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Week 48 - 2013
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Week 48 -2013 | From Nov. 25 to Nov. 29, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Nov. 25
Tue - Nov. 26
Wed - Nov. 27
Thu - Nov. 28
Fri - Nov. 29
         
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Economic Data for Week 48-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 48-2013 LAST
Mon Pending Home Sales Index The number of contracts Americans signed to buy previously-owned homes unexpectedly fell in October for a fifth consecutive month amid higher borrowing costs that are denting the real-estate recovery.
-0.6%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate The gauge of pending home sales decreased 0.6% after a 4.6% drop in September 2013, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median projection in a survey of economists called for a 1% gain in the index from the month before.
Negative View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales results for the November 23 week are cloudy. Week-to-week growth surged 2.6% without much explanation while the year-on-year rate fell a sizable 7 tenths to only plus 2.1%, and again without much explanation
2.1%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Trends in this report are flat going into Black Friday which of course will make or break November 2013.
Positive View
Tue Housing Starts The Commerce Department says it will now release information on how quickly builders started and completed homes in October and September on Dec. 18, instead of on Tuesday.
N/A
Chart View Real Estate The October housing starts report was originally scheduled for release on Nov. 19, but was rescheduled for Nov. 26 after the government reopened. The release of the September report was initially scheduled for Oct. 17 and has also been rescheduled twice.
Non Available
Tue Building Permits Permits increased 5.2% in September 2013 following a decline of 2.9% in August. The 0.974 million pace was up 5.8% on the year.
6.2%
Chart View Real Estate Permits jumped 6.2% in October 2013 after gaining 5.25 the month before. The 1.034 million pace was up 13.9% on the year.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook Redbook continues to report moderate acceleration going into the Black Friday week, at a same-store year-on-year rate of plus 3.8% in the November 23 week vs 3.5% and 3.3% rates in the prior two weeks.
3.8%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Like week-to-week, day-to-day sales were building through the latest week in what further points to momentum for the holiday kickoff. Redbook notes that an earlier Hanukkah is helping to intensify sales this year. ICSC-Goldman, posted earlier this morning, shows a flatter rate of sales change going into Black Friday.
Positive View
Tue FHFA House Price Index The FHFA home price index rose 0.3% in September 2013, slightly missing expectations of 0.4%.
Last month's print was revised up from 0.3% to 0.4%.
0.3%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate The index was up 2.00% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, meeting analyst expectations but down from the prior reading of 2.10%
Positive View
Tue S&P Case-Shiller Index Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas jumped 13.3% in September 2013 from a year earlier, the best gain since February 2006.
1.0%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate House prices have largely been driven by a supply squeeze as a glut of foreclosed properties clears. But the combination of rising prices and higher mortgage rates means some potential buyers are being priced out of the market.
Positive View
Tue Consumer Confidence The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence fell to 70.4 this month from 72.4 in October 2013.
70.4
Chart View Consumer U.S. consumers' confidence in the economy fell in November 2013 to the lowest level in seven months, dragged down by greater concerns about hiring and pay in the coming months.
Negative View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for U.S. home loans dipped in the latest week, dropping for a fourth straight week, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
-0.3%
Chart View Real Estate The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 0.3% in the week ended Nov. 22.
Negative View
Wed Bank Reserve Settlement Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.
N/A
Chart View Banking System Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday.
Neutral View
Wed Durable Goods Orders Orders for durable goods dropped in October 2013, pointing to a slowdown in U.S. business investment that will curb U.S. economic growth this quarter.
-2.0%
Chart View Manufacturing Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years decreased 2% after a 4.1% gain in September 2013. Other data, including a drop in jobless claims and unexpected increases in consumer sentiment and leading indicators, indicate any cooling in the expansion will be short-lived.
Negative View
Wed Jobless/Initial Claims The number of jobless claims in the week ended Nov. 23 unexpectedly declined by 10,000 to 316,000, the fewest in two months, according to figures from the Labor Department. The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed projected an increase to 330,000.
316K
Chart View Employment Applications reflect weekly firings and typically wane before employment growth accelerates.
The economy added a more-than-forecast 204,000 jobs in October, according to figures from the Labor Department issued Nov. 8.
Positive View
Wed Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index After hitting +0.56 in February 2013, the index bounced back into negative territory for the next five months. August 2013 and September 2013 were positive, but October 2013 fell back to -.18.
-0.18%
Chart View Growth The three-month moving average was +0.06, meaning the economy is growing ever-so-slightly above trend. A reading of -0.7 usually indicates that a recession has started.
Negative View
Wed Chicago PMI Monthly growth in composite activity in Chicago remains exceptionally strong, at 63.0 for this month's reading vs an even stronger 65.9 in October.
63.0
Chart View Manufacturing Strength is centered where it should be, in new orders which are at a robust 68.8. The prior reading, at 74.3, was a 9 year high. Production slowed in the month but remains very strong at 64.3 vs 71.1.
Positive View
Wed Consumer Sentiment Confidence among U.S. consumers rose last week to the highest level since early October 2013 as tensions in Washington calmed and hiring improved.
75.1
Chart View Consumer Households became less pessimistic about the state of their finances and the economy as the government's partial shutdown last month receded from memories. The reading was the best for any pre-Thanksgiving week since 2007.
Positive View
Wed Leading Indicators The leading economic index for the U.S. rose 0.7% in August 2013 to 96.6, the Conference Board said Thursday. That was slightly higher than the 0.6% increase expected by economists.
0.2%
Chart View Business Actvity The latest reading points to more pep in the pace of economic activity in the near term. The coincident index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.2% in August 2013, while the lagging index advanced by 0.3%. In July 2013, the increase in the index was revised down a notch to 0.5%.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Oil futures pared losses on Wednesday following weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that crude supplies climbed by 3 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 22.
3.0M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Analysts polled by Platts were looking for a decline of 1.5 million barrels but the American Petroleum Institute had reported a much bigger 6.9 million-barrel increase. Gasoline supplies rose by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell 1.7 million barrels, the EIA said.
Neutral View
Thu Thanksgiving  
N/A
  U.S. Market Holidays  
Non Available
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates For the week ending Nov. 27, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 4.22% to an average of 4.29%. During the same time last year, mortgage rates averaged 3.32%, a significant difference. Homeowners may be feeling the sting of higher mortgage rates and as a result, fewer borrowers are applying for home loans.
4.29%
Chart View Interest Rates The interest rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also rose during the same week, though only slightly. For the week ending Nov. 27, the average rate rose from 3.27% to 3.30%.
Positive View
Fri Fed Balance Sheet For the November 27 week, the Fed balance sheet gained $19.3 billion after slipping $0.8 billion the prior week.
$19.3B
Chart View Government Holdings of Treasuries rose $12.7 billion and mortgage-backed securities increased $6.0 billion. Total assets for the November 27 week were $3.926 trillion.
Neutral View
Fri M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $-4.0 Billions from $-24.9 Billions revised to $-24.9 Billions.
$-4.0B
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
     
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WEEK 48-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 48-2013
01. Interest Rates
1
Positive View
 
02. Growth
1
Negative View
 
03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
1
Positive View
 
05. Real Estate
3
3
Neutral View
 
06. Manufacturing
1
1
Neutral View
 
07. Consumer
1
1
Neutral View
 
08. Sales & Inventories
2
Positive View
 
09. Business Activity
1
Positive View
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
1
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 48-2013
9
6
3
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 48 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 48-2013
9
6
5
Positive View
Week 48, 2013 has been rated ...
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 48-2013 ENDING MAY. 31
Reports Commentary

Permits for future home construction rose to their highest point in nearly five and a half years in October and prices for single-family homes posted big gains in September, suggesting that the run-up in mortgage interest rates since May has not derailed the housing recovery.

While demand for housing remains as strong as ever, credit is tight, flood insurance rates are on the rise, mortgage rates are elevated and income growth has not kept pace with price growth.

Mortage Rates

Mortgage rates have risen sharply since early May as the credit markets anticipated that the Federal Reserve would start scaling back on its monthly $85 billion purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities this year, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbing nearly a full percentage point.

The 30-year rate hit 4.49 percent in September, the highest since July 2011, according to the mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac. But rates have been retreating, averaging 4.19 percent last month, as expectations grew that the Fed might wait until early next year to taper its stimulus campaign.

Home prices have enjoyed a strong rebound during the past year, as improving sales and a drop in foreclosures have removed two major drags on the market. And while mortgage rates have been rising lately, they are still at historically low levels.
The rebound in home prices means that fewer homeowners are underwater. Since they no longer owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, it's easier for them to sell their existing home and buy a new one, which in itself helps the market.

Confidence

Less optimism among Americans could slow the holiday shopping season and weigh on economic growth. Consumer spending drives 70 percent of economic activity.

But spending patterns don't always closely follow measures of confidence. Americans sometimes shop more even when they say they are less optimistic.

That's what happened last month. Despite a sharp fall in confidence in October, consumers spent 0.4 percent more at retail stores and restaurants than in September.

Strong auto sales accounted for about half the gain. Restaurants also reported a healthy increase in spending. Americans also spent more on furniture, electronics and clothing. There were some signs of caution: sales at grocery stores were flat and department stores reported only slightly higher sales.

At the same time, improvements in the labor market are helping underpin confidence. The number of job openings in September rose to a more than five-year high, according to Labor Department figures released last week. Payroll gains have averaged 186,300 a month so far this year, up from 182,750 in 2012.

Rising home prices are also propping up balance sheets for some Americans, leaving them with greater means to spend. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities gained 13.3 percent in September from a year earlier, the most since 2006, a report showed this week. Prices nationwide jumped 11.2 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2012, the report said.

       
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