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Week 29 -2013 | From Jul. 15 to Jul. 19, 2013


Highlights	Rating	Summary	Week Ratings	Blog-Week

Weeks 2013


	Week 01		Week 27
	Week 02		Week 28
	Week 03		Week 29
	Week 04		Week 30
	Week 05		Week 31
	Week 06		Week 32
	Week 07		Week 33
	Week 08		Week 34
	Week 09		Week 35
	Week 10		Week 36
	Week 11		Week 37
	Week 12		Week 38
	Week 13		Week 39
	Week 14		Week 40
	Week 15		Week 41
	Week 16		Week 42
	Week 17		Week 43
	Week 18		Week 44
	Week 19		Week 45
	Week 20		Week 46
	Week 21		Week 47
	Week 22		Week 48
	Week 23		Week 49
	Week 24		Week 50
	Week 25		Week 51
	Week 26		Week 52

Market Holidays

Mkt	Time	Mon - Jul. 15	Tue - Jul. 16	Wed - Jul. 17	Thu - Jul. 18	Fri - Jul. 19
	7:00			MBA Purchase Applications		Fixed Mortgage Rates
	7:30
	7:45		ICSC-Goldman Index	Bank Reserve Settlement
	8:00
	8:30	Empire Estate Mfg Survey	Consumer Price Index	Housing Starts	Jobless/Initial Claims
		Retail Sales		Building Permits
	8:55		Johnson Redbook
	9:00		Treasury Intal Capital
O	9:30		Industrial Production
	10:00	Business Inventories	Housing Market Index		Philadelphia Fed Survey
					Leading Indicators
	10:30			EIA Crude Oil Report	EIA Natural Gas Report
	11:00
	11:30
	12:00
	12:30
	13:00
	13:30
	14:00			Beige Book 5
	14:30
	15:00
	15:30
C	16:00
	16:30				Fed Balance Sheet
					Money Supply
	17:00
	17:30
	18:00
	18:30

Notice: Economic Data is from the U.S except noted. Data is not Real-Time. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming IPOs with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Read our General Disclosure >>
? - Rating Explanation				<< Prev Week - Next Week >>

**Economic Data for Week 29-2013** | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK	DAY	REPORT/CATEGORY	HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 29-2013	LAST
15/JUL/2013	Mon	Empire Estate Mfg Index	The July 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve modestly. The general business conditions index rose two points to 9.5.	9.46 Level
WEEK 29		Manufacturing	The new orders index rose ten points to 3.8, and the shipments index climbed twenty-one points to 9.0. The prices paid index fell four points to 17.4, pointing to a slower pace of input price increases, while the prices received index fell to 1.1, suggesting that selling prices were little changed.
15/JUL/2013	Mon	Retail Sales	Retail sales disappointed in June 2013. The headline number was moderately healthy but expectations were high and the detail was even more disappointing. The latest boost got a lot of lift from autos and gasoline. Motor vehicles rose 1.8% after a 1.4% advance in May 2013. Ex-auto sales were flat after rising 0.3% in May 2013.	0.4% M/M
WEEK 29		Sales and Inventories	Retail sales gained 0.4%, in June 2013 following an increase of 0.5% in May 2013. Analysts projected a 0.8% jump.
15/JUL/2013	Mon	Business Inventories	Inventories are on the rise but very slightly and are not rising relative to sales. Business inventories inched 0.1% higher in May 2013 following a 0.2% revised gain in April 2013. But relative to sales, as measured by the inventory-to-sales ratio, inventories are down, to 1.29 vs 1.30 in both the prior two months.	0.1% M/M
WEEK 29		Sales and Inventories	Inventory growth has been flat the past two years which is a positive given the moderate outlook for final demand. Imbalances in inventories relative to sales can pose risks for production and employment.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	ICSC Goldman Sachs Index	The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 0.7% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as cold weather damped down spring-merchandise sales.	1.7% Y/Y
WEEK 29		Sales and Inventories	The year-on-year rate of plus 1.7% is down more than 1 percentage point from the prior week for one of the lowest readings of the year, 2013.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	Consumer Price Index	Headline inflation at the consumer level jumped in June 2013 largely on energy. Meanwhile, the core rate held steady. The consumer price index for June 2013 surged 0.5%, following a modest rebound of 0.1% in May 2013.	0.5% M/M
WEEK 29		Inflation	The latest number came in higher than the consensus forecast for 0.4%. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-increased 0.2%, matching the pace in May 2013 . Expectations were for a 0.2% increase. Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation jumped to 1.8% from 1.4% in May 2013.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	Housing Market Index	The housing market index (HMI) is up another 6 points this month to 57 for the highest level since the true bubble days of 2006. Since just April 2013, this index is up 16 points.	57 Level
WEEK 29		Real Estate	The HMI index is higher than 50 indicates that market conditions favorable Builders outnumber poor market conditions that the number of builders.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	Johnson Redbook	Like ICSC-Goldman, Redbook reports a big drop in the July 13 week that follows a big bounce up in the prior holiday week. Month-over-month, Redbook is showing a 0.8% gain so far for July 2013.	3.0% Y/Y
WEEK 29		Sales and Inventories	Year-on-year same-store sales growth is 3.0% in the week for Redbook, down 6 tenths from the prior week which was the year's best rate. Redbook is trending higher right now than ICSC-Goldman where indications right now are pointing to a flat July 2013.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	Treasury Intal Capital	U.S. accounts have been heavy buyers of foreign securities while foreign accounts have been either light sellers of U.S. securities or have been on the sidelines.	$-27.2B
WEEK 29		Balance of Payments	For a fourth straight month, which is an unusually long streak, net purchases of long-term securities show an outflow, at $27.2 billion in May 2013 vs a revised $21.8 billion in April 2013.
16/JUL/2013	Tue	Industrial Production	Industrial production regained some momentum in June 2013 after weak numbers in April 2013 and May 2013. Overall industrial production rose 0.3%, following no change in May 2013, originally unchanged, and a 0.3% decline in April 2013. Expectations were for a 0.2% advance.	0.3% M/M
WEEK 29		Manufacturing	The manufacturing component gained 0.3% after a 0.2% rise in May 2013. Analysts projected a 0.2% gain. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing posted a 0.2% advance, matching the pace in May 2013.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	MBA purchase Applications	High interest rates continue to decrease the demand for refinancing loans, leading to a decrease in mortgage applications. Purchase applications rose by 1.0%, but refinancing applications continued to decline and are now at a 2-year low after decreasing by 4.0%.	-2.6% W/W
WEEK 29		Real Estate	Additionally, when looking at the adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes refinancing and purchase applications, there was an overall decrease of 2.6% in the week ended July 12.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	Bank Reserve Settlement	Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.	N/A
WEEK 29		Banking System	Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	Housing Starts	Housing starts in June 2013 fell back 9.9%, following an 8.9% surge in May 2013. Housing starts retrenched sharply in June 2103 on a downswing in the volatile multifamily component. And atypically wet weather likely weighed on starts.	836K
WEEK 29		Real Estate	Economists forecast that builders started construction on houses and apartments last month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 950,000. That would be up from 914,000 in May 2013 and the highest since March 2013, when the construction pace topped 1 million for the first time in five years.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	Building Permits	Permits also dropped sharply on a plunge in the multifamily component. Permits fell 7.5% in June 2013 after dipping 2.0% the prior month.	911K
WEEK 29		Real Estate	June's annualized pace of 0.911 million units was up 16.1% on a year-ago basis. Analysts expected 0.990 million units for June 2013 permits.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	EIA Crude Oil	U.S. crude inventories fell sharply in the week ended July 12, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration unit of the U.S. Department of Energy.	N/A
WEEK 29		Commodity	Crude oil stockpiles dropped 6.9 million barrels to 367 million barrels, compared with an average survey estimate for stocks to drop 2.2 million barrels on the week.
17/JUL/2013	Wed	Beige Book 5	Today's Beige Book Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts that overall economic activity continued to increase at a "modest to moderate pace" since the previous survey. This matches the characterization of the economy from the prior Beige Book.	N/A
WEEK 29		Interest Rates	The latest Beige Book shows the economy growing at a gradual pace with inflation low and the labor market still soft. The latest report does not suggest a quick tapering in Fed asset purchases. Policy likely is steady for now. The latest Beige Book is based on information collected through July 8, 2013.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	Jobless/Initial Claims	The Department of Labor's latest report on initial weekly unemployment claims is out and it looks better than expected. Claims fell 24k to 334,000, which was lower than the 345,000 expected by economists.	334K
WEEK 29		Employment	Jobless claims were above consensus in last week's report, likely due to seasonal adjustment problems relating to annual auto plant shutdowns.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	Philadelphia Fed Survey	The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surprised to the upside in July 2013 increasing to 19.8 from 12.5 in June 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported today. Market consensus pointed to a drop to 7.8.	19.8 Level
WEEK 29		Business Activity	Manufacturing has been sidelined for most the year, the result to a large degree of weakness in foreign markets. But the sector is now regaining momentum and looks to begin to contribute once again to the nation's economic growth.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	Leading Indicators	The Conference Board's index of leading U.S. indicators showed no change in June 2013, a sign of uneven progress across economic sectors. The data has economists predicting that the rest of 2013 will be shaky.	0.0% M/M
WEEK 29		Business Activity	Data released Thursday showed the leading index was unchanged last month after rising a revised 0.2% in May 2013, first reported as 0.1%. The figures fell short of economists' modest predictions of 0.3% growth.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	EIA Natural Gas Report	Natural-gas futures prices were higher Thursday ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data. If the forecast is correct, stocks will total 2.751 trillion cubic feet, about 1% below the five-year average and 12.9% below last year's level for the same week.	58 bcf
WEEK 29		Commodity	A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 17 analysts shows expectations that EIA will report an inventory build of 64-billion cubic feet, when it issues its data at 10:30 a.m. EDT. A build of that size would top the year-earlier rise of 29 bcf in the same week of 2012, but would be less than the five-year average rise of 70 bcf.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	Fed Balance Sheet	For the July 17 week, the Fed balance sheet expanded $33.8 billion after increasing $11.4 billion the week before. The latest gain was led by a $26.4 billion boost in holdings of mortgage-backed securities with Treasuries rising $7.5 billion. Federal agency debt declined $2.7 billion.	$33.8 Billions
WEEK 29		Government	Total assets for the July 17 week posted at $3.538 trillion.
18/JUL/2013	Thu	M2 Money Supply	M2 Weekly Change $-8.8 Billions from $81.1 Billions revised to $-32.9 Billions.	$-8.8 Billions
WEEK 29		Money Supply	M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
19/JUL/2013	Fri	Fixed Mortgage Rates	Total assets for the July 17 week posted at $3.538 trillion.The 30-year fixed rate was 4.51% the previous week and 3.53% a year ago. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to 4.37% for the week ending July 18.	4.37%
WEEK 29		Interest Rates	The 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.41%, down from last week's 3.53%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.83%.

? - Rating Explanation

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WEEK 29-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS				RATING	REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 29-2013
01. Interest Rates			2
02. Growth
03. Inflation		1
04. Employment	1
05. Real Estate	1	3
06. Manufacturing	2
07. Consumer
08. Sales & Inventories	2	2
09. Business Activity	1		1
10. Government			1
11. Balance of Payments		1
12. Money Supply			1
13. Banking System			1

REPORTS WEEK 29-2013	7	7	6
MARKET CORRELATION				RATING	MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 29 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil			1		Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas			1		If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe					Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China					If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.

TOTAL WEEK 29-2013	7	7	8		Week 29, 2013 has been rated neutral.

52 Weeks Calendar

52 Weeks Reports Category Rating

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WEEK 29-2013 ENDING JUL. 19

Reports Commentary

GDP

The consensus view by economists is that second quarter GDP growth is going to come in around 1.2%. I am becoming more and more convinced we are going to see actual GDP growth for the second quarter materialize around 0.7% to 0.9%, weaker than expectations.

Roughly 20% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings and although it is early in the earnings reporting season, only 62% of the companies reporting have beaten earnings expectations.

This is slightly below the 67% level that I like to see in terms of positive earnings surprises (companies that beat earnings expectations) which are necessary for a strong quarter for earnings.

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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:

S&P 500 Up and China Down

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