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Week 08 -2013 | From Feb. 18 to Feb. 22, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 08-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 08-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
Housing Market Index |
The index ticked down to 46 in February from 47 in January. The index has barely moved in recent months after substantial gains in much of 2012. |
46
Level
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Real Estate |
A gauge of confidence among homebuilders declined in February, the first weakening since April, due, in part, to ongoing headwinds from economic uncertainty and strict lending standards, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Tuesday. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, was 1.7% lower in the week ended February 15. |
-1.7%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell for a second straight week as both refinancing and loan requests for new mortgages eased last week, an industry group said on Wednesday. |
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Wed |
ICSC Goldman Index |
The ICSC Report for week 08 notes that Valentine's Day was a positive in the week but was offset by rising gasoline prices, this year's increase in payroll taxes, and the slower pace of this year's tax refunds. |
1.8%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The ICSC-Goldman store sales index was up +1.8% year over year last week, worse than the +2.1% Y/Y the week prior. The week-to-week same-store measure jumped 2.7%. |
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Wed |
Housing Starts |
Housing starts dropped 8.5% last month to a 890,000-unit annual rate, pulled down by a sharp drop in the volatile multi-family unit category, the Commerce Department said. |
890K |
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Real Estate |
U.S. homebuilders began work at a slower pace in January than in December, though activity was the third-highest since 2008. The steady pace of construction is a sign of continued strengthening in residential real estate. |
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Wed |
Building Permits |
U.S. residential construction fell in January but a jump in permits for future home building to a 4-1/2 year high offered hope the housing market recovery remains on track. |
925K |
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Real Estate |
Housing permits advanced 1.8% to an annual pace of 925,000 units. And in an encouraging sign for the rest of the year, applications for building permits, a sign of future construction, rose to an annual rate of 925,000 in January. |
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Wed |
Producer Price Index |
Wholesale prices rose for the first time in four months in January 2013 as rising food costs offset weak gasoline prices. However, sluggish economic growth should keep price pressures muted. The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted PPI increased 0.2% last month after slipping 0.3% in December 2012. |
0.2%
M/M
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Inflation |
For the overall PPI,(seasonally adjusted), the year-ago rate in stood at 1.4%, compared to 1.3% the prior month. The increase in prices received by farms, factories and refineries was below the 0.4% gain economists had expected. Details of the wholesale inflation report offered no sign of price pressures. |
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Wed |
Johson Redbook |
The Redbook store sales index was +3.1% year over year last week, better than the +2.4% Y/Y the week prior and the highest rate since the Black Friday week and nearly double ICSC-Goldman's plus 1.8% rate released earlier this morning. |
3.1%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook and ICSC-Goldman are going in different directions with Redbook reporting rising same-store sales growth and ICSC-Goldman reporting slowing growth. |
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Wed |
FOMC Minutes for Meeting Jan. 29 |
Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided on the future of the central bank's bond buying program, according to minutes of the January 29, 2013 meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released Wednesday. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Fed officials announced on January 30th that they would continue to buy mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month, a policy popularly known as quantitative easing. U.S. stock losses accelerate after Fed minutes; Dow off 100 points. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. |
362K |
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Employment |
More Americans than expected filed new claims for jobless aid last week and consumer prices were slightly higher in January 2013, supporting the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain its very accommodative monetary policy stance. |
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Thu |
Consumer Price Index |
Consumer prices were flat for a second consecutive month in January 2013 though they rose 0.3% excluding food and energy. The data comes amid growing signs of divisions at the Federal Reserve over its bond buying program aimed to stimulate the sluggish economic recovery. |
0.0% |
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Inflation |
Last month, the consumer price index was held back by weak gasoline prices and food prices, which were unchanged after rising over the past months, the Labor Department said. However, consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% - the largest gain since May 2011. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.1% in December 2012. |
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Thu |
Existing Home Sales |
The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 0.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million units |
4.92M |
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Real Estate |
U.S. home resales edged higher in January and left the supply of homes at its lowest level in 13 years, a sign that steam is gathering in the housing market. Leading economic indicators gained modeslty in January. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index dropped to minus 12.5 from minus 5.8 in January, coming in far below economists' expectations for positive 1.0. It was the lowest level since June of last year. |
-12.5
Level
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Business Activity |
Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly contracted in February 2013 for the second month in a row, falling to the lowest level in eight months as new orders tumbled, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed on Thursday. |
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Thu |
Leading Indicators |
U.S. leading economic indicators a gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose modestly in January 2013, pointing to steady growth in the months ahead. |
0.2% |
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Business Activity |
The Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% to 94.1 last month after advancing 0.5% in December 2012. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The EIA natural gas inventories for February 15 decreased by 127 BCF from a prior fall of 157 BCF; lower than forecasts of -124 BCF. |
-127
bcf
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 127 billion cubic feet in the February 15 week to 2,400 bcf. |
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Thu |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
Oil prices tanked 2.5% on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. stockpiles jumped last week. |
4.1M
Barrels
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Commodity |
The EIA said that crude oil inventories surged by 4.14 million barrels to 376.4m last week, the highest level since July last year. The consensus estimate was for a gain of just 2.0 million barrels. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday increased to $3.097 trillion from $3.076 trillion a week earlier, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
$20.9B |
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Government |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion for the fifth week in a row as the central bank continued with its efforts to spur the economy through bond purchases. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $14.3 Billions. |
$14.3B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan increased to 3.56% from 3.53% last week. That's still near the 3.31% reached in November 2012, which was the lowest on record dating to 1971.
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3.56% |
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Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage stayed at 2.77% for a third straight week. The record low is 2.63%. |
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| WEEK 08-2013 ENDING FEB. 22 |
Reports Commentary
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting released Wednesday reveal that many Fed officials are worried about the costs and risks arising from the $85 billion per-month asset purchase program. And they all seem to have their own ideas on how to proceed.
The Fed said it would review its asset purchases at the March meeting. U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may have to slow or stop buying assets before seeing a pickup in hiring.
Housing Market
Despite February's decline, sentiment is up 64% from a year earlier, with builders encouraged by a strengthening housing market that is benefitting from persistently low interest rates and pent-up demand. However, the builders' sentiment index remains below a key reading of 50 - the point at which more builders see sales conditions as good than poor.
The nation's inventory of existing homes for sale, which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 4.9% from December to 1.74 million, the lowest level since December 1999.
A sharp drop in inventories over the last year has given developers more incentive to build homes. Home building is expected to boost the economy more in 2013 than it did last year. Inventories were down 25.3% from January 2012.
Economics
A raft of U.S. economic data on Thursday from claims for jobless aid to factory activity and consumer prices pointed to a still tepid recovery and supported the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary stimulus.
The Fed is currently buying $85 billion in bonds per month and has said it would keep up purchases until the labor market outlook improves substantially, although officials are increasingly divided over the wisdom of that course.
In the 12 months through January, consumer prices rose 1.6%, the smallest gain since July. That suggested there was little inflation pressure to worry the Fed.
Manufacturing
News on the manufacturing sector, which has supported the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, was downbeat.
The Philadelphia Fed's business activity index dropped to minus 12.5 in February, the lowest level since June. The index, which measures factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region, had fallen to minus 5.8 in January.
A reading below zero indicates contraction in the region's manufacturing sector. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.
30 Year Rate
The average U.S. rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose this week but remained near historic lows. Low mortgage rates have helped support the slowly recovering housing market.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- Fed Officials Divided on Future of QE.
- PPI Tame. U.S. consumer prices unchanged in January.
- Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000.
- Housing Starts Off, but Permits Grow.
- Philadelphia Fed Drops More Than Expected.
- Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly contracted in February 2013.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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China biggest U.S. Bond Holder |
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