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Week 03 -2013 | From Jan. 14 to Jan. 18, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 03-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 03-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The ICSC and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index eased 0.6% in the week ended Saturday from the week earlier on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as post-holiday shopping blues apparently took hold with few catalysts for spending--other than for staples. |
3.3%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
With the exception of discount stores, most segments were weaker than during the year-earlier period. Weather was a "mild negative" while gasoline prices were neutral-to-positive for consumers. The year-on-year rate of plus 3.3% is down seven tenths from the prior week. |
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Tue |
Producer Price Index |
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted producer price index (PPI) slipped 0.2% last month. Wholesale prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose a modest 0.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. |
-0.2% |
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Inflation |
U.S. producer prices fell in December for the third straight month as food prices declined by the most in over 1 1/2 years, while a measure of underlying prices pointed to minimal inflation pressures in the economy. |
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Tue |
Retail Sales |
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday retail sales increased 0.5% after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in November. Sales in November were previously reported to have gained 0.3%. |
0.5% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Retail sales rose more than expected in December as Americans shrugged off the threat of higher taxes and bought automobiles and a range of other goods, suggesting momentum in consumer spending as the year ended. |
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Tue |
Empire State Mfg Survey |
The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to -7.8 from a revised -7.3 the month before. Economists had expected a flat reading and it was negative. |
-7.80
Level
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Manufacturing |
The Empire State manufacturing index contracted for the sixth month in a row in January, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Retail sales have been slowing this month. The Redbook store sales index is up 1.9% from a year ago, compared to being up 2.1% Y/Y the week prior. This is the weakest Y/Y rate since mid-November. |
1.9%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Store sales in the U.S. slowed the past week as shoppers were likely still exhausted following the holiday season |
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Tue |
Business Inventories |
U.S. business inventories rose 0.3% in November 2012 to a record $1.62 trillion, according to the Commerce Department, in line with expectations. |
0.3% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Business Inventories Rose Modestly in November. At November's sales pace, it would take 1.28 months for businesses to clear shelves, unchanged from October. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, surged 15.2% in the week ended Jan 11. |
15.2%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose for a second straight week following three weeks of declines, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. |
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Wed |
Consumer Price Index |
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the headline consumer price index (CPI) change for December was 0.0% compared to a -0.3% change in November. U.S. consumer prices flat in December. |
0.00% |
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Inflation |
Food saw a 0.2% increase in prices, while energy saw a 1.2% decline, the third consecutive month of decline for energy. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.1% in December, the same as the month prior. |
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Wed |
Treasury Intal Capital |
Net buying of long-term financial assets totaled $52.3 billion during the month, swinging from net sales of $1 billion in October, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. The fiscal cliff drama didn't keep foreign investors away from US securities, at least not in November 2012. |
$52.3B |
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Balance of Payments |
International purchases of U.S. stocks, bonds and other financial assets were more than twice as much as forecast in November as investors sought shelter from a global economic slowdown. |
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Wed |
Industrial Production |
The Federal Reserve reports that industrial production rose 0.3% in December 2012 bringing the total index to 98.1 compared to 97.8 last month. The increase this month follows a 1.0% increase in November 2012. |
0.3%
M/M
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Manufacturing |
In November 2012 it was suggested that the high reading was due to industries rebounding following the destruction of hurricane Sandy. This month we may have returned to a more natural rate. |
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Wed |
Housing Market Index |
US: NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged at 47 in January 2013 despite expectations. NAHB Housing Market Index: 47 vs. 48.0 consensus, 47 in December 2012. |
47
Level
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Real Estate |
The Housing Market Index by NAHB was expected to make a slight upward movement from 47 to 48 in January, but actual data remained still at 47. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly dipped during the week ended January 11, official data showed Wednesday. |
-1.0M
Barrels
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Commodity |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels to 360.30 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. |
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Wed |
Beige Book |
The U.S. economy expanded at either a modest or moderate pace across the country in December and early January, as spending and hiring were held down by concerns over fiscal policy, according to the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book survey released Wednesday. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Concerns about tax and spending policies also impacted housing in at least one region, the survey found. Manufacturing activity was mixed, with three of the 12 Fed regions reporting a decline in factory activity. The labor market, a key focus of Fed officials, was seen as mostly unchanged. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The Labor Department says weekly unemployment benefit applications fell 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 335,000. That's the lowest level since January 2008, just after the recession began. |
335K |
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Employment |
The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid fell to a five-year low last week, a hopeful sign the job market is healing. But much of the decline reflects seasonal volatility in the data. |
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Thu |
Housing Starts |
In the freshest data signaling a strengthening housing market, starts rose 12.1% in December 2012 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 954,000 the highest level since June 2008. |
954K |
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Real Estate |
Home construction surged 12.1% in December 2012 to end best year since 2008. The Commerce Department said that starts at building sites for homes surged 12.1% last month to a 954,000-unit annual rate. |
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Thu |
Building Permits |
Forward momentum continues as Building Permits gained 0.3% to an annual pace of 903,000 units. Market expectations for housing permits for December were for 910,000 units. |
910K |
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Real Estate |
Housing is still recovering and at moderate levels of activity but December starts suggest that recovery is moving somewhat faster than earlier believed. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The survey 's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a revised reading of 4.6 in December to -5.8 this month. |
-5.8
Level
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Business Activity |
The last report showed a surprising reading of +8.1. This reading was projected to be +6.0, but was a horrendous -5.8. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
In the January 17, 2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, EIA published historical data back to 2007 showing the breakout of working gas storage in salt caverns versus other types of storage facilities in the Producing Region (Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Kansas). |
-148bcf |
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Commodity |
Unlike other types of storage facilities, salt cavern storage is capable of rapid cycling and can be filled and drawn many times over the course of a year. For this reason, data regarding salt cavern storage is of particular interest to analysts and industry participants who follow natural gas markets. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded over the past week, approaching $3 trillion, as the central bank continued with its easy-money policy. |
$35.1B |
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Government |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Jan. 16 increased to $2.965 trillion from $2.930 trillion a week earlier, it said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change. |
$8.8B |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), the overall average rate in the U.S. rang in at 3.38%, a two-basis-point drop from the previous week. In addition, the rate of 15-year FRMs stayed at last week's rate of 2.66%. |
3.38% |
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Interest Rates |
Rates for five-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) also stayed flat compared to last week, at 2.67%. The average one-year ARM dropped from 2.60%, to 2.57%. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
University of Michigan consumer-sentiment gauge declines in January. The sentiment gauge, which covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions, averaged about 87 in the year before the most recent recession |
71.3
Level
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Consumer |
The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment gauge declined to 71.3 in a preliminary January reading from a final December level of 72.9, reports said Friday. E |
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| WEEK 03-2013 ENDING JAN. 18 |
Reports Commentary
Sales
Retail Sales were up 4.7% from December 2011 and rose 5.2% for the whole of 2012. The so-called core sales, which strip out automobiles, gasoline and building materials and correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP, increased 0.6% after advancing 0.5% in November.
The second straight month of gains in core sales suggested consumer spending picked up in the fourth quarter after rising at a annual pace of 1.6% in the July through September period.
PPI Falls
The modest core reading suggests businesses are seeing little growth in price pressures, and reinforces the outlook that modest inflation will give the U.S. Federal Reserve space to continue with easy money policies aimed at propping up the economy.
The decline in overall prices brought 12-month inflation to 1.3%, the lowest level since July. A drop in food costs drove most of the overall decline in December prices. Wholesale food prices fell 0.9% from November, the sharpest drop since May 2011. Manufacturing in New York state contracted for a sixth straight month in January, pressured by a fall in new orders and shipments, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report.
Debt Ceiling
If an agreement is not reached on raising the debt limit, the U.S. faces the prospect of defaulting on its loans, having its credit rating downgraded and a double dip recession, economists have warned.
The impact of the economic data on the financial markets might be rather short lived as the political wrangling over the raising of the debt ceiling is starting to heat up in Washington spreading increasingly uncertainty which could limit any advances to the upside.
Production
U.S. Industrial Production Rises 0.3% In December. U.S. retail-level inflation rate unchanged in December; core CPI rate up 0.1%.The index of refinancing applications jumped 15.3%, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 12.9% to the highest level since April 2011.The refinance share of total mortgage activity held steady at 82% of applications. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates were flat at an average 3.61% after rising from 3.52% the week before last. It was the highest level since early November
Housing
There is no doubt that home builders are benefiting from tight supply in the existing home market and overall improved consumer confidence. That was apparent in the home builder confidence numbers released this week, which hit the highest level in six years. Housing starts at 894,000 is near where they were at the depths of the 1981 and 1991 recessions and 60% below the peak in January 2006.
Construction on new U.S. homes jumped in December to the highest rate in more than four years, with gains across the country, as well as in single-family homes and buildings, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported Thursday.
Beige Book
The U.S. economy expanded at either a modest or moderate pace across the country into early January, as spending and hiring were held down by concerns over fiscal policy, according to the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book survey released Wednesday.
Consumer
U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated for a second straight month to hit its lowest in over a year in January, with a record number of consumers citing the recent "fiscal cliff" debate in Washington, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 71.3, down from 72.9 the month before. The index was at its lowest since December 2011.
China
China's economy grows 7.9% in Q4 vs. year earlier, beating 7.8% forecast. Economic data from China showed the economy grew at a faster-than-expected 7.9% in the fourth quarter, rebounding after seven straight quarters of slowdown, indicating the world's second-largest economy was recovering from its recent slowdown. Both Tokyo and Hong Kong stock markets surged to multi-month highs following the upbeat sentiment.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- U.S. economy's growth stunted by fiscal worries: Fed's Beige Book.
- Inflation Remains Tame: U.S. CPI Flat In December.
- Unemployment benefit applications fell 37,000.
- Home construction surged 12.1% in December 2012.
- New York-region manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month.
- University of Michigan consumer-sentiment gauge declines in January.
- Retail Sales Get Auto Boost and rise 0.5% in December.
- The diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a revised reading of 4.6 in December to -5.8 this month.
- The U.S. Balance Sheet expanded over the past week, approaching $3 trillion.
- The fiscal cliff drama didn't keep foreign investors away from U.S. securities.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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VIX Dropped 39% its biggest one-week retreat ever |
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IMPORTANT NOTE: In an effort to comply with all applicable rules, regulations and disclosures please be so kind and read the "General Disclosure" below: |
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