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Week 24 - 2013
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Week 24 -2013 | From Jun. 10 to Jun. 14, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Jun. 10
Tue - Jun. 11
Wed - Jun. 12
Thu - Jun. 13
Fri - Jun. 14
         
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Economic Data for Week 24-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 24-2013 LAST
Mon Non Reports for Our Global Vision There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday.
N/A
No Reports  
Non Available
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.2% year on year for the week that ended on June 8, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, weekly comparable-store sales fell 2.7% as consumers' desire to shop waned, according to ICSC.
2.2%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories The across-the-board weakness was seen in nearly every retail category and was most likely due to the impact of considerable precipitation across parts of the country.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 2.8% in the first week of June 2013. Month-to-date, June was up 2.8% compared to June of last year (relative to a revised target of 3.3% gain).
2.8%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Month-over-month showed a 0.5% drop (compared to a flat target). June is a five-week month on the retail calendar ending on July 6th.
Positive View
Tue Wholesale Trade Wholesale trade sales at constant prices increased by 7.2% year-on-year (Y/Y) in April 2013 compared with a revised 0.5% (Y/Y) decrease in March 2013. The slower rate of inventory growth brings down the sector's inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.21 vs March's 1.22 which was a recovery high for this reading.
0.2%
M/M
Chart View Sales and Inventories Measured in real terms seasonally adjusted wholesale trade sales increased by 8.8% in April 2013 compared with March 2013 following month-on-month changes of -5.8% in March 2013 and -1.9% in February 2013.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The gauge of refinancing applications rose 5%, while the index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, also increased by 5%.
5.0%
W/W
Chart View Real Estate Another surge in interest rates last week pushed prospective homebuyers to act as demand for applications for mortgages rose for the first time in a month. Even with the more expensive rates, the MBA's seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases rose 4.7%.
Positive View
Wed Bank Reserve Settlement Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.
N/A
Chart View Banking System Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday.
Neutral View
Wed EIA Crude Oil Crude oil futures trimmed gains on Wednesday, coming off the highest levels of the session following the release of a U.S. government report showing that oil supplies rose unexpectedly last week.
2.5M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended June 7, confounding expectations for a decline of 0.8 million barrels.
Neutral View
Wed Treasury Budget U.S. budget deficit widens $139 billion in May 2013. The government reported Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit widened in May 2013 by $139 billion. But the annual deficit stayed on track to finish below $1 trillion for the first time since 2008.
$-138.7
Billions
Chart View Government Steady economic growth and higher tax rates have boosted the government's tax revenue. At the same time, government spending has barely increased.
Negative View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims There were 334,000 people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week 24 ending June 24, 2013, down 12,000 from the previous week. It was the second significant weekly drop
334K
Chart View Employment New jobless claims dropped more than expected last week, nearing a five-year low and continuing a downward trend this month that bodes well for the labor market.
Positive View
Thu Retail Sales Retail spending jumped in May 2013, helped by consumers hitting dealer showrooms to buy cars. But even stripping out car sales, retail sales were up a healthy 0.3% in May 2013.
0.6%
M/M
Chart View Sales and Inventories The U.S. government report released Thursday showed a 0.6% increase in sales in the month, up from the modest 0.1% rise a month earlier. Much of the gain was due to a 1.9% jump in spending at car dealerships.
Positive View
Thu Import and Export Prices U.S. import and export prices fell for the second consecutive month in May 2013. Import prices fell 0.6% and export prices were down 0.5% from April 2013, the bureau said. From May 2012, import prices for all categories are off 0.8% and export prices dropped 0.2%.
-1.9%
Y/Y
Chart View Inflation The bureau said imports prices for of fuel fell 1.9% April2013 to May 2013, with prices 5.5% lower than May 2012. Non-fuel import prices dropped 0.3% in May 2013 but are 0.9% higher than May 2012.
Positive View
Thu Business Inventories U.S. business inventories rose in April 2013, but with goods taking longer to sell businesses could slow their pace of stock accumulation to prevent an unwanted piling up of merchandise. U.S. Business Inventories up, but sales are weak.
0.3%
M/M
Chart View Sales and Inventories The Commerce Department said on Thursday inventories increased 0.3% after edging down 0.1% in March 2013. The rise doesn't look like it will be giving much of a boost at all to second-quarter GDP, and slowing in inventory accumulation won't be raising demand for labor.
Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a larger-than-expected rise in natural gas supplies on account of mild seasonal weather.
95
bcf
Chart View Commodity Moreover, on a further bearish note, the build was well ahead of the five-year average levels, thereby narrowing the deficit with the benchmark. Natural gas in storage rose 95 billion cubic feet in the June 7 week to 2,347 bcf.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew in the latest week on larger holdings of U.S. Treasuries, Fed data released on Thursday showed. This week $10.7B from $15.1B last week.
$10.7
Billions
Chart View Government The Fed's balance sheet, which is a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system, stood at $3.367 trillion on June 12, compared to $3.357 trillion on June 5.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $21.6 Billions from $16.4 Billions revised to $16.3 Billions.
$21.6
Billions
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year loan increased to 3.98%. That's up from 3.91% last week and the highest since April 2012. The average rate was last at 4% or higher in March 2012.
3.98%
Chart View Interest Rates Fixed U.S. mortgage rates rose for the sixth straight week, putting the average rate on the 30-year loan just shy of 4%. The rate on the 15-year loan advanced to 3.10% from 3.03%. That's also the highest since April 2012.
Positive View
Fri Producer Price Index U.S. wholesale prices jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in May 2013 to mark the first increase in three months, spurred by higher costs for gasoline, eggs and light trucks. Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, so-called core wholesale prices rose a much smaller 0.1%.
0.5%
M/M
Chart View Inflation The PPI inflation rebounded significantly more than expected due to both higher energy and food inflation. The core rate remained soft. Year to Year 1.8% changed in May 2013 from 0.7% April 2013.
Negative View
Fri Current Account The current account deficit widened in Q1-2013 to $106.1 billion. Most of the widening came from a drop in the U.S. surplus on income and an increase in government transfers, the Commerce Department said.
$-106.1
Billions
Chart View Balance of Payments The Commerce Department said the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, fell from a downwardly revised $102.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The current account as a percentage of GDP is up 1 tenth to 2.7%.
Neutral View
Fri Treasury Intal Capital Foreign accounts were net sellers of US long-term securities in April 2013 making for a third consecutive outflow, at a net $37.3 billion following a revised outflow of $13.4 billion in March 2013 and a $13.1 billion outflow in February 2013.
$-37.3B
Chart View Balance of Payments Foreign accounts sold a net $24.8 billion in US securities in April 2013 with selling centered squarely in Treasuries at a net $54.5 billion. Chinese holdings of US Treasuries slipped slightly in the month to $1.27 trillion with Japanese holdings also slightly lower at $1.10 trillion.
Negative View
Fri Industrial Production Industrial production was unchanged in May 2013, the second straight weak monthly report, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
0.0%
M/M
Chart View Manufacturing The flat reading was below economists' forecasts of a 0.1% gain. April's production was revised slightly higher to a drop of 0.4% from the initial estimate of a 0.5% drop. Output at factories alone increased 0.1% in May 2013 after two straight monthly declines.
Neutral View
Fri Consumer Sentiment Consumer confidence in June 2013 eased from a six-year high as progress in the labor market supported Americans views of the economic outlook.
82.7
Level
Chart View Consumer The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment declined to 82.7 in June 2013 from 84.5 the prior month that was the highest since July 2007, a report today showed.
Negative View
     
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WEEK 24-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 24-2013
01. Interest Rates
1
Positive View
 
02. Growth
Non Available
 
03. Inflation
1
1
Neutral View

U.S. import and export prices decline.

04. Employment
1
Positive View
 
05. Real Estate
1
Positive View
 
06. Manufacturing
1
Neutral View
 
07. Consumer
1
Negative View
 
08. Sales & Inventories
3
2
Positive View
 
09. Business Activity
Non Available
 
10. Government
2
Neutral View
U.S. budget deficit widens $139 billion in May 2013.
11. Balance of Payments
1
Neutral View
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 24-2013
7
4
5
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 24 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 24-2013
7
4
5
Positive View
Week 24, 2013 has been rated positive.
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 24-2013 ENDING JUN. 14
Reports Commentary

Sales

June is a critical month for most retailers, representing the peak of seasonal business ahead of traditional July clearance sales. Sales performance for the week was somewhat mixed.

Most retailers were slightly below plan as retailers faced unfavorable calendar comparisons against last year's Memorial Day sales. With slightly less emphasis on seasonal buying, sales leader lists were more mixed. Weather will be key in terms of allowing stores to make up sales before margin cutting clearance time.

Mortgage Rates

Rates have jumped in recent weeks on worries that the Federal Reserve could slow its economic stimulus program sooner than had been expected. The Fed is buying $85 billion in securities a month to keep borrowing rates low.

Analysts have said rising mortgage rates could spur some homebuyers who have been sitting on the fence to make up their minds to buy.

Cheap mortgage rates have helped the beaten down housing market get back on its feet in the past year as home prices have climbed, sales have improved and available inventory has tightened. Even with the recent gain, rates remain low by historical standards.

Government

The federal deficit represents the annual difference between the government's spending and the tax revenues it takes in. Each deficit contributes to the national debt, which recently topped $16 trillion. At the same time, a smaller deficit has taken pressure off of negotiations to raise the federal borrowing limit.

The government is taking in more money because of higher rates that went into effect on Jan. 1. Modest economic growth has also boosted tax revenue.

The deficit reached a record $1.41 trillion in budget year 2009, which began four months before President Barack Obama took office. That deficit was largely because of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Tax revenue plummeted, while the government spent more on stimulus programs.

The budget gaps in 2010 and 2011 were slightly lower than the 2009 deficit as a gradually strengthening economy generated more tax revenue.

President George W. Bush also ran annual deficits through most of his two terms in office after he won approval for broad tax cuts and launched wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The last time the government ran an annual surplus was in 2001.

Current Account

The current account deficit represented 2.7 percent of gross domestic product, hovering near the 2.6 percent recorded in the prior three-month period. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit was close to the record low in the second quarter of 2009.

Japan

Japan stocks plunge as dollar nears 94; Nikkei Average crashes to end down 6.4%
S&P revises U.S. credit outlook to stable from negative

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

  1. Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March 2013.

  2. The U.S. job market remains weak and that it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to end its extraordinary stimulus programs.

  3. Home prices increased 1.3% in March 2013.

  4. New-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000.

  5. The 30-year loan increased to 3.59%.

  6. U.S. durable-goods orders rise 3.3% in April 2013.


       
    To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:    
    U.S. dollar crushed and Japanese Yen Soars    
         
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