Bonds

June was the worst month for bonds in 50 years, as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) surged to 2.7%. And as much as that move wreaked havoc in stock and bond portfolios, the latest housing data seems to show it was more of a hitch than a ditch, as existing home sales slipped just 1.2% from the month before.
So far, with stocks setting fresh record highs daily, and housing proving its ability to handle rising rates, it begs the question, when will increased borrowing costs really begin to take bite?

When we get to about a 3% yield on a 10-year Treasury, then we're going to start to see some problems; problems for the stock market and also problems for the economy,"

The funny thing is that the economic news was very good. Not only is manufacturing perking up in the States, but also in Europe. Granted China's numbers continue to slip, but that just speeds up the time table for their previously promised stimulus programs.

S&P 500

Disappointing earnings and weaker-than-expected housing data didn't stop the S&P 500 from setting a third closing high Monday Jul 22. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales slipped 1.2% in June to an annual rate of 5.08 million. Expectations had been for a rate of 5.25 million units. Nevertheless, the report was the second best since November 2009.

The consolidation period...1700 is proving to be formidable resistance for stocks.

It is hard to sell stocks when the Durable Goods report showed strength. And Jobless Claims continue to be under 350K, which bodes well for future employment gains.

Most interesting is that bonds continue to lose money leading to tremendous withdrawals from bond funds. Right now most of that money is being parked in money market funds. In time it will rotate to the stock market creating the next leg higher.

With the S&P 500 closing at 1,690.25 on Thursday, J.P. Morgan's new target implies an advance of 5% for the rest of the year, rather than the 1.5% gain from 1,690.25 implied by the bank's earlier target of 1,715.

Europe

With both US and Europe expected to see better growth in 2H, we believe the Street will be in a position to raise 2014E EPS. We are raising 2014E EPS to $120 (vs $117) and also raising our YE 2013E S&P 500 Target to 1775 (up 3.5% vs prior 1715), said the note, put out by Thomas J. Lee, Joseph Abboud and Katherine C. Khor from J.P. Morgan's North American Equity Research division.

Housing

They swarmed the distressed housing market, buying thousands of foreclosed properties and pushing prices higher faster than anyone expected. Now investors are pulling back, dissuaded by the higher prices they themselves brought about.

First-time homebuyers could say the same. Usually about 40 to 45% of the market, they made up just 29% of buyers in June, according to the Realtors. A lack of supply has made the market far too competitive for these buyers, who usually need financing and have smaller down payments.

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