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Week 51 - 2013
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Week 51 -2013 | From Dec. 16 to Dec. 20, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Dec. 16
Tue - Dec. 17
Wed - Dec. 18
Thu - Dec. 19
Fri - Dec. 20
         
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Economic Data for Week 51-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 51-2013 LAST
Mon Empire Estate Mfg Index The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed "conditions were flat for New York manufacturers," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Monday as the general business conditions index fell to positive 0.98 in December 2013 from negative 2.21 in November 2013.
0.98
Chart View Manufacturing The general business-conditions index rose three points but, at 1.0, indicated that activity “changed little” over the month, according to the monthly survey that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released today.
Neutral View
Mon Productivy and Costs

U.S. workers boosted their productivity from July 2013 through September 2013 at the fastest pace since the end of 2009, adding to signs of stronger growth.

3.0%
Chart View Business Activity The Labor Department says productivity increased at a 3% annual rate in the third quarter. That's up from an initial estimate of 1.9% and much stronger than the 1.8% rate from April 2013 through June 2013.
Positive View
Mon Treasury Intal. Capital

Foreign demand for US long-term securities, which had slowed through mid-year on expectations for FOMC tapering, picked back up for a second month in October 2013, showing a net inflow of $35.4 billion following an upwardly revised inflow of $31.3 billion in September 2013.

$35.4B
Chart View Balance of Payments Foreign demand for Treasuries was especially strong in both months as was demand for US equities. Limiting the inflow was continued US demand for foreign long-term securities as US accounts were net buyers of $19.2 billion following September's very heavy net buying of $31.7 billion.
Positive View
Mon Industrial Production

Industrial production in the United States last month grew at its fastest pace in a year with output increasing past a pre-recession peak, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

1.1%
Chart View Manufacturing This measure of the total output at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities increased 1.1% in November 2013 from October 2013, while the October figure was revised upward to a 0.1% hike from a first reported 0.1% drop. The gain in November 2013 was the largest since November 2012.
Positive View
Tue FOMC Meeting Begins The highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ends in early afternoon with a statement and then a press conference from outgoing Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates Recent upbeat U.S. economic data and last week’s U.S. government budget deal suggest the FOMC will move up its timeline for implementing a tapering of its monthly bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing—possibly as early as today.
Neutral View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index Same-store sales shot up 4.8% in the December 14 week, boosted by an easy comparison with weakness in the prior week and what ICSC-Goldman describes as accelerated holiday-gift completion which ended the week at two thirds for a 14% year-on-year rise from the same time last year
2.0%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Despite the strength in the latest week, the year-on-year pace for same-store sales remains modest, at only plus 2.0%.
Positive View
Tue Consumer Price Index Consumer price inflation remains soft just ahead of the Fed's policy decision tomorrow. Headline CPI inflation in November 2013 posted a flat reading after dipping 0.1% in October 2013.
0.0%
M/M
Chart View Inflation The CPI for November 2013 excluding food and energy firmed to 0.2%, following a rise of 0.1% the prior month.
Neutral View
Thu Current Account The nation's current account deficit narrowed slightly in the third quarter, to $94.8 billion from a downward revised $96.6 billion in the second quarter.
$-94.8B
Chart View Balance of Payments The improvement is led by a $4.0 billion increase in the surplus on income to $60.0 billion. Also helping was a narrowing in the deficit on unilateral transfers, down $388 million to $34.1 billion, and an increase in the trade surplus for services, up $278 million to $57.9 billion.
Positive View
Tue Johnson Redbook Redbook's same-store sales tally has been weak the last two weeks, at a year-on-year plus 2.9% in the December 14 week following an unusually low plus 2.6% in the prior week. Redbook cites heavy weather in the Northeast as a negative factor in the latest week.
2.9%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories The most positive development, Redbook said, was a pick-up in seasonal business as falling temperatures and heavy snowstorms in the Midwest and Northeast the previous week stimulated pent-up demand for winter apparel and other cold weather items.
Positive View
Tue Housing Market Index

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose more-than-expected in December 2013, industry data showed on Tuesday.

58
Level
Chart View Real Estate In a report, NAHB said that its Housing Market Index increased to 58.0 this month from 54.0 in November, beating estimates for a rise to 55.0. A level above 50.0 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for home mortgages fell last week, dropping to a multi-year low, an industry group said on Wednesday.
-5.5%
Chart View Real Estate The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 5.5% to 374.6 in the week ended December 13.
Negative View
Wed Housing Starts Housing starts grew at an annual pace of 1.09 million, up nearly 30% from a year ago. The issuance of building permits was also strong, up 7%.
1091K
Chart View Real Estate Housing starts surged in November-and this time it was not just the multifamily component. Housing starts in November 2013 jumped 22.7% after rising 1.8% in October 2013.
Positive View
Wed Building Permits Building Permits declined in November 2013 but after a strong October 2013. This time strength is in the single-family component.
1007K
Chart View Real Estate Building Permits decreased 3.1% in November 2013 after gaining 6.7% the month before. The 1.007 million pace was up 7.9% on the year.
Negative View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Heavy demand from refineries helped pull down oil inventories by 2.9 million barrels in the December 13 week to 372.3 million.
-2.9M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Refineries operated at a very strong 91.5% of capacity in the week and sharply increased gasoline production which contributed to a 1.3 million barrel build in gasoline inventories.
Neutral View
Wed FOMC Meeting Announcement The Fed announced taper to start in January in measured steps--a $10 billion reduction split between Treasuries and MBSs and future moves still data dependent. The Fed left policy rates unchanged at 0.25%.
0.25%
Chart View Interest Rates The reduction in QE purchases is modest. Notably, the Fed emphasized that the fed funds rate likely will remain low for quite some time after QE ends-although the context was in terms of continuing beyond when the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.
Positive View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims For the week ended December 21, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims, a rough gauge of weekly layoffs, fell to 338,000 from an upwardly revised 380,000 (from an original estimate of 379,000) in the week prior, which was the highest number of claims since March.
379K
Chart View Employment Economists expected claims to drop to 345,000. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure of jobless trends than the weekly figure, increased by 4,250 to 348,000.
Negative View
Thu Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years, the year-on-year rate is in contraction, at minus 1.2%. And for a second month in a row, all regions show monthly declines led once again by the West where November 2013 sales fell 8.5%.

-4.3%
Chart View Real Estate Demand for existing homes is definitely down as sales fell a sharp 4.3% to a 4.900 million annual rate in November 2013 for a 4th straight month of disappointment
Negative View
Thu Philadelphia Fed Survey

The Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity covering the regional factory sector increased to 7.0 in December 2013, little changed from 6.5 in November which was down sharply from 19.8 in October 2013.

7.0
Level
Chart View Business Activity

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected the latest index to increase to a faster 8.5. Readings under zero denote contraction, and above-zero readings denote expansion.

Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Natural gas in storage fell 285 billion cubic feet to 3,248 bcf in the December 13 week. The week's draw is very large and above expectations for about 260 bcf.
-285
bcf
Chart View Commodity Weekly Change Prior -81 bcf and Actual -285 bcf.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet

For the December 18 week, the Fed balance sheet increased $14.1 billion after jumping $61.3 billion the prior week.

$14.1
Billions

Chart View Government Holdings of Treasuries increased $2.2 billion while mortgage-backed securities rose $2.4 billion.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change Prior $1.7 B Prior Revised $19.9 B Actual $17.5 B
$17.5B
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates

Average U.S. rates for fixed mortgages rose slightly this week but remained near historically low levels.

4.47%
Chart View Interest Rates Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday the rate on the 30-year loan increased to 4.47% from 4.42% last week. The average on the 15-year fixed loan rose to 3.51% from 3.43%.
Positive View
Fri Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The government's main growth gauge—gross domestic product—grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the third quarter, marking only the second time since the recovery began in 2009 that the output of goods and services expanded above 4%. Friday's report showed consumer spending—a key driver of the economy—grew at a 2% annual rate in the summer, instead of the previously estimated 1.4%.
4.1%
View Chart Growth Real GDP was revised up to 4.1% annualized, compared to the 3.6% second estimate and 2.5% in the second quarter. The upward revision was largely due stronger PCEs growth, a boost in the estimate for intellectual property, slightly higher exports, and slightly lower imports.
Positive View
Fri Corporate Profits Corporate profits in the third quarter were revised to $1.869 trillion versus the initial estimate of $1.872 trillion, up from $1.821 trillion the prior quarter. Profits in the third quarter increased an annualized 10.8%, following a gain of 8.5% in the second quarter.
5.6%
View Chart Growth Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 5.6% versus 5.3% in the second quarter.
Positive View
     
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WEEK 51-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 51-2013
01. Interest Rates
2
1
Positive View
 
02. Growth
2
Positive View
 
03. Inflation
1
Neutral View
 
04. Employment
1
Negative View
 
05. Real Estate
2
3
Negative View
 
06. Manufacturing
1
1
Positive View
 
07. Consumer
Non Available
 
08. Sales & Inventories
2
Positive View
 
09. Business Activity
1
1
Neutral View
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
2
Positive View
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 51-2013
12
5
5
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 51 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 51-2013
12
5
7
Positive View
Week 51, 2013 has been rated positive.
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 51-2013 ENDING DEC. 20
Reports Commentary

A survey by the National Association of Home Builders released Tuesday showed builders reporting the best sales conditions for single family homes in eight years.

The recovery in the housing market has been one of the key areas of strength in the U.S. economy. Years of low levels of home building since the bursting of the housing bubble have left the nation with a tight supply of new homes for sale.

A strong improvement in home prices and a drop in unemployment and home foreclosures have combined to drive a rebound in demand for homes.

Mortgage rates have been rising steadily for months since hitting a record low in the spring. That has also increased demand as potential buyers look to make a purchase before rates go higher

GDP

Other recent data suggest Americans have kept shopping, even in the face of budget turmoil in Washington that temporarily darkened their mood. Meanwhile, home builders are stepping up construction, manufacturers have ramped up production and hiring continues at a steady pace. As a result, many economists expect annualized growth in the second half of this year of about 3%, higher than the 1.8% pace in the first half.

While there is still reason for caution, since a large chunk of the GDP growth was the result of companies piling up goods for inventory, the larger picture is of an economy finally firing on more cylinders.

The price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose, sending the yield down to 2.89%. The yield this week approached 3% after brushing past it briefly this summer. Investors watch the 10-year yield as a gauge of the health of the U.S. economy.

The question now: Is the economy genuinely lifting off, with recent job growth fueling a healthier cycle of higher consumer and business spending-and in turn more job growth? Or is the recent burst of momentum bound to evaporate, as it has repeatedly throughout the recovery?

The Federal Reserve cautiously concurs with the notion of a sustainable growth track. The GDP report came two days after the Fed announced the economy was strong enough for it to start gradually paring its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, a move it had avoided after earlier policy meetings because of concerns about growth.

The latest momentum is coming largely from consumers, whose spending provides more than two-thirds of economic demand in the U.S. The GDP report shows households in the third quarter spent more across the board, including on durable goods such as refrigerators, daily items such as groceries, and services such as health care.

       
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