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Week 10 -2013 | From Mar. 04 to Mar. 08, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 10-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 10-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
On a year-on-year basis, the reading was 1.8% for the second time in three weeks, is back down to its lowest year-on-year rate since early November 2012. Sales for the month--and final week of the fiscal month--were sluggish as weather curbed the consumers ability and willingness to shop.
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1.8%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 0.2% in the week ended Saturday from the week earlier on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, climbing for the third straight week. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Sales for the week rose 2.2% year-over-year. The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 2.6% from last year, compared with a 2.9% targeted gain. |
2.2%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
National chain store sales rose 1.3% in the first four weeks of February 2013 from January 2013 , according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday. The index's rise compared with a targeted 1.6% gain. |
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Thu |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
U.S. service-sector companies grew at a slightly faster pace in February 2013 and expanded for the 39th straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. |
56.0 |
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Business Activity |
The U.S. services sector grew in February 2013 and topped Wall Street's estimates, the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 56% last month from 55.2% in January 2013. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Composite seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both Refinance and Purchase, increased -14.8% in Week 09, ended Mar 01. |
14.8%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Purchase Applications rose 15.0% last week. The Refinance Applications rose as well, 15.0%. A sharp drop in rates during the week was a plus for activity with the average 30-year mortgage down seven basis points to 3.70%. |
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Wed |
ADP Employment Report |
Private-sector employment growth slowed down in February 2013, but still beat expectations, as the economy gained 198,000 private jobs. |
198,000
Jobs
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Employment |
Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported that January 2013 saw an increase of 215,000 private jobs, compared with a prior estimate of 192,000, payrolls processor ADP said Wednesday. |
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Fri |
Factory Orders |
U.S. factory orders decline 2% in February 2013. Bookings dropped 2% after a revised 1.3% increase in December 2012. |
-2.0% |
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Manufacturing |
Orders to U.S. factories fell in January 2013 by the most in five months, weighed down by a slump in demand for military hardware and commercial aircraft. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
This week`s EIA Report showed us that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. Refinery inputs fell sharply in the week, down to a rate of 14.0 million barrels per day from 14.5 million in the prior week. |
3.8M
Barrels
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Commodity |
At 381.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. |
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Wed |
Beige Book |
Government fiscal and health-care policies are holding back private spending and hiring, according to the Beige Book. US economy still sluggish: Fed's Beige Book. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Several of the Fed's 12 district banks reported that retail sales slowed in their districts through late February 2013. The US economy chugged along at a lackluster pace in recent weeks and noted concerns about the impact of new tax hikes on consumer spending. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000 in the week ended March 3, putting them at the lowest level since mid-January, the Labor Department said Thursday. |
340K |
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Employment |
The number of Americans who applied last week for new unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in a month and a half and hovered just above a five-year low, offering another sign that the outlook for hiring might be on the upswing. |
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Thu |
Productivy and Costs |
U.S. Productivity Fell in Fourth Quarter, Q4 2012, as Labor Costs Rose. The measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 1.9% annual rate after a 3.1% third-quarter gain. |
-1.9%
Q/Q
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Business Activity |
The productivity of U.S. workers fell in the fourth quarter by the most in four years, while labor expenses accelerated as companies added workers and boosted hours, revised Labor Department figures showed today. |
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Thu |
U.S. Trade Balance |
The U.S. trade deficit widened in January 2013, reflecting a big jump in oil imports and a drop in exports. The Commerce Department said Thursday that the deficit rose to $44.4 billion US, an increase of 16.5% from December 2012. |
$-44.4B |
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Balance of Payments |
A narrower trade gap boosts growth because it means U.S. companies are earning more from overseas sales while U.S. consumers and businesses are spending less on foreign products. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The EIA said natural-gas inventories fell just 146 bcf last week to 2,083 bcf. |
-146
bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas storage dropped -146B in the week ending at March 1, after falling -171B in the week before. |
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Tue |
Consumer Credit |
Total consumer installment credit expanded by $16.15 billion to $2.795 trillion. Revolving credit, which mostly measures credit-card use, rebounded $106 million in January 2013 after a falling a revised $3.16 billion in December 2012. |
$16.2B |
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Consumer |
Consumer credit in January 2013 recorded its largest increase in five months, as consumers borrowed to buy cars and go to school, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday Feb. 27 increased $18.2 billions from a fall of $-4.5 billions the prior week, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
$18.2B |
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Government |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion for the fifth week in a row as the central bank continued with its efforts to spur the economy through bond purchases. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-22.6 Billions. |
$-22.6B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 3.52% from 3.51% last week. That's near the 3.31% rate reached in November, the lowest on records dating to 1971 |
3.52% |
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Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage held at 2.76%. The record low is 2.63%. The lowest mortgage rates in decades have boosted home sales and helped the market rebound. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
The gain in job creation, as reported by the Labor Department, comes as Washington continues to debate mandatory spending cuts that took place at the beginning of March 2013, lending to worry that the rise may not last. |
7.7% |
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Employment |
Job creation broke out in February 2013, with the economy creating a net 236,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%. |
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Fri |
Wholesale Trade |
Wholesale inventories rose at their fastest pace in more than a year in January 2013 as construction companies and computer merchants built up their stocks, though sales fell for the first time in three months. |
1.2% |
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Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said on Friday wholesale inventories increased 1.2% to $504.4 billion after a revised 0.1 percent rise in December 2012. This was the fastest pace of growth since December 2011. At January's sales pace it would take 1.21 months to clear shelves, slower than December's pace of 1.19 months. |
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| WEEK 10-2013 ENDING MAR. 08 |
Reports Commentary
The government on Thursday revised the drop in year-end productivity to a 1.9% annual rate from 2.0% in its preliminary tally.
The output of goods and services and the amount of time workers put in on the job were both somewhat higher compared to the earlier estimate. Even with the revision, the decline was the steepest since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Lower productivity is bad for a country in the long run, a sign of poor or declining economic health. Yet in the short term, declining productivity can be a signal that companies need to hire more workers to keep up with rising demand while maintaining strong profit margins.
In 2012 productivity rose 0.7%, down from the prior estimate of 1.0%. That's slightly faster than the 0.6% rate in 2011 but well below the 3.1% pace in 2010, a trendline that usually occurs several years into a recovery.
China
Mainland Chinese stocks plunged Monday after Beijing introduced a fresh set of curbs on the property market to cool home prices.
The Shanghai Composite ended at 2,273.40, tumbling 3.7% for its worst percentage drop since August 2011 U.S. stocks started lower Monday after a move by Chinese authorities to cool property prices, combined with lingering uncertainty over the impact of forced U.S. budget cuts, prompted a global selloff in assets tied to growth prospects.
Europe
European Central Bank leaves key rate at 0.75%; Draghi news conference awaited. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi straddled the line on the potential for a future rate cut on Thursday, while insisting that markets are taking Italy's political turmoil in strides.
Employment
Private job creation stood at a robust 246,000, finally indicating that the economy may be ready to escape the tight growth range in which it has been held since the financial crisis.
Service industries led the gains with 73,000 new jobs, while construction added 48,000 and health care provided 32,000.
A separate unemployment measure that includes workers no longer looking for jobs and those working part-time for economic reasons edged lower to 14.3 percent. At the same time, the labor force participation rate, which measures workers and those looking for jobs, also fell, to a 32-year low of 63.5 percent, tied with where it stood in August 2012.
The jobs number certainly holds out a hope that we are shifting to a stronger pace of payroll gains, but it's a little puzzling if you compare what's going on in the job numbers with other measures of activity, such as GDP tracking.
Inventories
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product, and weakness in the category in the fourth quarter subtracted 1.6 percentage points from the economy's annual growth pace at that time. Economists expect the drawdown on inventories to reverse in the first quarter.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- U.S. economy still sluggish: Fed's Beige Book.
- U.S. economy created 236,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%.
- Purchase Applications rose 15.0% last week.
- U.S. factory orders decline 2% in February 2013.
- Consumer credit in January 2013 recorded its largest increase in five months.
- Wholesale inventories rise at fastest pace in over year.
- U.S. Productivity Fell in Fourth Quarter, Q4 2012.
- U.S. economy still sluggish: Fed's Beige Book.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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China's Slowing Down Economy |
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