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Week 12 -2013 | From Mar. 18 to Mar. 22, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 12-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 12-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Housing Market Index |
HMI Index, a gauge of confidence among homebuilders declined in March 2013 to the lowest level since October 2012, hurt by weaker views on current sales of single-family homes. |
44
Level |
|
 |
Real Estate |
The overall builder-confidence index decreased to 44 in March 2013 from 46 in February 2013 for a second month of declines. In addition to tight credit and below-price appraisals, home building is beginning to suffer growth pains as the infrastructure that supports it tries to re-establish itself. |
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Tue |
FOMC Meeting Begins |
The Fed said information since its last meeting suggests "a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year" though the central bank continued to see "downside risks to the economic outlook." |
N/A |
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|
Interest Rates |
The Fed stuck to its target of a federal funds rate between 0% and 0.25%, its program of buying $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of Treasury securities, and its goal of keeping rates this low at least as long as the unemployment rate is above 6.5% so long as it doesn't project inflation reaching 2.5%. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
U.S. store sales increased moderately this week as we grow closer to Easter holiday shopping. The report cites special strength at grocery stores, apparel stores, and discounters. |
2.3%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
The ICSC-Goldman store sales index increased from +1.8% year over year last week to +2.3% Y/Y this week. |
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Tue |
Housing Starts |
Construction on new U.S. homes nudged up in February 2013with modest gains for single-family residences and apartments, as longer-term trends signaled a housing market that continued to strengthen. |
917K |
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Real Estate |
Construction on new U.S. homes rose 0.8% in February 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000, the highest level since December 2012. Starts for single-family homes rose 0.5% in February 2013 to a rate of 618,000, the highest level since June 2008. |
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Tue |
Building Permits |
The government also reported Tuesday that building permits, a sign of future demand, rose 4.6% in February 2013 to a rate of 946,000, also hitting the highest level since June 2008. |
946K |
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|
Real Estate |
Building Permits for single-family homes rose 2.7% to a rate of 600,000 the highest level since June 2008. Building Permits for structures with at least five units hit 316,000 the highest level since July 2008. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Redbook store sales index increased from +2.7% year over year last week to +2.9% Y/Y this week. |
2.9%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
Retail sales held steady last week, at a moderate year-on-year plus 2.9% according to Redbook's same-store sales tally. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
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N/A |
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Banking System |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Mortgage applications decreased 7.1% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2013. |
-7.1%
W/W
|
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Real Estate |
The Refinance Index decreased 8% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 6% higher than the same week one year ago. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
This week`s EIA Report showed us that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. |
N/A |
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Commodity |
At 384 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
The Fed sees the jobless rate falling to a range between 7.3% and 7.5% this year, compared to 7.7% in February. The Fed modestly lowered GDP forecasts for 2013 to a range between 2.3% and 2.8% from the prior estimate of 2.3% to 3.0%. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
The Fed still sees growth north of 3% in 2014 and 2015. The inflation guidance for 2013 was trimmed to 1.3% to 1.7% from the December forecast of 1.3% to 2%. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting Forecast |
The Federal Reserve latest forecast still doesn't expect the unemployment rate to fall below the threshold for a rate hike until 2015, according to a summary of the central bank's latest projections released Wednesday |
0.25% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The Fed has said it would keep interest rates at ultra-low levels so long as the jobless rate was above 6.5%, unless inflation got in the way. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of people applying for new unemployment benefits edged up by 2,000 to 336,000 in the week ended March 16 but remained near a five-year low, the U.S. Labor Department said |
336K |
|
|
Employment |
The average of new claims over the past month, which irons out weekly volatility, dropped by 7,500 to 339,750, the lowest level since February 2008. Initial claims from two weeks ago, meanwhile, were revised up slightly to 334,000 from an original reading of 332,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level |
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Tue |
FHFA House Price Index |
Home prices climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in January 2013, and increased 6.5% from the same period in the prior year, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported Thursday. The data is compiled using only mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. |
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Real Estate |
The FHFA price index for January 2013 increased 0.6%, following a rise of 0.5% revised the prior month, December 2012. |
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Tue |
Existing Home Sales |
The National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales rose 0.8% in February 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million, hitting the highest level since November 2009. |
4.98M |
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|
Real Estate |
Existing-home sales rose in February 2013 to reach the highest rate in more than three years, another sign of a strengthening housing market, as inventories posted an unusually large gain in the month. |
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Tue |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Business among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region improved sharply in March 2013. The bank's business-conditions index climbed to 2.0% from negative 12.5 in February 2013. |
2.0
Level
|
|
|
Business Activity |
Readings above zero indicate that more companies are expanding their business instead of shrinking it. The Fed also reported that the index for new orders climbed to 0.5% in March 2013 from negative 7.8, the first positive reading in three months. |
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Tue |
Leading Indicators |
With 8 out of 10 indicators climbing, the Conference Board's leading economic index grew 0.5% in February 2013, marking the third straight month of gains. The gain was stronger than the 0.4% forecast, and the rise came after an upwardly revised January 2013 gain of 0.5%. |
0.5%
M/M
|
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|
Business Activity |
The U.S. economy is growing slowly now, and with this reading increases hope that it may pick up some momentum in the second half of the year. However, this latest report does not yet the capture the recent effects of sequestration, which could dampen the pickup in GDP. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Working gas in storage was 1,876 Bcf as of Friday, March 15, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 62 Bcf from the previous week. |
-62
bcf
|
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|
Commodity |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended March 15 fell by 65 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for a drop of 70 billion cubic feet. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday Mar 15 increased $41.5 billions from a gain of $56.6 billions the prior week, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
$41.5
Billions
|
|
|
Government |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet exceeded $3 trillion for the fifth week in a row as the central bank continued with its efforts to spur the economy through bond purchases. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $1.8 Billions. |
$1.8
Billions
|
|
|
Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 3.54% from 3.63% last week. |
3.54% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage slipped to 2.72% from 2.79 last week. The record low is 2.63%. U.S. mortgage rates fell as concern that Cyprus's debt crisis might worsen drove investors to the safety of the government bonds that guide home loans. |
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| WEEK 12-2013 ENDING MAR. 22 |
Reports Commentary
Keep in mind that Economic Numbers matter as long as they are affirmative of a trend.
U.S. stocks ended higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 SPX +0.02% snapping its first three-day losing run this year, after the Federal Reserve said its stimulus would continue.
The sequester as well as the elimination of the payroll-tax deduction, these factors are major fiscal drags on the economy, and the Fed is working with that in mind.
Other housing data released this week indicated a housing market that is growing stronger over the long term, despite some mixed recent indicators. Construction on new U.S. homes recently nudged up, and confidence among home builders declined. Read more about construction.Read more about builder confidence.
Employment
First, a review of where we are. Interest rates have been at near-zero levels since the recession. The Fed has bought about $3 trillion worth of mortgage-backed and Treasury securities.
There have been job gains, and the unemployment rate has come down. But not enough to Bernane. The Fed say the jobless rate has to get below 6.5% before they'll even think about lifting interest rates.
Around 200,000 jobs were added in November, December, January, and now, just recently, in February. We haven't seen this strong of a flow in jobs data in over five years. Both ADP jobs data and the Federal government payroll data have showed strength. Unemployment claims were also recently reported at a five-year low.
Europe
Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (the ECB), recently kept his short-term policy rate fixed at 0.75%.
Inflation
So far, inflation hasn't overheated. This is the central bank's preferred measure of inflation (and yes, it includes food and gas), and it's well below the Fed's 2% target.
It's not just Bernanke who thinks Fed policy is going to be easy for some time. Two-thirds of the Fed's members (including those who don't have a vote this year) don't expect a rate hike for another two years. Now, the Fed may stop bond purchases before that most economists expect the rate of bond purchases to slow if not stop sometime this year.
Recently, WTI Crude Oil fell to about $90 from close to $98 a barrel. In other words, we've witnessed a nearly 10% drop in oil prices over the last month. The oil markets may be pricing in the passing of Hugo Chavez.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- Fed sticks to 6.5% jobless rate forecast by 2015.
- The number of people applying for new unemployment benefits edged up by 2,000.
- February home construction rises modestly. Permits reach best level since June 2008.
- U.S. store sales increased moderately this week.
- Philly Fed index moves into expansionary territory.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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U.S. Current Account |
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