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Week 47 -2013 | From Nov. 18 to Nov. 22, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 47-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 47-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Treasury Intal. Capital |
Expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut back on its bond purchases tripped a run of investment outflow from the U.S. beginning in May 2013. But in September 2013, foreign demand for U.S. long-term securities picked back up with a net inflow of $25.5 billion.
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$25.5B |
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Balance of Payments |
September 2013 shows inflow across categories led by strong foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries and of government agency bonds. Equities, where the recent foreign outflow has been especially deep, show a respectable gain in the month. |
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Mon |
Housing Market Index |
Home builders remain kind of confident in the market for new single-family homes, despite policy uncertainties in Washington, D.C., and rising construction costs. |
54
Level |
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Real Estate |
The Housing Market Index compiled by the National Association of Home Builders remained at 54 in November 2013. This marked the sixth consecutive month that more home builders viewed market conditions as good rather than poor. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. |
2.8%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
For November 2013, ICSC Research said that it expects monthly same-store sales will rise 3.5 to 4.5%, compared with the 4.1% growth recorded for October 2013. On a year-to-year basis, the weekly reading increased 2.8%. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
National chain-store sales eased 0.7% in the first two weeks of November, compared with the comparable period in October, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday.
The index's decline compared with a flat target. |
3.5%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The Johnson Redbook Sales Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period increased 3.4% from a year earlier, compared a target for a 4.1% increase. Sales for the week ended Nov. 16 were up 3.5% year-to-year. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home loans fell in the latest week, dropping for a third straight week, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. |
-2.3%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.3% in the week ended Nov. 15. That number reflects an adjustment for the Veteran's Day holiday, the MBA said. On an unadjusted basis, the index fell 13%. |
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Wed |
Consumer Price Index |
The cost of living in the U.S. declined in October for the first time in six months, showing inflation remains below the Federal Reserve's goal.
|
-0.1%
M/M |
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Inflation |
The consumer-price index dropped 0.1%, reflecting cheaper energy, clothing and new cars, after a 0.2% gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. Excluding volatile food and fuel, the so-called core measure rose 0.1%. |
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Wed |
Retail Sales |
October retail sales data are better than expected. Retail sales jumped 0.4% last month, handily exceeding the 0.1% month-over-month increase anticipated by economists.
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0.4%
M/M |
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Sales and Inventories |
Retail sales jumped 0.4% last month, the U.S. Census Bureau said Wednesday, handily exceeding the 0.1% month-over-month increase anticipated by economists. And the September 2013 performance, which caused deep concern when initially reported as a 0.1% decline, was revised up to reflect no change. |
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Wed |
Existing Home Sales Index |
Fewer Americans bought existing homes in October 2013, as higher mortgage rates, the 16-day partial government shutdown and a limited supply of homes reduced sales. |
5.29M
Level |
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Real Estate |
The National Association of Realtors says home re-sales fell 3.2% in October 2013 from September 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.12 million. That's down from a 5.29 million pace in August and the slowest since June 2013. |
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Wed |
Business Inventories |
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday inventories increased 0.6% after advancing 0.4% in August 2013. That was the largest increase since January 2013. |
0.6% |
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Sales and Inventories |
U.S. business inventories rose more than expected in September 2013 as sales advanced modestly, suggesting the government's third-quarter growth estimate could be revised higher. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil inventories rose less-than-expected last month. Analysts had expected U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to rise 0.900M last month. A slight increase in oil imports fed a small 0.4 million barrel build in oil inventories to 388.5 million barrels in the November 15 week. |
0.4M
Barrels
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Commodity |
In a report, Energy Information Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.375M, from 2.640M in the preceding month. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
FOMC minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting revealed that Fed officials may start winding down their stimulus program for reasons other than an improving job market. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Previously, officials had reassured the market that they would continue with their stimulus until the jobs picture improved. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans initially applying for unemployment aid fell to the lowest level in almost two months last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. |
323K |
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Employment |
In the week ending Nov. 16, the advance figure of seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless benefits edged down by 21,000 to 323,000, the lowest level since late September, from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. |
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Thu |
Producer Price Index |
Producer prices fell for a second straight month in October 2013, indicating inflation pressures remain benign. |
-0.2% M/M |
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Inflation |
The Labor Department said on Thursday its seasonally adjusted producer price index slipped 0.2% last month as gasoline prices tumbled, after dipping 0.1% in September 2013. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The lowest reading of the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey since May has some economists fretting about a slowdown in the key manufacturing sector. |
6.5 |
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Business Activity |
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 6.5 in November 2013 from 19.8 in October. Economists expected a reading of 14.5. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Weekly Change: Prior 20 bcf Actual -45 bcf. |
-45 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 45 billion cubic feet to 3,789 bcf in the November 15 week. A draw of about 35 bcf was expected.
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the November 20 week, the Fed balance sheet slipped $0.8 billion after jumping $55.8 billion the week before. The dip was due to a $12.8 billion decline in foreign currency denominated assets. Holdings of Treasuries rose $13.9 billion.
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$-0.8B |
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Government |
Mortgage-backed securities and federal agency debt slipped somewhat. Total assets for the November 20 week were $3.907 trillion. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-24.9 Billions from $-32.4 Billions revised to $-32.5 Billions. |
$-24.9B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan fell to 4.22% from 4.35% last week. The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage dipped to 3.27% from 3.35%. |
4.22% |
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Interest Rates |
Average U.S. rates on fixed mortgages declined this week after two weeks of increases, keeping home-buying affordable. |
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| WEEK 47-2013 ENDING NOV. 22 |
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Retail Sales
Business was very strong at department stores, apparel stores, discounters and wholesale clubs, in particular. A taste of cold and snowy weather during the week, followed by milder weather, would likely have gotten consumers thinking about coats, sweaters and other seasonal apparel, among other cold-weather merchandise.
Taper
September 2013 was the month when the FOMC, against strong expectations, decided not to taper.
The Fed has said it would begin to slow its policy of buying $85 billion per month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities when economic growth meets its targets. Strong data recently has reinforced concerns that the tapering could come soon. Previously, it was expected that those accommodative monetary policies would last into 2014.
Stock Market and Sales
Americans may be feeling wealthier because of stock market gains, cheaper fuel and indications of an improving economy. Tepid employment expansion and minimal income growth in recent quarters don't seem to be quelling consumers' willingness to spend, she wrote in a note to clients.
Going forward, sustained job creation and bigger income checks are needed to maintain heightened spending patterns, but at least for the moment, short-term optimism may result in more than coal for retailers this holiday season.
The government retail sales data are the last major marker of industry health before next week's Black Friday consumption frenzy considered the traditional kickoff to holiday shopping. The season can account for up to 40% of a retailer's annual revenue.
But this year, retailers are operating in a difficult environment, and many are opening earlier than ever, cutting into the Thanksgiving holiday.
The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is one week shorter than it was last year, giving retailers less time to attract gift buyers. The effects of the government shutdown and the payroll tax increase are still lingering.
Black Friday on Nov. 29 will remain the busiest shopping day of the holiday scrum, and the so-called Super Saturday before Christmas will be the second-strongest for sales.
Inventories
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. Retail inventories, excluding autos - which go into the calculation of GDP - rose 0.4% after increasing 0.3% in August.
The increase in inventories ex-autos implies the government will raise its 2.8% growth estimate for the third quarter when it publishes gross domestic product revisions.
The rate of inventory accumulation in the face of tepid consumer spending suggests businesses will have little appetite to maintain the brisk pace in the fourth quarter, which economists expect to weigh on GDP growth.
Mortgage rates
Rates had spiked over the summer and reached a two-year high in July on speculation that the Federal Reserve would slow its bond purchases later this year.
The Fed held off in September and October but in the minutes for the October meeting, policymakers said they still expected to dial down their easy-money policy within a few months. The bond purchases are intended to keep long-term interest rates low.
Mortgage rates tend to follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. They have stabilized since September and remain low by historical standards.
Still, mortgage rates are nearly a full percentage point higher than in the spring. The uptick has contributed to a slowdown in home sales. The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes fell 3.2% in October, the second straight monthly decline.
MBA data showed 30-year mortgage rates edged up 2 basis points in the latest week, to 4.46 percent.
On Friday stocks closed above 1800 for the first time. Yet looking back to last week, when we got in this region, investors got scared and we retraced back to 1777. |
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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5 Things that could bring the S&P 500 down |
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