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Week 41 -2013 | From Oct. 07 to Oct. 11, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 41-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 41-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Consumer Credit |
Consumer borrowing rose more than projected in August 2013 as Americans took out more loans for motor vehicle purchases and education.
|
$13.6B |
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Consumer |
The $13.6 billion increase in credit followed a $10.4 billion gain in July 2013, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Non-revolving debt, which includes financing for college tuition and motor vehicles, climbed $14.5 billion. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged down 0.1% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. |
1.8%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
With the backdrop of the federal government shutdown since last Tuesday, it is difficult to determine how much of the softening in retail business was due to that or other factors. |
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Tue |
U.S. Trade Balance |
The Trade Balance Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Balance of Payments |
Data Delayed. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook's same-store sales tally fell to a year-on-year plus 3.3% in the October 5 week for a 5 tenth decrease from the prior week and the lowest rate since late July 2013. |
3.3%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Weather was mixed regionally for retailers, while declining gasoline prices helped to lift potential discretionary purchasing power. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home loans rose in the latest week as demand for refinancing outpaced purchases, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. |
1.3%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 1.3% in the week ended October 4. |
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Wed |
Wholesale Trade |
The Whole Sale Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
Data Delayed. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil inventories rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Wednesday. Analysts had expected U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to rise 1.486M last month. |
6.8M
Barrels
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Commodity |
In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.807M, from 5.472M in the preceding month. |
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Wed |
FOMC Minutes #7 |
The debate within the Fed at the latest FOMC meeting, September 18, 2013, , clearly was on the warm side. However, several members saw whether to taper as a "close call."
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N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Those opposed to tapering in September 2013 took the position that the economy was too weak-notably job growth was inadequate. FOMC members arguing to taper indicated that not tapering would hurt the Fed's credibility. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits hit a six-month high last week amid a computer glitch in California, but the underlying trend pointed to a steadily improving labor market. |
374K |
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Employment |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 66,000 to a seasonally adjusted 374,000, the highest level since the end of March, the Labor Department said on Thursday. |
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Thu |
Import and Export Prices |
The Import and Export Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Inflation |
Data Delayed. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Prior 101 bcf Actual 90 bcf. |
90 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 90 billion cubic feet to 3,577 bcf in the October 4 week. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the October 9 week, the Fed balance sheet expanded $11.3 billion after gaining $13.4 billion week before. The advance was led by a $9.8 billion increase in Treasuries. "Other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) grew $2.4 billion. |
$11.3B |
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Government |
Total assets for the October 9 week were at $3.759 trillion. Reserve Bank credit for the October 9 week increased $13.7 billion, following an expansion of $2.1 billion the prior period. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $50.4 Billions from $38.1 Billions revised to $38.6 Billions. |
$50.4B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan edged up to 4.23 percent from 4.22 percent last week. |
4.23% |
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Interest Rates |
The average on the 15-year fixed loan rose to 3.31 percent from 3.29%. The 15-year, FRM increased to 3.31%, up from 3.29% last week, and a steep rebound from 2.7% a year ago. |
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Fri |
Producer Price Index |
The Whole Sale Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Inflation |
Data Delayed. |
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Fri |
Retail Sales |
The Retail Sale Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
Data Delayed. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
Consumer sentiment is down but not by a lot with the assessment of current conditions showing no significant change which is a welcome indication for October 2013 activity. |
75.2 |
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Consumer |
Sentiment slipped to 75.2 in the mid-month October reading vs 77.5 for final September and 76.8 for the mid-month September reading. But the current conditions component is actually up in the mid-month October reading, to 92.8 vs 92.6 in final September and 91.8 at mid-month September. |
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Fri |
Business Inventories |
The Business Inventories Report is delayed due to the federal budget impasse and will reported later when released. |
N/A |
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Sales and Inventories |
Data Delayed. |
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| WEEK 41-2013 ENDING OCT. 11 |
Reports Commentary
Mortgage rates began falling last month after the Federal Reserve held off slowing its $85-billion-a-month in bond purchases. The bond buys are intended to keep longer-term interest rates low, including mortgage rates.
Longer-term rates have also stayed low because of the partial government shutdown and a lack of government economic data.
The shutdown that began this month has spurred investors to sell stocks and buy Treasury bonds. Mortgage rates tend to follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The 10-year note traded at 2.67 percent Wednesday, up from 2.63 percent last week but down from 2.71 percent on Sept. 23.
The shutdown could also slow the housing recovery, if it last for more than a few weeks.
Some prospective borrowers are finding it harder to close on their mortgages. And some lenders are having a hard time getting confirmation of applicants' income tax returns and Social Security data because of government agency closures, delaying some mortgage closings.
Quicken Loans economist Bill Banfield noted that the 15-year FRM will remain an attractive investment option for consumers compared to the 30-year FRM in the forseeable future.
He made this conclusion on the grounds that the 15-year FRM is heavily impacted by the Federal Reserve funds rate, while the 30-year FRM continues to be influenced more by the central bank's tapering decisions. This dynamic will cause consumers to take advantage of the 15-year FRM before monetary policy begins to scale back, Banfield explained.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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4 Days of U.S. Gov Shutdown |
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