurs around the year-end holidays. |
368K
Jobs
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Employment |
Jobless claims surged by 68,000 to a two-month high of 368,000 in the period ended Dec. 7, exceeding the highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The 300,000 applications filed in the prior week, which included Thanksgiving, were the fewest since Sept. 7. |
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Thu |
Retail Sales |
Retail sales jumped more than economists expected in November, raising spirits about the state of consumers and their spending pattern heading into the new year. |
0.7% |
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Sales and Inventories |
The Census Bureau said November 2013 sales rose 0.7%, the best gain in five months, beating forecasts for a 0.6% gain, The results include Black Friday, one of the biggest days of the holiday shopping season, but exclude Cyber Monday, which fell on Dec. 2 this year. |
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Thu |
Import and Export Prices |
The Labor Department showed the cost of goods imported into the U.S. decreased in November 2013, reflecting cheaper petroleum products. |
-0.6% |
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Inflation |
The import-price index fell 0.6% for a second month. Prices paid for imported petroleum dropped 3.5%, the most since June 2012. Over the past 12 months, the cost of goods from abroad declined 1.5%. |
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Thu |
Business Inventories |
U.S. business inventories rose more than expected in October, showing no signs of slowing yet after an aggressive accumulation in the third quarter left warehouses bulging with unsold stock. |
N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said on Thursday inventories increased 0.7%, the largest gain since January, after rising 0.6% in September. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
From -162 bcf. Natural gas jumped in New York, closing at the highest price in more than two years, on forecasts for colder-than-normal weather that would deplete stockpiles of the heating fuel. |
-81
bcf
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 81 billion cubic feet in the December 6 week to 3,533 bcf. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Federal Reserve’s record balance sheet neared $4 trillion as the central bank amasses Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to help lower long-term interest rates to spur economic growth. |
$61.3B |
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Government |
Assets rose $61.3 billion to $3.994 trillion in the past week. . The third round of so-called quantitative easing involving $85 billion in monthly bond buying began in September last year and was increased in December 2012. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet Dec. 17-18 to discuss whether to scale back the asset purchases. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $1.7 Billions from $15.4 Billions revised to $17.8 Billions. |
$1.7B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Fixed mortgage rates edged lower this week, with Freddie Mac reporting that lenders were offering 30-year fixed home loans at an average of 4.42%, down from 4.46% a week earlier. |
4.42% |
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Interest Rates |
The average offering rate for the 15-year fixed mortgage was 3.43%, down from 3.47% a week ago, Freddie Mac said Thursday. |
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Fri |
Producer Price Index |
U.S. producer prices fell for a third straight month in November 2013, pointing to a lack of inflation pressure that could give the Federal Reserve pause as it weighs the future of its monthly bond purchases. |
0.1% |
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Inflation |
The Labor Department said on Friday its seasonally adjusted producer price index slipped 0.1% as gasoline prices maintained their downward trend. |
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| WEEK 50-2013 ENDING DEC. 13 |
Reports Commentary
The Redbook weekly retail sales report fell from +4.9% to only 2.6% year over year growth. That is not what you want to see during the holidays. Even worse was the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales announcement which showed even lower results at only +1.5%.
U.S. Deficit
Declining unemployment has helped reduce the country’s deficit as a share of gross domestic product by more than half in the past four years to $680.3 billion in fiscal year ended Sept. 30 from a record $1.42 trillion in 2009. The Congressional Budget Office has projected the shortfall will shrink further this year and next as stronger economic growth lifts individual and corporate taxes.
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. Retail inventories, excluding autos - which go into the calculation of GDP - rose 0.2% after increasing 0.4% in September.
Businesses accumulated $116.5 billion worth of inventories during the third quarter, the most since the first quarter of 1998. Inventories accounted for almost half of the economy's 3.6% annualized growth pace in the July-September quarter.
U.S. Treasuries prices extended earlier gains after the data suggested inflation may remain below the Fed's target and erode the case for withdrawing stimulus soon.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Blog week 50. |
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