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Week 20 -2013 | From May. 13 to May. 17, 2013


Highlights	Rating	Summary	Week Ratings	Blog-Week

Weeks 2013


	Week 01		Week 27
	Week 02		Week 28
	Week 03		Week 29
	Week 04		Week 30
	Week 05		Week 31
	Week 06		Week 32
	Week 07		Week 33
	Week 08		Week 34
	Week 09		Week 35
	Week 10		Week 36
	Week 11		Week 37
	Week 12		Week 38
	Week 13		Week 39
	Week 14		Week 40
	Week 15		Week 41
	Week 16		Week 42
	Week 17		Week 43
	Week 18		Week 44
	Week 19		Week 45
	Week 20		Week 46
	Week 21		Week 47
	Week 22		Week 48
	Week 23		Week 49
	Week 24		Week 50
	Week 25		Week 51
	Week 26		Week 52

Market Holidays

Mkt	Time	Mon - May. 13	Tue - May. 14	Wed - May. 15	Thu - May. 16	Fri - May. 17
	7:00			MBA Purchase Applications		Fixed Mortgage Rates
	7:30
	7:45		ICSC-Goldman Index	Bank Reserve Settlement
	8:00
	8:30	Retail Sales	Imports and Exports Prices	Producer Price Index	Jobless/Initial Claims
				Empire Estate Mfg Survey	Consumer Price Index
					Housing Starts
					Building Permits
	8:55		Johnson Redbook
	9:00			Treasury Intal Capital
O	9:30			Industrial Production
	10:00	Business Inventories		Housing Market Index	Philadelphia Fed Survey	Consumer Sentiment
				E-Commerce Sales		Leading Indicators
	10:30			EIA Crude Oil Report	EIA Natural Gas Report
	11:00
	11:30
	12:00
	12:30
	13:00
	13:30
	14:00
	14:30
	15:00
	15:30
C	16:00
	16:30				Fed Balance Sheet
					Money Supply
	17:00
	17:30
	18:00
	18:30

Notice: Economic Data is from the U.S except noted. Data is not Real-Time. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming IPOs with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Read our General Disclosure >>
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**Economic Data for Week 20-2013** | Global View | Week Rating
DATE	DAY	REPORT/CATEGORY	HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 20-2013	LAST
13/MAY/2013	Mon	Retail Sales	Sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly in April 2013 and exceeded Wall Street's forecast, as broad demand for most goods outweighed a sharp drop in spending at gas stations.	0.1% M/M
WEEK 20		Sales and Inventories	Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department said Monday, in a sign that consumer spending might not have softened as much as expected. Consumers evidently used some of their savings at the gas pump to boost spending on electronics, clothes and hobby items, among other things.
13/MAY/2013	Mon	Business Inventories	Business inventories were flat in March 2013 at a seasonally adjusted $1.64 trillion, the Commerce Department said Monday.	0.0% M/M
WEEK 20		Sales and Inventories	The $1.64 trillion represents 4.5% gain from the same period in 2012. Sales dropped 1.1% in March 2013, and the year-on-year gain was 1.8%. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.29 from 1.28.
14/MAY/2013	Tue	ICSC Goldman Sachs Index	Cold weather once again pulled down store sales, according to ICSC-Goldman whose same-store sales index fell 2.0% from the prior week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.2%.	1.2% Y/Y
WEEK 20		Sales and Inventories	This is the lowest rate since a plus 1.0% rate in mid-March 2013 when cold weather was also hurting sales. These are the two lowest year-on-year rates for this series of the recovery.
14/MAY/2013	Tue	Import and Export Prices	The prices paid for imported goods fell 0.5% in April 2013, mainly because of lower oil costs. Over the past 12 months, import prices are 2.6% lower. The price of U.S.-made goods exported to other nations, meanwhile, declined by 0.7% in April 2013 after a revised 0.5% drop in March 2013.	-2.6% Y/Y
WEEK 20		Inflation	Excluding fuel, import prices fell by a smaller 0.2% in April 2013. Fuel import prices sank 1.7% last month after a 0.6% drop in March 2013. The drop in import prices in March 2013 was revised to show a 0.2% decrease instead of 0.5% as originally reported.
14/MAY/2013	Tue	Johnson Redbook	Redbook reports a sales uptick for chain stores last week, at a plus 2.8% year-on-year same-store rate which is up five tenths from the prior week's rate.	2.8% Y/Y
WEEK 20		Sales and Inventories	The improvement in Redbook Sales contrasts with ICSC-Goldman which reported a negative reading due to abnormally cold weather.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	MBA purchase Applications	The purchase index moved down from multi-year highs, falling 4.0%, with the refinance index showing an even steeper decline, down 8.0%.	-7.3% W/W
WEEK 20		Real Estate	The average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming balances ($417,500 or less) rose a very steep 12 basis points in the week to 3.67% pulling down mortgage activity sharply in the May 10 week.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Bank Reserve Settlement	Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve.	N/A
WEEK 20		Banking System	Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Producer Price Index	April 2013 PPI, producer inflation, was lower than expected, and although you and I enjoy lower prices, the Fed is terrified of lower prices. Headline PPI fell in line with expectations due to a drop in gasoline and also food prices.	-0.7% M/M
WEEK 20		Inflation	The core rate actually softened. The April 2013 producer price index fell 0.7% after a 0.6% decrease the month before. Analysts projected a 0.7% decline.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Empire Estate Mfg Index	The NY region's manufacturing data was atrocious. Its consensus was +3.75 but was -1.43. What's more, this is a diffusion index with the expansion/contraction line at zero; therefore, this is contractionary and quite bearish.	-1.43 M/M
WEEK 20		Manufacturing	The Empire State index fell more than 4 points in the May 2013 report to minus 1.43 for the first negative reading since January 2013.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Treasury Intal Capital	U.S. accounts bought more foreign securities in March 2013 than foreign accounts bought U.S. securities, making for a rare back-to-back outflow in long-term securities which contracted by $13.5 billion vs February's outflow of $13.3 billion which was revised.	$-13.5B
WEEK 20		Balance of Payments	Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries are steady in the latest report, at $1.25 trillion, as are Japanese holdings at $1.11 trillion. Foreign investment in U.S. securities has to pick up steam to help offset the government's deficit, which is running at about $70 billion per month, as well as the nation's trade gap which is running in the $45 billion per month range.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Industrial Production	Industrial production fell by more than expected in April 2013, reflecting a broad decline in factory output and a weather-related decrease in demand for utilities.	-0.5% M/M
WEEK 20		Manufacturing	Industrial production dropped by 0.5% last month after a revised 0.3% increase in March 2013, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday. Economists had expected output to decline 0.2% in April 2013.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	Housing Market Index	NAHB Housing Market Index: +3 to 44, vs. consensus of 43; 41 in April 2013. The housing market index shows some improvement this month which points to a bit of acceleration for the new home market.	44 Level
WEEK 20		Real Estate	Builders are noting an increased sense of urgency among potential buyers as a result of thinning inventories of homes for sale. Builders' main concerns have little to do with demand, and remain centered on rising costs and lot shortages.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	E-Commerce Sales	Q1-2013 e-commerce sales rose a quarter-to-quarter 2.7%, down from the Q4-2012n pace of 4.4%. E-commerce as a percent of total sales rose to a new record 5.5%, up from the prior quarter's 5.4%.	2.7% Q/Q
WEEK 20		Sales and Inventories	Despite the slowing, the gain for e-commerce still easily outpaced the gain for total first-quarter retail sales which were up a quarter-to-quarter 1.1%.
15/MAY/2013	Wed	EIA Crude Oil	WTI crude prices tumbled yesterday after the International Energy Agency said that booming oil output in North America, driven by the shale energy revolution, has created a global supply shock that is reshaping the industry.	N/A
WEEK 20		Commodity	North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world, said IEA Executive Director while presenting the agency's five-year outlook for the oil market.
16/MAY/2013	Thu	Jobless/Initial Claims	The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits surged by 32,000 to 360,000 in the week ended May 11, putting jobless claims at the highest level in a month and a half, according to the U.S. Labor Department.	360K
WEEK 20		Employment	Continuing claims reflect the number of people already receiving benefits. Initial claims from two weeks ago, meanwhile, were revised up to 328,000 from an original reading of 323,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level.
16/MAY/2013	Thu	Consumer Price Index	Consumer inflation pressures eased in March 2013 as gasoline prices dropped, which could add to fears of renewed deflationary pressure in the economy.	-0.4 M/M
WEEK 20		Inflation	The consumer price index for April 2013 fell 0.4% after declining 0.2% in March 2013. The core CPI-excluding food and energy was soft, matching the March 2013 rate of 0.1%.
16/MAY/2013	Tue	Housing Starts	In April 2013, housing starts plunged a monthly 16.5% after rising 5.4% in March 2013. The April 2013 starts annualized level of 0.853 million units fell short of analysts' forecast for 0.969 million units and was up 13.1% on a year-ago basis.	853K
WEEK 20		Real Estate	Privately-owned housing starts in April 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 853,000, 16.5% below the revised March estimate of 1,021,000.
16/MAY/2013	Tue	Building Permits	Permits were unexpectedly strong-suggesting forward momentum for the housing sector. April's annualized pace of 1.017 million units was up 35.8% on a year-ago basis.	1,017K
WEEK 20		Real Estate	For April 2013, housing starts notably disappointed but housing permits were unexpectedly optimistic. Permits jumped 14.3% after a 6.5% decrease in March 2013. Market expectations were for 0.945 million units for April 2013 permits.
16/MAY/2013	Tue	Philadelphia Fed Survey	Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly contracted in May for the first time in three months as new orders retreated and factories cut back on employment and hours.	-5.2 Level
WEEK 20		Business Activity	The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index declined to minus 5.2 from 1.3 the prior month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.
16/MAY/2013	Thu	EIA Natural Gas Report	The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today reported the U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 99 billion cubic feet last week, above the expected build of about 95 billion cubic feet anticipated by analysts.	99 Bcf
WEEK 20		Commodity	Natural gas futures prices were down nearly 1% in advance of the EIA's report, at around $4.03 per million BTUs, and slipped further to around $3.97 immediately following the EIA report.
16/MAY/2013	Thu	Fed Balance Sheet	The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded in the latest week on higher holdings of Treasuries and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed.	$29.7 Billions
WEEK 20		Government	The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - increased $29.7 billion after gaining $7.4 billion the prior week. The boost was led by purchases of mortgage-backed securities which gained $28.9 billion. Treasuries rose $10.2 billion. Partially offsetting, "other assets" fell $11.0 billion.
16/MAY/2013	Thu	M2 Money Supply	M2 Weekly Change $5.2 Billions.	$5.2 Billions
WEEK 20		Money Supply	M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
17/MAY/2013	Fri	Fixed Mortgage Rates	Mortgage rates climbed for the second consecutive week, but the rate on the most popular type of mortgage remains lower than it was six weeks ago.	3.71%
WEEK 20		Interest Rates	The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 3.71%. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 10 basis points to 2.92%.
17/MAY/2013	Fri	Consumer Sentiment	Americans' confidence in the economy climbed in May to the highest level in almost six years as rising real estate values and record stock prices boosted household wealth.	83.7
WEEK 20		Consumer	The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 83.7, the highest since July 2007, from 76.4 in April 2013.
17/MAY/2013	Fri	Leading Indicators	The index of leading economic indicators surged 0.6% in April 2013 boosted by strength in housing permits. The gain points to rising economic momentum six months out.	0.6% M/M
WEEK 20		Business Actvity	A measure of the U.S. economy's future health rose in solidly in April, buoyed by a sharp rise in applications to build new homes and apartments.

? - Rating Explanation

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WEEK 20-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS				RATING	REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 20-2013
01. Interest Rates	1
02. Growth
03. Inflation	3				U.S. import prices decline 0.5% in Apri.
04. Employment		1
05. Real Estate	2	2
06. Manufacturing		2			The Empire State index fell more than 4 points
07. Consumer	1				Consumer Sentiment Index in U.S. Rose to 83.7 in May 2013.
08. Sales & Inventories	3	1	1		Sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly in April 2013
09. Business Activity	1	1
10. Government			1
11. Balance of Payments		1			Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries are steady
12. Money Supply			1
13. Banking System			1

REPORTS WEEK 20-2013	10	8	4
MARKET CORRELATION				RATING	MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 20 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil			1		Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas			1		If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe					Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China					If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.

TOTAL WEEK 20-2013	10	8	6		Week 20, 2013 has been rated ...

52 Weeks Calendar

52 Weeks Reports Category Rating

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WEEK 20-2013 ENDING MAY. 17

Reports Commentary

U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday, retreating from record highs, as investors mulled when the Federal Reserve may begin to scale back its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program. Better-than-expected data on retail-sales growth provided some support.

U.S. stocks rose for the week, setting a few records along the way. It was another week of gains that some say defies logic.

The Dow closed +60.00 points. Economic reality is irrelevant as long as there are central planners out there ready to print up new cash'as QE programs.

Rising home prices are beginning to create a virtuous cycle. With home prices now rising from exceptionally affordable levels, buyers are enticed into the market, both because prices are low, and ironically because home prices are rising.

The U.S. manufacturing sector is also improving because of the dramatic decline in the relative price of natural gas in the U.S.

Debt Ceiling

The Treasury Department on Friday will suspend sales of state and local government Treasury securities until further notice, the first action to avoid hitting the U.S. debt ceiling.

The debt ceiling is expected to be reached on May 18, but the Treasury had been expected to take steps like this one in order to keep paying bills.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said last week that the U.S. will be able to avoid the debt limit until Labor Day. The Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that the deadline could be as late as November.

Europe

French GDP was negative for the 2nd consecutive quarter. France slips into recession as first-quarter GDP falls 0.2% from fourth quarter

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

European Recession continues.
France slips into recession as first-quarter GDP falls 0.2% from fourth quarter
China growth forecasts being trimmed a notch.
Empire State Mfg -1.43 vs. +3.75 estimate.
Industrial Production -0.5% vs. -0.2% expectation and +0.3% previous reading.
Sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly in April 2013.
April 2013 PPI, producer inflation, was lower than expected.
The Empire State index fell more than 4 points.
Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries are steady.

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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:

U.S. Treasury Budget Biggest Surplus

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