Reports Commentary
Stocks made 2013 a year to remember, with the S&P tallying its best run since 1997 with a 30% gain
First Trading Day 2014
U.S. stocks fell on their first day of trading in 2014 as investors booked profits in the wake of the S&P 500's best yearly advance since 1997, with many of last year's strongest performers down on the day.
There's no fundamental underpinning to the decline today, just basic portfolio rebalancing on the first day of a new tax year
Slow Start
The stock market is getting the year off to a poor start after climbing almost 30 percent in 2013 and ending the year at record levels.
The S&P 500 has fallen 1.2% in January and is on track to fall for the first three trading days of 2014. If the index ends lower on Monday would be the worst start to a year since 2005. The index climbed just 3% for that the whole year.
Oil
Crude oil dropped 3% to $95.50 per barrel as Libya prepared to restart a major oilfield and on speculation of a sharp rise in crude stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma.
The price of oil, as he pointed out, is already going down as an extra 500,000 barrels a day of Libyan supply are coming back online after the restart of a key oilfield there.
Last week, oil prices dropped 6.3%—its worst week since June 2012. Crude is slightly higher in early Monday trading.
Europe has emerged from recession and Japan's economy is shaking off decades of stagnation. The recovery in the United States is expected to accelerate this year even as the Federal Reserve gradually reduces its stimulus policies. China's new government is implementing reforms to make the world's second-largest economy more stable.
Housing
Signed contracts to buy existing homes rose slightly in November, breaking a five-month negative streak, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index climbed 1.05% month-over-month in October. On a year-over-year basis, home prices were up 13.61%.
This year, total existing home sales are forecast to gain nearly 10% to about 5.1 million—a number that's expected to repeat in 2014.
The national medium existing home price rose about 12% this year. In 2014, prices are expected to rise more moderately at about 5 to 5.5%, according to the association.
Employment
Unemployment rate back down to 7.0%, the lowest level since 2008. And looking forward, the pace of job creation has picked up recently to about 200,000 in both October and November. The economy averaged a little more than 150,000 jobs added each month in 2012.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
Investors are waiting to scrutinize the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting amid expectations it might accelerate the pace of reducing its monetary stimulus on the back of rising economic momentum.
Manufacturing, payrolls and trade balance data due this week will reveal if U.S. economic recovery can be sustained. |