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Week 04 -2013 | From Jan. 21 to Jan. 25, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 04-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
FOR |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 04-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
A national activity index inched lower in December 2012 but remained in positive territory, the Chicago Fed said Tuesday. The index, designed so that zero readings indicate trend growth, fell to +0.02 in December 2012 from +0.27 in November 2012. |
0.02
Level
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Growth |
The three-month moving average was negative for the tenth straight month, rising to negative 0.11 from negative 0.13 in the prior month. This suggests that growth was below its historical trend. |
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Tue |
Existing Home Sales |
The National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday that existing home sales dropped 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units. |
4.94M |
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Real Estate |
Record low mortgage interest rates clearly are helping many home buyers, but tight inventory and restrictive mortgage underwriting standards are limiting sales |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
For the week ended Jan. 18, total application volume was up 7%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9% compared with the previous week and was 26% higher than the same week in 2011. |
7.0%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Demand for purchase loans continued to rise, with the weekly Purchase Index rising 3% from the previous week to its highest level since May 2010, when the first-time homebuyer tax credit expired. |
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Wed |
ICSC Goldman Index |
Store sales in the U.S. declined slightly this week, in what has been a very slow January for retailers. Store Sales - W/W change -1.5%. The ICSC-Goldman store sales index is up 3.2% from a year ago, compared to +3.3% Y/Y last week, which is very respectable. |
3.2%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Both reports have been predicting a slow January calling it a transitional month for retailers. Stores are still trying to dispose of winter inventory as they shift to new Spring season merchandise. |
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Wed |
Johson Redbook |
The Redbook Store Sales index is up 1.8% from a year ago, compared to a positive 1.9% Year to Year last week. |
1.8%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
For the January 18 Week, Week 03, Redbook Store Sales Y/Y change was 1.8%. Redbook shows that sales so far this month have been flat and trendless. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
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N/A |
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Banking System |
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Wed |
FHFA House Price Index |
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports that house prices increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis in November 2012. The previously reported 0.5% increase in October 2012 was revised upward to a 0.6% increase. For the 12 months ending in November 2012, U.S. prices rose 5.6%. |
0.6%
M/M
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Real Estate |
The U.S. index is 15.2% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the August 2004 index level. National home prices have not declined on a monthly basis since January 2011. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, the lowest level since January 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday. |
330K |
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Employment |
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to its lowest since the early days of the 2007-09 recession, a hopeful sign for the sluggish labor market. |
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Thu |
Leading Indicators |
The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.5% after the November reading was revised to unchanged from a previously reported decline, the New York-based group said today. |
0.5% |
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Business Activity |
The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in December 2012 by the most in three months, showing the world’s largest economy is poised to keep growing through the first half of this year. |
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Thu |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad for Week 03, ending January 18 was 2.8 Million Barrels. |
2.8M
Barrels
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Commodity |
The 2.8 million barrel build in oil inventories was due to soft demand from refineries. Inventories are at 363.1 million barrels which is well above their upper limit. Keep in mind that the level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for Week 03, ending January 18 fell 172 billion cubic feet to 2,996 bcf. |
-172bcf |
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Commodity |
U.S. EIA Natural Gas Storage change: -172B in Jan 18 from last weeek -148B. Keep in mind that the level of natural gas inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
Total Assets - Weekly Change $ 47.9 Billions. For the January 23 week, Week 04, Total Assets increased $47.9 billion, following a jumped of $35.1 billion the prior period. |
$47.9B |
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Government |
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 's unprecedented bond buying provided the impetus to push the Fed 's balance sheet to a staggering record of USD $3.0 trillion, even as he shows no sign of softening his effort to relinquish the 7.8% unemployment. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-26.6 Billions. |
$-26.6B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Fixed mortgage rates increased this week following positive economic news, with the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 3.66%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.35 discount and origination points.
|
3.66% |
|
 |
Interest Rates |
The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to a 4-month high of 2.94% and the larger jumbo 30-year mortgage climbed to 4.08%. |
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Fri |
New Home Sales |
The Commerce Department said on Friday sales dropped 7.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted 369,000-unit annual rate. That was below analysts' forecasts of a 385,000-unit annual pace. |
369K |
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Real Estate |
New U.S. single-family home sales fell in December although the median sales price rose and the sector still appears set to be a bright spot in the country's economic recovery. |
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| WEEK 04-2013 ENDING JAN. 25 |
Reports Commentary
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts in October, saying the world economy would grow 3.3% last year, the slowest since the 2009 recession, and 3.6% in 2013. That compared with July predictions of 3.5% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.
Housing
Despite the decline in December, existing-home sales are up 12.8% from the same period in the prior year. The median existing-home price rose 11.5% from the prior year to $180,800. Inventories fell 8.5% to 1.82 million units in December, representing at the current sales rate a 4.4-month supply, the lowest supply ratio since 2005. It 's typical for inventories to decline in winter.
U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in December as fewer people put their properties on the market, although not by enough to derail the boost housing will likely provide to the economy this year.
The nation's inventory of existing homes for sale fell 8.5% from November to 1.82 million, the lowest level since January 2001.
Many Americans are holding back from putting their homes on the market because they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Inventories were down 21.6% from December 2011. At the current pace of sales, inventories would be exhausted in 4.4 months, the lowest rate since May 2005.
The median price for a new home rose to $248,900 in December from $245,600 in November, according to figures that are not adjusted for seasonal swings. Rising prices are seen as a sign of improving health in the housing market.
Debt Ceiling
With tacit support from President Barack Obama, the GOP-controlled House approved an extension of the debt ceiling Wednesday, heading off an economy-rattling fiscal crisis for at least four months.
The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid dropped 71,000 to 3.16 million in the week ended Jan. 12.
Balance Sheet
The Fed is slated to purchase $85.0 billion of securities every month, using the full extent of its balance sheet to stimulate the economic recovery. Back in September, the central bank began $40.0 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and refused to allay this trend by supplementing an additional $45.0 billion in Treasury Securities to that pace this month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 's unprecedented bond buying provided the impetus to push the Fed 's balance sheet to a staggering record of USD $3.0 trillion, even as he shows no sign of softening his effort to relinquish the 7.8% unemployment.
The Fed said last month it will buy $45 billion a month of Treasury securities starting in January, expanding its asset- purchase program to $85 billion monthly. The central bank may end bond purchases sometime in 2013, some policy makers said, according to minutes of the Dec. 11- Dec. 12 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Jan. 3.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- Fixed mortgage rates increased this week following positive economic news.
- Chicago Fed's national-activity index points to slower economic growth.
- Weekly Jobless Claims Keep Up Steady Move Lower.
- Sales of existing homes decline 1% in December. US New Home Sales Fall 7.3%.
- Store sales in the U.S. declined slightly this week.
- Leading Indicators Rise 0.5%, Top Forecasts.
- Fed 's balance sheet soars to $3.0 trillion after recent bond buying.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Currency War |
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