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Week 13 -2013 | From Mar. 25 to Mar. 29, 2013


Highlights	Rating	Summary	Week Ratings	Blog-Week

Weeks 2013


	Week 01		Week 27
	Week 02		Week 28
	Week 03		Week 29
	Week 04		Week 30
	Week 05		Week 31
	Week 06		Week 32
	Week 07		Week 33
	Week 08		Week 34
	Week 09		Week 35
	Week 10		Week 36
	Week 11		Week 37
	Week 12		Week 38
	Week 13		Week 39
	Week 14		Week 40
	Week 15		Week 41
	Week 16		Week 42
	Week 17		Week 43
	Week 18		Week 44
	Week 19		Week 45
	Week 20		Week 46
	Week 21		Week 47
	Week 22		Week 48
	Week 23		Week 49
	Week 24		Week 50
	Week 25		Week 51
	Week 26		Week 52

Market Holidays

Mkt	Time	Mon - Mar. 25	Tue - Mar. 26	Wed - Mar. 27	Thu - Mar. 28	Fri - Mar. 29
	7:00			MBA Purchase Applications		Fixed Mortgage Rates
	7:30
	7:45		ICSC-Goldman Index
	8:00
	8:30	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	Durable Good Orders		Jobless/Initial Claims	Personal Income
					Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Consumer Spending
					Corporate Profits	Core PCE
	8:55		Johnson Redbook
	9:00		S&P Case-Shiller HPI
O	9:30					U.S. Holiday: Good Friday
	10:00		New Home Sales	Pending Home Sales	Chicago PMI	Consumer Sentiment
			Consumer Confidence
	10:30			EIA Crude Oil Report	EIA Natural Gas Report
	11:00
	11:30
	12:00
	12:30
	13:00
	13:30
	14:00
	14:30
	15:00
	15:30
C	16:00
	16:30				Fed Balance Sheet
					Money Supply
	17:00
	17:30
	18:00
	18:30

Notice: Economic Data is from the U.S except noted. Data is not Real-Time. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming IPOs with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Read our General Disclosure >>
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**Economic Data for Week 13-2013** | Global View | Week Rating
DATE	DAY	REPORT/CATEGORY	HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 13-2013	LAST
25/MAR/2013	Mon	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	The economy strengthened marginally in January 2013 with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average rising to the highest level since January 2012.	0.44 Level
WEEK 13		Growth	The 3MA has been in positive territory (for the last 3 months) indicating national economic activity was above its historical trend, but above the levels associated with recessions.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	ICSC Goldman Sachs Index	U.S. store sales slumped last week as cold weather kept many shoppers inside their homes. The average temperature was a whopping 15 degrees cooler than the same week last year.	1.0% Y/Y
WEEK 13		Sales and Inventories	The ICSC-Goldman store sales index sunk to year over year gains of only +1.0% from +2.3% the week prior. This is the slowest this metric has been since February of 2010.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	Durable Goods Orders	The U.S. Census Bureau reports that new orders for durable goods increased 5.7%, or $12.4 billion, in February 2013 to a seasonally adjusted $232.1 billion.	N/A
WEEK 13		Manufacturing	Durable goods orders are up 5 of the last 6 months, with January's -4.0% change being the trend-breaker. February US Durables Soar, Bolstered by Transportation.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	Johnson Redbook	The Redbook store sales index is now only +2.6% year over year compared to +2.9% Y/Y the week prior.	2.6% Y/Y
WEEK 13		Sales and Inventories	The descriptions of the week are entirely different with ICSC-Goldman warning that cold weather hurt sales of spring goods while Redbook says consumers, anticipating better weather.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	S&P Case-Shiller Index	Home prices climbed to a six-year high. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index edged up 0.1% to take the year-on-year gain to 8.1%.	1.0% M/M
WEEK 13		Real Estate	U.S. home prices edged up in January 2013 to make the year-on-year improvement the fastest in more than six years, according to data released Tuesday.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	New Home Sales	The Commerce Department said on Tuesday sales dropped 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000 units. Last month's decline followed a 13.1% jump in January 2013.	411K
WEEK 13		Real Estate	Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected in February 2013 after hefty gains the previous month, but steady gains in home prices suggested the housing market recovery remains intact.
26/MAR/2013	Tue	Consumer Confidence	Consumer confidence plunged in March 2013, slumping to a reading of 59.7 in March 2013 from 68.0 in February 2013, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.	59.7 Level
WEEK 13		Consumer	Most of the drop came from a decline in the expectations index, which slumped to 60.9 from 72.4, though the present situation index also fell, to 57.9 from 61.4. The Conference Board said the sequester has created uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook
27/MAR/2013	Wed	MBA purchase Applications	The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 7.7% in the week ended March 22, 2013.	7.7% W/W
WEEK 13		Real Estate	Applications for U.S. home mortgages rebounded last week as interest rates pulled back for the first time in three weeks, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
27/MAR/2013	Wed	Pending Home Sales Index	Pending sales of homes declined 0.4% in February 2013, while longer-term trends showed continuing growth, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.	0.4% M/M
WEEK 13		Real Estate	The pending-home-sales index decreased to 104.8 in February 2013 from 105.2 in January 2013, but was up more than 8% from 96.6 in February 2012. An index reading of 100 equals the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year of data.
27/MAR/2013	Wed	EIA Crude Oil	U.S. crude oil inventories rose more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Wednesday. Analysts had expected U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to rise 0.705M last month.	3.3M Barrels
WEEK 13		Commodity	The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.256M, from -1.314M in the preceding month
28/MAR/2013	Thu	Jobless/Initial Claims	Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 357,000, the Labor Department said. Still, they remained in the middle of their range for this year.	357K Claims
WEEK 13		Employment	The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but probably not enough to suggest the labor market recovery was taking a step back.
28/MAR/2013	Thu	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	GDP expanded at a 0.4% annual rate in Q4-2012, the Commerce Department said, just below the 0.5% gain forecast. The growth rate was the slowest since the first quarter of 2011 and far from what is needed to fuel a faster drop in the unemployment rate.	0.4% Q/Q
WEEK 13		Growth	The U.S. economy expanded at a sluggish pace in the fourth quarter although a big gain in business investment and higher exports of services led the government to push up its previous estimate for growth. Conclusion: U.S. growth at year end better than thought.
28/MAR/2013	Thu	Corporate Profits	The U.S. economy's performance in the fourth quarter was not quite as bad as it first appeared, it turns out. And corporate profits rose in 2012 to an all-time high.	13.3% Y/Y
WEEK 13		Growth	After-tax corporate profits climbed 3.3% in the fourth quarter and 3.7% for all of 2012, adjusted for inventories and other special accounting effects. The level of adjusted corporate profits the highest ever are now 41% larger compared to the year before the last recession began. That could lead to more business spending later in the year.
28/MAR/2013	Tue	Chicago PMI	The Chicago Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index veered downward, falling 4.4 points to 52.4 in March 2013.	52.4 Level
WEEK 13		Manufacturing	After a strong start to the year, the business barometer was knocked back by steep declines in new orders, production, and another dip in order backlogs. All other business activity measures also declined in March 2013, the exception being supplier lead times, which lengthened considerably.
28/MAR/2013	Thu	EIA Natural Gas Report	Working gas in storage was 1,781 Bcf as of Thursday, March 28, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 95 Bcf from the previous week.	-95 bcf
WEEK 13		Commodity	The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended March 15 fell by 95 billion cubic feet, compared to -62 bcf last week.
28/MAR/2013	Thu	Fed Balance Sheet	The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday Mar 28 decreased $4.6 billions from a gain of $41.5 billions the prior week, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday.	$-4.6 Billions
WEEK 13		Government	The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion, (Total Assets = $3.204 trillion), as the central bank continued with its efforts to spur the economy through bond purchases.
28/MAR/2013	Thu	M2 Money Supply	M2 Weekly Change $16.7 Billions from last week $1.9B revised.	$1.8 Billions
WEEK 13		Money Supply	M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
29/MAR/2013	Fri	Fixed Mortgage Rates	As of February 28, 2013, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were at 3.51%, according to Freddie Mac. The lowest they've hit historically was 3.38% in December 2012.	3.51%
WEEK 13		Interest Rates	The 15-year FRM, a popular choice for those looking to refinance, up to 2.76% from 2.72% in the previous week.
29/MAR/2013	Fri	Personal Income	Personal income increased $143.2 billion, or 1.1%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $127.8 billion, or 1.1%, in February 2013.	1.1% M/M
WEEK 13		Consumer	In February 2013 Personal income fell as expected in January 2013 due to fiscal cliff effects but fell more than expected. However, consumer spending held up.
29/MAR/2013	Fri	Consumer Spending Real PCE	Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $77.2 billion, or 0.7%. In January 2013, personal income decreased $513.5 billion, or 3.7%, DPI decreased $498.3 billion, or 4.0%, and PCE increased $40.8 billion, or 0.4%, based on revised estimates	0.7% M/M
WEEK 13		Consumer	Consumers increased spending 0.7% in February 2013 compared with January 2013. It was the biggest gain in five months. The government also revised January 2013 spending to show a 0.4% gain, double the initial estimate.
29/MAR/2013	Fri	Core PCE	The core PCE was up 1.3%, following 1.4% the month before. The strong spending gains prompted some economists to boost their outlook for overall economic growth in the January-March 2013 quarter.	0.1% M/M
WEEK 13		Inflation	Some think the economy grew at a 3% annual rate during the quarter, up significantly from 0.4% rate in the October-December 2012 quarter.
29/MAR/2013	Fri	Consumer Sentiment	The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index advanced to a four-month high of 78.6, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, from 77.6 in February 2013. The median forecast was 72.6 after a preliminary March 2013 reading of 71.8.	78.6 Level
WEEK 13		Consumer	Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly increased in March 2013 from the prior month as Americans grew more optimistic about the outlook for the economy.

? - Rating Explanation

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WEEK 13-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS				RATING	REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 13-2013
01. Interest Rates	1
02. Growth	3				U.S. growth at year end better than thought.
03. Inflation			1
04. Employment		1			Not-So-Great News for Jobless Claims and GDP.
05. Real Estate	2	2			U.S. New Home Sales Drop as Prices Rise
06. Manufacturing	1	1			Durable Goods Orders Increase 5.7% In February
07. Consumer	2	2			U.S. consumer spending and income both up in February: boosting growth forecasts.
08. Sales & Inventories	1	1
09. Business Activity
10. Government			1
11. Balance of Payments
12. Money Supply			1
13. Banking System

REPORTS WEEK 13-2013	10	7	3
MARKET CORRELATION				RATING	MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 13 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil			1		Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas			1		If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe					Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China					If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.

TOTAL WEEK 13-2013	10	7	5		Week 13, 2013 has been rated ...

52 Weeks Calendar

52 Weeks Reports Category Rating

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WEEK 13-2013 ENDING MAR. 29

Reports Commentary

Demand for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in February, though a gauge of planned business spending slipped after surging the previous month, suggesting factory activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.

Durable Goods

Durable goods orders jumped 5.7% as demand for transportation equipment rebounded strongly, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The rise last month in durable goods orders, which range from toasters to aircraft, reversed January's 3.8 percent plunge.

Housing

A measure of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes fell only slightly in February to the second-highest level in nearly three years. There is generally a one- to two-month lag between a signed contract and a completed sale. In February, completed sales of previously occupied homes rose to the fastest pace in more than three years. The gains in both signed contracts and completed sales point to a housing recovery that is strengthening.

Growth

Growth in the final three months of last year was pushed up to 0.4% from 0.1% in the government's third and final analysis of gross domestic product.

The higher profits would also seem to support the argument of equity bulls who say the runup in U.S. stock prices is justified by an improvement in corporate balance sheets.

Higher profits also prompted businesses to return more cash to shareholders in the fourth quarter, though some dividends were granted on a special onetime basis ahead of a tax increase in 2013.

Since the beginning of this year, US fixed mortgage rates have maintained a modest upward trend as the housing market bottoms out. But rates remained at an affordable level for house buying and refinancing.

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

Not-So-Great News for Jobless Claims and GDP.
U.S. New Home Sales Drop as Prices Rise.
Durable Goods Orders Increase 5.7% In February.
U.S. consumer spending and income both up in February: boosting growth forecasts.
U.S. growth at year end better than thought.

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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:

Europe is Now Experience Stagnation

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Europe is now experience Stagnation

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