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Week 09 -2013 | From Feb. 25 to Mar. 01, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 09-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 09-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index |
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.32 in January 2013 from 0.25 in December2012. |
-0.32
M/M
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 |
Growth |
Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December 2012, and only two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in January 2013. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
Same-store sales firmed 0.1% last week with the year-on-year rate coming in at a solid plus 2.9% for the best rate since mid-January 2013. |
2.9%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The ICSC-Goldman store sales index was +2.9% year over year last week, up from +1.8% Y/Y the week prior. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Redbook store sales index was +2.7% year over year last week, down from +3.1% Y/Y the week prior. |
2.7%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Store sales in the U.S. were mixed yet again this week, as weather has been a very influential factor lately due to a negative effect of heavy weather which has tempered this month's sales. |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
The FHFA s house price index, which is calculated using home sales price information released by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rose 0.6% in December 2012. |
0.6%
M/M
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Real Estate |
U.S. house prices inched upward 5.8% Year to Year, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The December 2012 advance was led by the East South Central region, increasing 2.3%, with the Middle Atlantic region down 0.1%. |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
This is good news for the economy. U.S. home prices rose in December 2012, and saw the largest year-over-year gain since 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index |
0.9%
M/M |
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Real Estate |
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a nonseasonally adjusted 0.2% increase in December 2012, following a 0.1% decline in November 2012. After seasonal adjustment, home prices rose 0.9% in December 2012. |
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Tue |
New Home Sales |
U.S. new-home sales jumped in January 2013 from the previous month to the highest level since July 2008. |
437K |
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Real Estate |
The Commerce Department says new-home sales rose nearly 16% in January 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000. The percentage increase was the largest in nearly 20 years. |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
U.S. consumer confidence picked up much more strongly than expected in February 2013 as Americans shrugged off worries over fiscal policy and tax increases. |
69.6
Level
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Consumer |
The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes accelerated to 69.6 from a downwardly revised 58.4 in January 2013, handily topping economists' expectations for 61. It was the highest level since November 2012. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Composite seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both Refinance and Purchase, decreased -3.8% in Week 08, ended Feb 22. |
-3.8%
W/W
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Real Estate |
Purchase Applications declined -5.0% last week in a declinen that is not a positive indication for underlying home sales. The Refinance Applications decline as well, -3.0%. |
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Wed |
Durable Goods Orders |
U.S. durable-goods orders fall more than 5% in January 2013. Orders for durable goods in the US fell 5.2% in January 2013, the first fall in five months, as orders for aircraft plunged. |
-5.2%
M/M
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Manufacturing |
However, excluding transportation orders, which can be volatile, orders rose 1.9%, the highest rate since December 2011, said the Commerce Department. |
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Wed |
Pending Home Sales Index |
The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rose 4.5% last month to their highest level since February 2007, apart from a brief spike in April 2010, when homebuyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit that was about to expire. |
105.9
Level
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Real Estate |
Pending home sales rose 4.5% last month to 105.9. That's the highest since April 2010, when a home buyer's tax credit was about to expire. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
This week`s EIA Report showed us that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week. A rise in imports offset a rise in refineries runs to feed a 1.1 million barrel build in oil inventories last week. |
1.1M
Barrels
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Commodity |
At 377.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Jobless claims decreased by 22,000 to 344,000 in the holiday-shortened week that ended Feb. 23, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. |
344K
W/W |
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Employment |
The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped to the lowest level since June 2008 on Week 08, ending Feb. 22, 2013. |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
The Commerce Department's second estimate, (Preliminary), was that the economy had grown at an annualised 0.1%. The first estimate was a 0.1% contraction. |
0.1%
GDP
|
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|
Growth |
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the US in the last three months of 2012 has been revised from showing contraction to growth. The GDP couldn't even reach the economists low-ball expectation of +0.5%. However, GDP wasn't negative because the government spending cuts is coming, therefore, the GDP will surely be negative in Q1 2014. |
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Thu |
Chicago PMI |
A rise in new orders boosted the Chicago Business Barometer to its highest level since March 2012. The closely-watched gauge of the U.S. manufacturing sector, better known as the Chicago PMI, rose to a seasonally- adjusted 56.8 last month from 55.6 in January 2013. |
56.8
Level
|
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|
Manufacturing |
A reading above 50 signals expansion, and new orders, the most heavily weighted component, rose 2 points, to 60.2. Order backlogs advanced 4.9 points to 50.9, offsetting a small dip in the production gauge by 0.7 points to 60.2 and a downtick in employment of 0.3 to 55.7. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The EIA natural gas inventories for February 22, week 08, decreased by 171 BCF from a prior fall of 127 BCF; lower than forecasts of -124 BCF. |
-171
bcf
|
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage fell 171 billion cubic feet in the February 22, week 08, to 2,229 bcf. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday decreased $4.5 billions from a boost pf $20.9 billions the prior week, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
$-4.5B |
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Government |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion for the fifth week in a row as the central bank continued with its efforts to spur the economy through bond purchases. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-23.7 Billions. |
$-23.7B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 3.51% from 3.56% last week. That's near the 3.31% rate reached in November, the lowest on records dating to 1971 |
3.51% |
|
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Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage slipped to 2.76% from 2.77 last week. The record low is 2.63%. |
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Fri |
Personal Income |
Wages, personal income, are still not growing very fast. Incomes after taxes, adjusted for inflation, rose just 1.5% in 2012 after a 1.3% increase in 2011. |
-3.6% |
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|
Consumer |
And even those meager gains could be largely eaten up by the price at the pump if gasoline continue to advance. The average cost of a gallon of gas has jumped 14% since the beginning of the year. |
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Fri |
Consumer Spending Real PCE |
Worst income dip in 20 years doesn't stop spending. Consumers keep at it despite tax increase at start of year. Americans continued their spending ways despite an increase in their taxes and the biggest plunge in income in 20 years. |
0.2% |
|
|
Consumer |
Consumer spending advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said Friday. |
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Fri |
Core PCE |
The PCE price index was flat in January 2013, putting the 12-month increase at 1.2%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1% in January 2013 and is up 1.3% in the past year. |
N/A |
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|
Inflation |
Yet overall inflation is still relatively tame for January 2013. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment gauge rose to a final February 2013 reading of 77.6 the highest level since November 2012 from a final January 2013 reading of 73.8. |
77.6
M/M
|
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Consumer |
A reading of consumer sentiment rose in February 2013 to its highest level in three months on an improving stock markets and hopes for continued job gains. |
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Fri |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index climbed 1.1 points to 54.2%, coming in ahead of the 52.5% forecast and reaching the best level since June 2011. ISM reported that 15 out of the 18 industries it follows reported growth. |
54.2
M/M
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Manufacturing |
The manufacturing sector saw an acceleration in February 2013 to the best level in close to two years, according to a survey released Friday that points to a business sector not afraid Washington will step on its toes. |
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Fri |
Construction Spending |
Construction spending dropped 2.% to an annual rate of $883.3 billion, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That was the largest percentage drop since July 2011 and snapped nine months of gains. |
-2.1%
M/M
|
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Growth |
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in January 2013, recording its biggest decline in 1-1/2 years as both public and private outlays dropped, pointing to weak economic growth in the first quarter. |
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| WEEK 09-2013 ENDING MAR. 01 |
Reports Commentary
Steady job creation and near record-low mortgage rates are spurring more Americans to buy houses. At the same time, the number of previously occupied homes for sale is at a 13-year low. That shortage creates more demand for new homes.
Consumers last month had been concerned over the impact of Washington's deal on the "fiscal cliff" at the beginning of the year. While the full brunt of tax increases and spending cuts that were scheduled to go into effect was averted, taxes did rise for some Americans and the payroll deduction holiday came to an end, leaving consumers with less spending money.
Housing
This is good news for the economy. U.S. home prices rose in December 2012, and saw the largest year-over-year gain since 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a nonseasonally adjusted 0.2% increase in December 2012, following a 0.1% decline in November 2012. After seasonal adjustment, home prices rose 0.9% in December 2012.
U.S. new-home sales jumped in January 2013 from the previous month to the highest level since July 2008.
The Commerce Department says new-home sales rose nearly 16% in January 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000. The percentage increase was the largest in nearly 20 years.
Many builders are facing higher costs for building materials and having trouble obtaining financing for construction. Some also are facing a shortage of workers in markets where residential construction has picked up sharply, such as Texas and Arizona.
Though new homes represent only a fraction of the housing market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to statistics from the home builders.
Durable Goods
The latest batch of durable goods data revealed that orders for military aircraft dropped 63.8% in January, as the government tightened its defence spending, while orders for non-defence aircraft fell 34%.
The rise in pending home sales, and the underlying improvement in durable goods sales, add to evidence that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum.
To be sure about a Trend, several Economic reports must have been better than expected, which is clearly a good sign, but keep in mind that the market makes the news; the news does not make the market.
GDP
The GDP couldn't even reach the economists' low-ball expectation of +0.5%. However, GDP wasn't negative because the government spending cuts is coming, therefore, the GDP will surely be negative in Q1 2014.
The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector picked up to its fastest rate in over a year and a half in February as new orders continued to accelerate, while a separate report showed U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell.
ISM Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose to 54.2 from 53.1 in January, topping economists' forecasts for a pullback to 52.5. It was the highest level since June 2011.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- U.S. GDP: Revision takes economy into growth.
- Yet overall inflation is still relatively tame for January 2013.
- New Home Sales Soar; Best Reading in Four Years.
- U.S. durable-goods orders fall more than 5% in January 2013.
- Consumer Confidence and Sentiment jumps up in February 2013.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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U.S. Housing Data Improving |
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