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Week 42 -2013 | From Oct. 14 to Oct. 18, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 42-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 42-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
U.S. Holiday: Columbus Day |
Markets are open but Banks are closed. |
N/A |
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US. Market Holidays |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 0.7% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, the weekly reading was up 1%. |
1.0%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
For the week, retail business was weak across the board compared with a year earlier, though weather was favorable for seasonal demand and gasoline prices were largely steady, according to Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. |
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Tue |
Empire State Mfg Survey |
The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index edged down to 1.5 in October 2013 from 6.3 in September 2013. |
1.52 |
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Manufacturing |
The decline was larger than expected. A survey of economists called for a reading of 6.0 in October 2013. Readings greater than zero signal expansion. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
On a year-on-year basis, the weekly reading for Johnson Redbook was down 3.2% from 3.3% last week. Redbook is reporting no effect from the Govt. Shutdown, but cooling temperatures. |
3.2%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
A separate survey conducted for ICSC and Goldman showed that about 40% of the respondents cut back on spending because of direct or indirect effects of the government's partial shutdown. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home loans rose slightly in the latest week as increased refinancing activity offset a decline in demand for purchase loans as the U.S. government shutdown weighed, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. |
0.3%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 0.3% in the week ended Oct. 11. That follows a gain of 1.3% in the week ended Oct. 4. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
Housing Market Index |
U.S. homebuilder sentiment slipped slightly in October on policy gridlock in Washington and higher labor costs, the National Association of Home Builders said on Wednesday. |
55
Level
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Real Estate |
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 55 in October 2013, the lowest since June 2013, but still positive. The September reading was initially reported at 58 but was revised lower to 57 on Wednesday. |
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Wed |
Beige Book |
Beige Book #7 is not pointing toward tapering at this month's FOMC meeting. The recovery is characterized as continuing at a "modest to moderate" pace. Growth decelerated in 4 Fed districts but remained about the same in 8 districts. Employment growth was seen as modest in September 2013. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Several Districts reported that contacts were cautious to expand payrolls, citing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and fiscal policy more generally. This is important as the Fed may not have an employment report for that month before the FOMC meeting. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial jobless claims dropped last week to 358,000 but remained high because of the partial federal government shutdown. |
358K |
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Employment |
The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits dropped from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000, which had surged because of the furlough of about 800,000 federal workers on Oct. 1, the Labor Department said Thursday. |
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Thu |
Housing Starts |
Housing starts, originally scheduled for release October 17, have been postponed to November 26, Week 48, due to the government shutdown. |
N/A |
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Real Estate |
N/A. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded more than projected in October 2013, a sign factories are sustaining the momentum gained prior to the partial federal shutdown that ended today. |
19.8 |
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Business Activity |
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to 19.8 this month from a more than two-year high of 22.3 in September 2013. Readings greater than zero signal growth in the area, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Prior 90 bcf Actual 77 bcf. |
77 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 77 billion cubic feet in the October 11 week. |
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Thu |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Total U.S. crude oil stocks, including stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract -- rose the week ended October 11 as refiners cut runs. |
4.0M
Barrels
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Commodity |
Cushing stocks rose 836,798 barrels the week ended October 11, according to Genscape data released Thursday. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the October 16 week, the Fed balance sheet grew $54.9 billion, after a gain of $11.3 billion the prior period. The increase was led by $45.6 billion jump in mortgage-backed securities with holdings of Treasuries rising $8.3 billion. |
$54.9B |
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Government |
Total assets for the October 16 week stood at $3.814 trillion. Reserve Bank credit for the October 16 week rose $51.1 billion, following an increase of $13.7 billion the week before. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $25.7 Billions from $50.4 Billions revised to $50.2 Billions. |
$25.7B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.28% in the week that ended Oct. 17 from 4.23% in the prior week, according to a Thursday report from federally controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. |
4.28% |
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Interest Rates |
A year earlier, the rate was at 3.37%. The average rate for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.33% in the latest week from 3.31% in the prior week. |
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Fri |
Leading Indicators |
Leading Indicators, originally scheduled for release October 18, have been postponed to November 07, Week 45, due to the government shutdown. |
N/A |
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Business Actvity |
N/A. |
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| WEEK 42-2013 ENDING OCT. 18 |
Reports Commentary
Columbus Day is a conceptual holiday at best. Christopher Columbus probably didn't land today, and he was probably not the first European to sail to America.
The purpose of Columbus' journey was never fulfilled, of course, but he did set in motion the series of events that would eventually lead to the current state of affairs.
Columbus Day was reportedly declared a Federal Holiday during the Great Depression, perhaps as some relief to the struggling masses.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing in the New York region improved at a slowest pace in five months in October, according to data released Tuesday.
The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early forecast of the national Institute for Supply Management factory survey due out in two weeks. In September, the ISM factory gauge rose to 56.2%. With the government shutdown, the data may receive greater scrutiny by markets.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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New Fed Boss Yellen: Govt Closed: Debt Looms |
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