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Week 39 -2013 | From Sep. 23 to Sep. 27, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 39-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 39-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
The CFNAI, national activity index turned positive in August 2013, indicating above-trend growth, according to data released by the Chicago Fed Monday. |
0.14
Level
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 |
Growth |
The national activity index rose to +0.14 from -0.43 in July 2013, while the three-month moving average edged up to -0.18 from -0.24 in July 2013. The index is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, and when the three-month average is below -0.7 there's an increasing chance a recession has begun. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
After seasonal adjustment, for the week ended 21 September, U.S. chain store sales decreased 1% from the previous decline of 1.6%; on a yearly basis, the sales grew 1.6% compared to 3.2% a week ago, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs reported. |
1.6%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The 1.6% is among the lowest of the year. The report cites across-the-board weakness from discount to department stores, from supermarkets to furniture stores. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Redbook index fell 0.4% on a monthly basis and advanced 3.6% over the last twelve months in the week ended on September 15, against previous prints at -0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. |
3.6%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Year-on-year sales in Redbook's sample are at plus 3.6 percent, up 2 tenths from the prior week. Redbook notes that falling temperatures are boosting demand for seasonal goods especially apparel. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
Home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1% in July 2013, the 18th straight monthly rise, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday. |
1.0% |
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Real Estate |
The FHFA index, calculated from mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, was up 8.8% from the same period of July 2012, and is now 9.6% below its April 2007 peak. |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
U.S. home prices increased 1.8% in July 2013, the smallest monthly gain since March 2013, as 15 of 20 cities tracked by a gauge from S&P/Case-Shiller saw slower growth, according to data released Tuesday. |
0.6% |
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Real Estate |
The rate of increase may have peaked due to rising mortgage rates may be hitting the housing market. However, on a year-over-year basis, home prices grew 12.4% in July 2013, the fastest annual pace since 2006. Home prices in July 2013 were about 21% below a 2006 peak. |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
Americans' confidence in the economy fell slightly in September 2013 from August 2013, as many became less optimistic about hiring and pay increases over the next six months. |
79.7
Level
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Consumer |
The Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dropped to 79.7 in September. That's down from August's reading of 81.8, which was slightly higher than previously estimated. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Mortgage rates fell sharply in the September 20 week while mortgage applications rose sharply. Purchase applications jumped 7.0% to their highest level since July 2013. |
5.5%
W/W
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Real Estate |
This marks back-to-back weekly gains and points to strength this month for underlying home sales. Refinancing applications, where volumes have been swinging widely this month, rose 5.0 percent. |
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Wed |
Durable Goods Orders |
Orders for durable goods rose 0.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted $224.9 billion after a revised 8.1% drop in July 2013, the U.S. Commerce Department said Wednesday. |
0.1% |
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Manufacturing |
Orders for durable goods bounced back in August 2013 as demand for autos surged, but bookings in other key segments of the U.S. manufacturing sector were mixed. |
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Wed |
New Home Sales |
Sales of new homes increased 7.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 421,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That comes after sales plunged 14.1% in July 2013 to a 390,000 annual rate. |
421K |
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Real Estate |
Americans stepped up purchases of new homes in August 2013 after cutting back in July 2013 , suggesting that higher mortgage rates are not yet slowing the housing recovery. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
A rise in imports fed a 2.6 million barrel build in oil inventories in the September 20 week to 358.3 million barrels. |
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Commodity |
Domestic production, which surpassed imports in the prior week for the first time in available data, were steady at 7.8 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose to 7.9 million barrels per day vs 7.6 million in the prior week. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 305,000 in the week ended Sept. 21, the Labor Department said Thursday. |
305K |
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Employment |
Economists had expected claims to jump to 327,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. A government official said Labor has been told by California that the state eliminated a backlog of claims that built up after computer-related processing delays. |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 2.5% on an annual rate between April 2013 and June 2013 according to the latest official measure of the country's economic health. |
2.5% |
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Growth |
The third and final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) from the Department of Commerce was unchanged from its last. But it was below economists' forecasts, which had been predicting a slight pickup in the pace of growth. |
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Thu |
Corporate Profits |
Corporate profits in the second quarter were revised down to $1.821 trillion from the initial estimate of $1.830 trillion and compared to $1.785 trillion in the first quarter. |
5.3% |
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Growth |
Profits in the second quarter increased an annualized 8.5% after slipping 2.6% in the first quarter. Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 5.3% versus 3.5% in the first quarter. |
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Thu |
Pending Home Sales Index |
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 1.6% in August 2013. Fewer Americans signed contracts in August 2013 to buy previously owned homes, a sign that rising mortgage rates may have slowed housing market momentum.
|
107.7 |
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Real Estate |
The index of pending home sales fell 1.6%, after a revised 1.4% decrease in July 2013 that was bigger than initially reported, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Economists forecast a 1% decline in the gauge from the month before. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas in storage rose 87 billion cubic feet in the September 20 week to 3,386 bcf. |
87bcf |
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Commodity |
From 46bcf to 87bcf |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the September 25 week, the Fed balance sheet grew $11.8 billion after jumping $60.2 billion the week before. The gain was led by a $9.9 billion increase in holdings of Treasuries. Mortgage-backed securities rose $2.2 billion. |
$11.8B |
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Government |
Total assets for the September 25 week stood at $3.734 trillion; Weekly Change $60.2 B $11.8 B |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $4.0 Billions from $-0.3 Billions revised to $-0.2 Billions. |
$4.0B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The U.S. Fed said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) dropped from 4.50% to 4.32%, the lowest since late July, in the week ending Sep 26.
|
4.32% |
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Interest Rates |
The 15-year FRM declined to 3.37% this week from 3.54%. Mortgage rates fell following the Federal Reserve announcement that it will maintain its bond buying stimulus. These low rates should somewhat offset the house price gains seen the last number of months and keep housing affordability elevated. |
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Mon |
Personal Income |
The rise in spending in August 2013 was aided by the biggest increase in worker earnings in six months. Personal income jumped 0.4% in August 2013. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase in consumer spending and a 0.4% rise in personal income. |
0.4% |
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Consumer |
The larger increase in incomes allowed Americans to salt away a bit more cash. The savings rate of Americans rose to 4.6% from 4.5%. The savings rate hasn't topped 5% since late last year, however. |
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Mon |
Consumer Spending/Real PCE |
Consumers opened up their wallets in August 2013 and spent more in July 2013 than previously reported, but the pace of growth in the U.S. remained on the softer side. |
0.3% |
|
|
Consumer |
Consumer spending rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month, marking the third-fastest increase of the year, the Commerce Department said Friday. And spending in July 2013 rose twice as fast as initially estimated 0.2% instead of 0.1%. |
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Mon |
Core PCE |
Inflation edged up 0.1% in August 2013 based on the latest reading from the personal consumption expenditure price index. The core rate, which omits food and energy, rose 0.2%. |
N/A |
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Inflation |
Both PCE indexes have risen 1.2% over the past 12 months, indicating that inflation remains contained. That gives the Federal Reserve the room to continue its a massive bond-buying program meant to stimulate the U.S. economy. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The final September reading for the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to 77.5 from 82.1 in August 2013. Economists had expected a final September 2013 level of 78, compared with a preliminary reading of 76.8. |
77.5 |
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Consumer |
UMich's report cited factors such as competition for jobs, concern about personal finances and unease over spending battles in Washington. |
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| WEEK 39-2013 ENDING SEP. 27 |
Reports Commentary
German Elections
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Party (CDU) won the most votes though falling short of a majority and will now form a coalition with one of the other three main parties, the Greens, the Social Democrats (SPD) and The Left.
Home sales
The rebound in sales could ease worries that higher mortgage rates have started to dampen sales. It coincided with the best month of sales for previously occupied homes in more than six years. And homebuilders remain more confident in the market than they've been in eight years.
Many economists say the housing recovery should withstand the recent rate increase. Mortgage rates are still quite low by historical standards. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.5 percent last week.
Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to National Association of Home Builders.
Durable Orders
On the economic front, durable goods orders rose more than expected in in August. And new home sales rose at a faster clip than anticipated last month.
The stronger than expected Durable Goods report was helping to reverse this negative trend Wednesday morning. Then at 1:30pm ET things went sour as investors misinterpreted a WalMart report about lower orders given inventory being too high.
Economic Growth
Recent data suggest economic growth may be slowing. Consumers spent more cautiously in August as their income barely grew. And higher interest rates are threatening to slow home sales, just as many markets are starting to recover.
The economy added 169,000 jobs in August, a modest gain but hardly enough to signal robust job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.3% from 7.4%. But the decline was mostly because more people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed.
China
Preliminary results from a monthly gauge of China's manufacturing activity, released Monday by HSBC, showed a jump to a six-month high in September, beating expectations. The "flash" version of the China manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, published by HSBC and Markit, rose to 51.2, compared to August's final result of 50.1. China manufacturing-index preliminary results show rise to 51.2 from 50.1: HSBC
Germany
German voters re-elected Angela Merkel as chancellor on Sunday, but the shape of her new government was still too close to call, reports said. Exit polls suggested Merkel's current coalition partner may not get enough votes for a place in parliament.
Consumer
Consumers are facing an economy that is growing is fits and starts. Employers are hiring, but too slowly to lead to a healthy drop in the unemployment rate. The housing market is also expanding, but faces headwinds from mortgage rates that have moved higher since May, though there was a recent decline. Squabbling in Washington over spending and funding the government could also depress consumers.
Government
The latest figures of GDP come as Treasury secretary Jack Lew warns of potentially devastating consequences from a fight in Washington over raising the US's debt ceiling. On Wednesday Lew warned Congress for the third time that the government might not be able to pay its bills after 17 October unless an agreement is reached.
The US hit its statutory borrowing limit of about $16.7tn on 19 May and has been using "extraordinary measures" to stretch the budget. But Lew has warned those measures will run out next month and the Treasury will be unable to meet close to a third of the $80m worth of payments it makes each month. |
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Fed Status Quo...and Now What? |
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