Economic Data for Week 25-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 25-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Empire Estate Mfg Index |
The New York Fed's "Empire State" manufacturing index gained to 7.84 in June 2013 from minus 1.43 in May 2013, exceeding estimates for zero. A reading above zero indicates expansion. However, the forward-looking new orders index and employment reading weakened. |
7.84
Level |
|
 |
Manufacturing |
U.S. stock index futures held their sharp gains across the board Monday, looking to recover after dropping in the previous week, after the Empire Estate Mfg Index showed growth in the New York state manufacturing sector picked back up in June 2013 and ahead of the Fed's meeting. |
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|
Mon |
Housing Market Index |
A plus 50 reading indicates that home builders, as a group, are more optimistic than pessimistic. And above 50 are two of the report's three components led by the six-month outlook, at a very upbeat 61, followed by current sales which are very strong at 52. |
52
Level
|
|
|
Real Estate |
Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes showed strong continued improvement in the second quarter of 2013 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) latest 52 + Housing Market Index (HMI). |
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|
Tue |
FOMC Meeting Begins |
The characterization of the economy did not change-economic activity has been expanding at a "moderate pace." There was only modest change in evaluation of the labor market-some improvement but still elevated unemployment. However, more attention was called to inflation running further below target. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Guidance is unchanged based on general triggers of 6.5% unemployment and 2.5% inflation expectations. Wording is unchanged on guidance bias being neutral between upward or downward on potential tapering down the road. QE for now continues at $85 billion per month. There were two dissents. |
|
|
Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 2.5% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as sales performance was mixed by store segment. |
2.5%
W/W
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
During the past week, department, electronics and drug store sales posted notable improvement, but there were pockets of notable weakness too among dollar stores and wholesale clubs. |
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|
Tue |
Consumer Price Index |
CPI inflation was essentially at expectations, showing only modest inflation pressures. The consumer price index for May 2013 made only a partial rebound at the headline level, rising 0.1% after falling 0.4% in April 2014. |
0.1%
M/M |
|
|
Inflation |
The May 2013 number posted slightly lower than market expectations for a rise of 0.2%. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-rose 0.2% versus 0.1% in April 2013. The consensus called for a 0.2% increase. |
|
|
Tue |
Housing Starts |
Housing starts in May 2013 rebounded a monthly 6.8% after plunging 14.8% in April 2013. The May 2013 starts annualized level of 0.914 million units came in somewhat below analysts' forecast for 0.955 million units and was up 28.6% on a year-ago basis. |
914K |
|
|
Real Estate |
The gain in starts was led by a monthly 21.6% jump in the multifamily component after a 32.2% fall in April 2013. The single-family component rose 0.3%, following a 4.2% decrease in April 2013. |
|
|
Tue |
Building Permits |
Permits dipped after a very strong April 2013. Permits eased 3.1% in May 2013 after jumping 12.9% the month before. |
974K |
|
|
Real Estate |
May's annualized pace of 0.974 million units was up 20.8% on a year-ago basis. Expectations were for 0.973 million units for May 2013 permits. |
|
|
Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
National chain store sales edged down 0.4% in the first two weeks of June from May 2013, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator. The index's fall compared with a flat sales target. Sales for the week ended June 15 rose 2.9% year-over-year.
|
2.9%
W/W
|
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 2.9% from last year, compared with a 3.3% targeted gain. Redbook said Father's Day promotions brought people into stores and produced positive spill-over business in other product areas.
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|
|
Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The rise in rates appeared to hold back homebuyers as MBA's seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases - a leading indicator of home sales - fell 3%. |
-3.0%
W/W
|
|
|
Real Estate |
The overall index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, declined 3.3%. |
|
|
Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
|
|
Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
|
|
Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
A rise in imports just barely offset a dip in domestic production and a rise in refinery inputs to make for a small 0.3 million barrel build in commercial oil inventories to 394.1 million in the June 14 week. |
0.3M
Barrels
|
|
|
Commodity |
Product inventories show slight builds with gasoline up 0.2 million barrels and distillates up 0.5 million. Oil, at $98.50, is slightly lower. |
|
|
Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
The Fed continued to emphasize that it will take into account ongoing economic conditions when deciding to remove easy policy. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.
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|
Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
Equities dipped somewhat on the Fed's FOMC statement. However, it may have been an early reaction rather than to detail. Policy rates are unchanged with the fed funds target at zero to 0.25%.
|
0.25% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2%.
|
|
|
Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
This Week 25, Initial jobless claims hit 354,000. Last week 24 had declined to 334,000 claims. Jobless Cliams jumped 18,000 week 25 ending 21 june 2013. |
354K |
|
|
Employment |
The 4-week moving average was 348,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 345,750. |
|
|
Thu |
Existing Home Sales |
The home resale market is surging right, up 4.2% to an annual sales rate of 5.18 million which is the highest since the home stimulus credits of late 2009. |
5.18M Level |
|
|
Real Estate |
The gain is very convincing and is centered in the key single-family home category which is up 5.0% in the May 2013 report on top of a 1.25 gain in April 2013. |
|
|
Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Sentiment seems to be surging in the Northeast manufacturing sector based on today's headline from the Philly Fed for June 2013 hich mirrors the gain seen on Monday in the Empire State report. Both reports show big gains for the headline index that contrast, at least mostly, with weakness in underlying details.
|
12.5
Level |
|
|
Business Activity |
The Philly Fed index surged to 12.5 from last month's -5.2 reading. Economists were only expecting a rise to -2.0. But, like the Empire State report, this is not a composite, just a single reading on a single subjective question regarding month-to-month general activity. |
|
|
Thu |
Leading Indicators |
The index of U.S. leading indicators rose less than projected in May 2013, a sign the world's largest economy may take time to accelerate.
|
0.1% M/M |
|
|
Business Activity |
The index of leading economic indicators inched only 0.1% higher in May 2013 with strength confined entirely to the financial components: interest rates, the stock market, and credit activity. |
|
|
Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas in storage rose 91 billion cubic feet in the June 14 week to 2,438 bcf. An injection of 90 bcf was expected. |
91
bcf |
|
|
Commodity |
Natural Gas pushed higher through 3.940/950 resistance & did make it above 3.970 but failed just below resistance at 4.000. We are very overbought short term now. |
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|
Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew in the latest week on larger holdings of U.S. Treasuries, Fed data released on Thursday showed. This week $59.7B from $10.7B last week. |
$59.7
Billions
|
|
|
Government |
For the June 19 week, Fed assets surged $59.7 billion after rising $10.7 billion the week before. The jump was led by holdings of mortgage-backed securities which gained $44.0 billion. Treasuries rose $12.6 billion. |
|
|
Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $11.2 Billions from $21.6 Billions revised to $21.2 Billions. |
$11.2
Billions |
|
|
Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
|
|
Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.93% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 20, 2013, down from last week when it averaged 3.98%. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.66%. |
3.93% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.04% with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.10%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.95%. |
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