 |
 |
|
|
|
Week 28 -2013 | From Jul. 08 to Jul. 12, 2013 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Economic Data for Week 28-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 28-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Consumer Credit |
Consumer credit increased in May 2013 by the most in a year, a sign low borrowing costs were boosting economic growth although interest rates have since risen. |
$19.6B |
|
 |
Consumer |
Total consumer installment credit advanced by $19.6 billion to $2.8 trillion, Federal Reserve data showed on Monday. Economists had expected consumer credit to rise $12.5 billion during the month. |
|
|
Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
Thursday's July 4th holiday made for an extra-long weekend for many consumers and drove ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales tally 3.0% higher in the July 6th week. |
2.9%
Y/Y |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The week-to-week change is actually higher than the year-on-year change which is at plus 2.9% which nevertheless is the strongest reading since May 2013. Clearance promotions also helped sales in the week, and the report notes special strength at grocery stores. |
|
|
Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Like ICSC-Goldman earlier this morning, Redbook reports very strong sales in the July 6th week, at a same-store year-on-year plus 3.6% for the strongest reading since November 2013 . Month-to-month, Redbook sees a 0.6% gain for July 2013. |
3.6%
Y/Y |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
ICSC-Goldman attributes gains in its report to an extra-long July 4th weekend, in contrast to Redbook which cites the week's sharp increases in temperatures which pulled consumers into air-conditioned malls and drove up sales of seasonal goods. |
|
|
Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The surge in costs has been expected to push some undecided buyers into the market as they rush to lock in rates before they rise even more, but MBA's seasonally adjusted gauge of loan requests for home purchases fell 3.1%, the second straight week of declines. |
-4.0%
W/W
|
|
|
Real Estate |
Demand for refinancing has been hit harder as refinancing becomes less attractive at higher rates. MBA's measure of refinancing applications fell 4.4% last week and the refinance share of total mortgage activity slipped to 64% of applications. |
|
|
Wed |
Wholesale Trade |
Wholesale trade revenues in May 2013 were $424.6 billion, up 1.6% from the revised April 2013 level and up 4.1% from May 2012, according to The U.S. Census Bureau. The April 2013 preliminary estimate was revised upward $1.2 billion or 0.3%. |
-0.5% |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
May 2013 sales of durable goods were up 0.3% from last month and were up 3.7% from a year ago. Sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 3% from last month, while sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 4.5%. |
|
|
Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
Crude oil stockpiles dropped 6.9 million barrels to 367 million barrels, compared with an average survey estimate for stocks to drop 2.2 million barrels on the week. |
N/A |
|
|
Commodity |
The EIA also said Wednesday that gasoline supplies fell by 2.6 million barrels while distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, increased by 3 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles were expected to rise by 1.2 million barrels, while forecasts called for an increase of 1.4 million barrels for distillates.
|
|
|
Wed |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
The FOMC minutes of the June 18-19 meeting clarified the Fed's ongoing policy debate. Much was already known from the statement and FedSpeak but there were key clarifications and some mildly surprising detail. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The minutes affirmed the statement's decision to retain the fed funds rate at a range of zero to 0.25% and to maintain the pace of the Fed's asset purchase programs. There was the already known disagreement with some members wanting asset purchase tapering soon while others focused on the need for further improvement in the labor market.
|
|
|
Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high last week, but economists were quick to brush off the rise as a result of volatile number-crunching, rather than a discouraging sign for the economy. |
360K |
|
|
Employment |
About 360,000 people filed for initial jobless claims in the week ended July 6, up 16,000 from the previous week -- and the highest level since mid-May -- the Labor Department said Thursday. |
|
|
Thu |
Import and Export Prices |
A rise in petroleum products eased what are still negative readings for import prices which in total fell 0.2% in June 2013. This is the fourth straight negative reading though it is less severe than declines of 0.7% and 0.6% in May 2013 and April 2013. |
0.25
Y/Y
|
|
|
Inflation |
Prices for U.S. imports and exports fell in June for the fourth straight month, a sign of cooler economic growth worldwide that could weigh on the American economy and unnerve policymakers. |
|
|
Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
This week's natural gas inventory build was the same as consensus estimates, resulting in a neutral short-term catalyst. |
|
|
|
Commodity |
On July 11, the EIA reported that natural gas inventories increased 82 bcf (billion cubic feet) for the week ended July 5, bringing current inventories to 2,687 bcf. A survey of experts accurately predicted the build in inventories to be 82 bcf. |
|
|
Thu |
Treasury Budget |
The Treasury's budget got a one-time boost of $66 billion in a June 2013 statement that nevertheless points to fundamentally strong improvement in the government's deficit. June 2013 doesn't show a deficit at all but a rare surplus of $116.5 billion, as receipts rose and spending fell compared to the same month a year ago. For the fiscal year to date, the deficit is $510 billion, 44% less than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year, thanks mostly to increased revenue . |
$116.5
Billions
|
|
|
Government |
The government's receipts totaled $287 billion in June 2013, and spending was $170 billion. In June last year, the government posted a deficit of $60 billion. The government's fiscal year runs from October to September. |
|
|
Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the July 10 week, the Fed balance sheet increased $11.4 billion after gaining $14.1 billion the prior period. The latest advance in assets was led by an increase in $9.9 billion in holdings of Treasuries. "Other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) grew $1.9 billion.' |
$11.4 B |
|
|
Government |
Total assets for the July 10 week stood at $3.504 trillion |
|
|
Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $81.1 Billions from $-22.1 Billions revised to $-21.8 Billions. |
$81.1 B |
|
|
Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
|
|
Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year mortgage rate rose to its highest level in nearly two years, according to mortgage financing company Freddie Mac. |
4.51% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Rates climbed 0.22 percentage points to 4.51% for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan this week, the highest it has been since July 2011. Meanwhile, the average rate for a 15-year loan hit 3.53%, up 0.14 percentage points. |
|
|
Fri |
Producer Price Index |
Inflation worsened in June 2013 at the producer level. The June 2013 producer price index jumped 0.8%, following a 0.5% boost in May 2013. |
0.8% M/M |
|
|
Inflation |
The latest number topped the consensus projection for a 0.5% increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, firmed to 0.2% after rising 0.1% the month before. Expectations were for a 0.2% gain. |
|
|
Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
Consumer sentiment slipped in the first read for July 2013 with the composite posting at 83.9 versus the final for June 2013 at 84.1. July 2013 fell short of market expectations for 84.1. |
83.9
Level |
|
|
Consumer |
Weakness was in the expectations component which dropped to 73.8 from 77.8 in June 2013. However, current conditions improved to 99.7 in mid-July from 93.8 for June 2013. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| WEEK 28-2013 ENDING JUL. 12 |
Reports Commentary
Oil
U.S. Oil Soars Above $106 to 15-Month High
Government Report Shows Steep Drop in Domestic Stockpiles
On July 18, 2013, oil prices hit $109.71 a barrel for Brent crude oil. The catalyst was the removal from office of Egypt's democratically elected President, Mohammed Morsi. Commodities traders worried, without reason, that the Suez Canal could be closed if unrest spread.
The price of oil soared above US$102 a barrel for the first time in over a year as Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi was replaced by the chief justice of constitutional court Wednesday. The All-Time High Was $143.68 a Barrel
Oil prices hit an all-time high of $143.68 a barrel in July 2008. This drove gas prices to $4.17 a gallon.
Rumours of a military coup against the embattled Islamist leader began affecting the commodity market weeks before the deadline to yield to the demands of millions of protesters loomed.
But after the deadline passed Wednesday, and a defiant Morsi was displaced, the risk of fuel supply disruptions in the Egyptian-controlled Suez Canal were raised even more.
The Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes that links the Mediterranean with the Red Sea, plays a crucial role in maintaining global energy supplies.
The Middle East accounts for about a quarter of the world's crude oil output and over two million barrels of oil are transported through the Suez Canal daily.
Treasury Budget
The Treasury's budget got a one-time boost of $66 billion in a June 2013 statement that nevertheless points to fundamentally strong improvement in the government's deficit. June 2013 doesn't show a deficit at all but a rare surplus of $116.5 billion, as receipts rose and spending fell compared to the same month a year ago.
For the fiscal year to date, the deficit is $510 billion, 44% less than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year, thanks mostly to increased revenue . |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
|
|
| |
|
When Bad News is Good News |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
IMPORTANT NOTE: In an effort to comply with all applicable rules, regulations and disclosures please be so kind and read the "General Disclosure" below: |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| GENERAL DISCLOSURE - TRADINGVESTING.COM |
- The material contained on our Website and Economic Calendar must be used at your own risk. Material is believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or validity, nor is Tradingvesting.com responsible for any errors or omissions which may occur. The analysis and/or recommendations made by Tradingvesting.com do not provide, imply, or otherwise constitute a guarantee of performance. All contents and recommendations are based on data and sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that future results will be profitable or will equal past performance, real, indicated or implied.Tradingvesting.com website and material contained therein is not a solicitation to participate in the Futures/Stocks/Options Market. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming Initial Public Offerings with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Tradingvesting.com has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Unless indicated otherwise: economic data is from the U.S and intraday data is at least 20 minutes delayed; all prices are in the local currency; Time is U.S. Eastern Time. Furthermore, there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading.Tradingvesting.com assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results, please red our Risk Disclosure.
- Tradingvesting.com does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time. All information on this website are for educational purposes only and are not intended to provide financial advice. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, do not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold Tradingvesting.com and any authorized distributors of this information harmless in any and all ways. We respect your right to privacy, please click here to view our privacy policy.
- U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
- CFTC rule 4.41: Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
- Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Our linking to these sites does not constitute an endorsement of any products, services or the information found on them. Once you link to another site you are subject to the policies of the new site. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Risk Disclosure. Copyright 2013 Tradingvesting, LLC. All rights reserved. If you have any questions regarding the Online Economic Calendar application, please contact us: click here.
THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT, OF COURSE, DISCLOSE ALL THE RISKS AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS AND EQUITY MARKETS. PLEASE READ MORE AT: TERMS OF SERVICE.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
