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Week 18 -2013 | From Apr. 29 to May. 03, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 18-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 18-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Personal Income |
Personal income for March 2013 came in a little softer than expected; rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% while spending posted marginally higher. |
0.2%
M/M
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 |
Consumer |
Inventories also soared to an estimated $50.3 billion after a scant $13.3 billion increase in the prior quarter, but that buildup is probably unsustainable. |
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Mon |
Consumer Spending/Real PCE |
Consumer spending - the motor of the U.S. economy - rose 3.2% to mark the sharpest gain since the end of 2010, though some of the increase was the result of higher oil prices. |
0.2%
M/M |
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Consumer |
U.S. consumer spending rises 0.2% in March 2013. Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.2% in March 2013 to mark the smallest increase since December, providing more evidence that the economy has slowed. |
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Mon |
Core PCE |
The core PCE price index was unchanged after a 0.1% rise in Februaru 2013. The median forecast was for a 0.1% rise. |
0.0%
M/M
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Inflation |
Year-on-year, headline prices were up 1.0% in March 2013 versus 1.3% in February 2013. The core was up 1.1%, compared to 1.3% the month before. |
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Wed |
Pending Home Sales Index |
Pending sales of homes rose 1.5% in March 2013, reversing February's decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. The pending-home-sales index increased to 105.7 in March from 104.1 in February, and was up 7% from March 2012. |
1.5%
M/M
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Real Estate |
The pending-home-sales index increased to 105.7 in March 2013 from 104.1 in February 23013, and was up 7% from March 2012. Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply. |
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Tue |
FOMC Meeting #3 Begins |
The Federal Open Market Committee will meets for the third time this year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings which are eight per year.
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
Chain-store sales picked up a little steam last week, according to ICSC-Goldman whose same-store sales index is up 0.4%. |
2.6%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
The year-on-year rate, at plus 2.6%, is up 7 tenths for the best rate since early February 2013. However, grocery sales slowed sharply last week and it warns that unseasonably cold weather continues to hold down demand for spring apparel. |
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Tue |
Employment Cost Index |
Employment expenses in the U.S. grew at a slower pace in the first quarter, signaling the job market will not contribute to inflation. The smallest gain in benefit costs on record may be partly influenced by an error in the data for sales and office workers, according to the report.
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0.3%
Q/Q
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Inflation |
The employment cost index increased 0.3%, the smallest gain since the third quarter of 2011 and less than the median estimate, following a revised 0.4% gain in the prior quarter, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Chain-store sales improved last week. Redbook whose same-store sales index is at a year-on-year plus 2.8%, up 1 full percentage point in the week for the strongest rate of the month. |
2.8%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The 2.8% gain isn't enough to give much help to April 2013 as a whole, at least based on Redbook's month-to-month comparison with March 2013 which shows a deep 2.5% decline. |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
The pace of home price increases continued to accelerate in February 2013, according to a reading Tuesday that showed the biggest gain since near the height of the housing bubble.
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1.2%
M/M
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Real Estate |
The S&P Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major markets posted a 9.3% rise over the last 12 months. That's up from the 8.1% rise in January 2013. It was the biggest 12-month gain in the index since May 2006, which was just one month after the index showed record-high home prices. |
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Tue |
Chicago PMI |
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index which came out as downright recessionary. Remember that the PMI has previously been the lone bellwether of regional strength, but in April 2013 the index fell to 49.0 in from 52.5 in March 2013. |
49.0
Level |
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|
Manufacturing |
This is a low that this index has not seen for three and a half years, and all business activities measured showed weakness in April. Five of the seven components are now in contraction. And this is the reading had previously shown strength. |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
Consumer confidence rebounded in April 2013 as Americans felt better about the outlook for the economy and their income prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday. |
68.1
Level
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Consumer |
The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 68.1 from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March 2013. March 2013 was originally reported as 59.7. The expectations index gained to 73.3 from 63.7, while the present situation index improved to 60.4 from 59.2. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The purchase index, which has been trending higher, moved off recovery highs with a 1.4% dip in the April 26 week. Rates moved lower in the week with the average 30-year fixed mortgage down 5 basis points to 3.60% for the lowest rate since December 2012. |
1.8%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The refinance index, which has been moving sideways, rose 3.0% in the week and is at its highest level since January 2013. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
ADP Employment Report |
ADP: U.S. adds 119,000 private-sector jobs in April 2013, fewer than expected. On Wednesday, ADP revised March's private-job gain to 131,000. |
119,000
Jobs
|
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|
Employment |
Private-sector employment growth slowed down in April 2013, as the economy gained 119,000 jobs, Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday morning. |
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Mon |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
Manufacturing growth remained positive in the United States in April 2013, but only barely, according to the recent report from the Institute of Supply Management. |
50.7
Level
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Manufacturing |
The ISM Manufacturing (APR) survey showed that the index increased further into expansion territory at 50.7 from 50.6 in March 2013, bringing forth another piece of weak economic data about the US economy.
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Wed |
Construction Spending |
Construction spending tumbled in March 2013, shedding 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual level of $856.7 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Spending in March 2013 was 4.8% higher than the same period of 2012. |
-1.7%
M/M
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Growth |
Despite a solid 0.7% advance in residential construction, nonresidential construction on projects like offices and health-care facilities dropped 2.9% on the month. February's growth rate was revised higher to show 1.5% advance instead of a 1.2% gain, but it was at a lower level, reflecting a downward revision to January's levels. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil supplies hit record highs last week, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released today. |
6.7M
Barrels
|
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Commodity |
Crude oil inventories jumped 6.7 million barrels to 395.3 million barrels total for the week ending April 26. After rising 0.9 million barrels the previous week, this newest reading represents the highest crude oil inventory level ever. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting #3 Day 2 |
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its targeted interest rate and its bond purchase program the same, as the central bank for the first time formally stated that it could increase or decrease bond buying from the current pace "as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had communicated the central bank could adjust the pace at his last press conference, but that wasn't previously part of the statement. Fed keeps $85 billion-a-month bond-buying plan in place. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Wednesday wasn’t much different than the FOMCs recent announcements: nothing changed. The money printing, counterfeiting, conjuring of monies out-of-thin-air will continue. Actually, there was a minor change in its announcement that included this gem: The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The jobless claims number is out and it's good. Initial claims of 324K is far better than the expected 345K. It's also a nice drop from last month. |
342K |
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|
Employment |
Generally the data has been mediocre lately, but the lack of weakness on the weekly initial jobless claims front is really nice to see. This is the best weekly number since January 2008. |
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Thu |
U.S. Trade Balance |
The U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected in March 2013 as imports recorded their biggest drop since 2009, the latest sign of slowing domestic demand. |
$-38.8
Billions
|
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|
Balance of Payments |
The Commerce Department said on Thursday the trade gap narrowed 11.0% to $38.8 billion - the second smallest since January 2010.F ebruary's shortfall on the trade balance was revised to $43.6 billion from the previously reported $43.0 billion. |
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Thu |
Productivy and Costs |
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported 0.7% annualized growth in labor productivity for the first quarter of 2013. After a decline of 1.7% (annualized) in the fourth quarter of 2012, this modest rebound in labor productivity is still well below the longer term trend of 2-2.5%. |
0.7%
Q/Q
|
|
|
Business Activity |
This small productivity dividend will do little to keep stock prices near their current highs or positively impact profit outlooks. It also does not provide much incentive to businesses and investors to green light some new investment projects. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today reported that the U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 43 billion cubic feet last week, substantially above the expected range for a build of about 28 billion cubic feet anticipated by analysts. |
43
Bcf
|
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|
Commodity |
Natural gas futures prices were down about 1% in advance of the EIA's report, at around $4.28 per million BTUs, but slipped to around $4.16 immediately following the EIA report. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet contracted in the latest week on higher holdings of Treasuries and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed. |
$-1.5B |
|
|
Government |
The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - slipped $1.5 billion after expanding $23.5 billion the week before. The decrease was led by a $14.5 billion in fall mortgage-backed securities. Notably offsetting was an $11.8 billion increase in holdings of Treasuries. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-49.6 Billions. |
$-49.6B |
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|
Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The most popular mortgage, the 30-year fixed rate, came in at 3.35%, a drop of 0.05%age point and only 0.04 percentage point above its record low set the week of November 21, 2012. |
3.35% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to new record of 2.56% in the latest week from a record low of 2.61% in the prior week. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April 2013, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. |
7.5%
Rate
|
|
|
Employment |
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +268,000 to +332,000, and the change for March was revised from +88,000 to +138,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February 2013 and March 2013 combined were 114,000 higher than previously reported. |
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Fri |
Factory Orders |
Friday’s other economic reports proved weaker than expected, with factory orders down 4% in March 2013 and a gauge of the nation’s services sector expanding in April 2013, but at a softer-than-anticipated pace. |
-4.0%
M/M
|
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|
Manufacturing |
New orders for factory goods recorded their biggest drop in seven months in March 2013, but a gauge of planned business spending rose slightly, suggesting businesses are continuing to spend despite a slowdown in factory activity |
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Fri |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
April ISM services index falls to 53.1%. U.S. Treasuries briefly trimmed losses on Friday after the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for April 2013 came in slightly weaker than forecast, but showed the sector still expanded. |
53.1
Level
|
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|
Business Actvity |
The ISM's non-manufacturing sample reported solid but slowing conditions in April 2013 with the index at 53.1 vs March's 54.4. The Report shows healthy indications for order growth led by a 54.5 level for new orders. |
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| WEEK 18-2013 ENDING MAY. 03 |
Reports Commentary
The economy has averaged around 2% growth since the end of the Great Recession. So you would think there would be more applause for the +2.5% reading for Q1 on Friday.
Interestingly, investors saw the early dip Friday as another buying opportunity. Likely they want to reserve judgment for the big economic reports on tap for this week. The fireworks start Wednesday with ADP Employment and ISM Mfg. Then Friday brings a grand finale with Government Employment and ISM Services.
U.S. home-price gains from year-earlier month strongest since 2006. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index rose 0.3% in February and was up 9.3% from the same period in the prior year, which is the largest year-over-year growth since May 2006.
February's monthly growth was the largest since August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 1.2% in February. All 20 cities saw year-over-year gains in February, with faster growth in 16 cities.
Apple Inc. priced a supersized $17 billion corporate bond deal Tuesday, the largest ever for a nonfinancial U.S. corporate issuer.
Gold's April loss is steepest in 16 months. The S&P 500's rise above 1,600 comes 13 years after the S&P 500 first closed above 1,500, a landmark hit in March 2000, near the end of the dot-com bubble.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond trimmed a steep loss by 4/32 and the 10-year Treasury note briefly trimmed its loss by 2/32.Prices fell in early trading after the government reported stronger-than-forecast job growth in April and upward revisions to job growth figures previously reported for February and March.
After the brief uptick, selling resumed in the Treasury market, allowing yields, which move opposite to prices, to score their biggest one-day rise since January.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April 2013, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.
U.S. to pay off debt for first time in six years
The U.S. Treasury expects to pay off $35 billion of debt in the third fiscal quarter, compared to an earlier projection, given in February, that it would have to borrow $103 billion, the government said Monday. This will be the first quarter that Treasury has paid off debt since April - June 2007
Europe
The European Central Bank said on Thursday it decided to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, as expected.
Following the announcement, the euro EURUSD +0.0438% traded at $1.3178 compared to $1.3149 before the decision.
ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his monthly news conference in Bratislava, Slovakia, starting at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- March construction spending tumbles 1.7%
- Pending home sales rise 1.5% in March
- ISM manufacturing index falls to 50.7 in April; forecast was 50.8
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April 2013,
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Why the S&P is doing so well and the economy not |
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IMPORTANT NOTE: In an effort to comply with all applicable rules, regulations and disclosures please be so kind and read the "General Disclosure" below: |
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