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Week 45 -2013 | From Nov. 04 to Nov. 08, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 45-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 45-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Factory Orders |
Factory orders jumped 1.7% in September 2013 to $490.8 billion, the Commerce Department said Monday. The agency also revealed for the first time that August 2013 orders fell 0.1% -- that release was shelved due to the government shutdown. |
-0.1% |
|
 |
Manufacturing |
Shipments rose 0.1% in September and rose 0.2% in August 2013 . The September rise in orders was expected after a big increase in Boeing orders, and orders excluding transportation fell 0.2%. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 0.6% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. |
1.9%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
"Business improved for drug stores, department stores, wholesale clubs and furniture stores while it was weaker for grocery stores, apparel stores, discounters, dollar stores and electronics stores," said Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
National chain-store sales dropped 1.2% in October from September, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday. The index's decrease compared with a target of a 1% decline. |
3.8%
Y/Y |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
The Johnson Redbook Sales Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period increased 3.4% from a year earlier, missing the target for 3.6% growth. Sales for the week were up 3.8% year-to-year. |
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Tue |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
Despite the 16-day government shutdown, the U.S. non-manufacturing sector grew in October 2013 at a better-than-expected pace, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management. Business activity and production and employment indices all grew significantly. |
55.4 |
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Business Activity |
The ISM reported the non-manufacturing index rose to 55.4 from 54.4 in September 2013, surpassing the economists consensus estimate of 54. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home loans slipped in the latest week, although a drop in the previous week was revised to a smaller fall than previously reported, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. The index fell a revised 2.8% in the previous week. That drop had previously been reported at 7%. |
-2.8%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 1.8% in the week ended Nov. 8. |
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Wed |
Leading Indicators |
The index of leading economic indicators points to strong momentum for the economy going into the government shutdown, up 0.7% for a second straight month in September 2103. |
0.7%
M/M
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Business Activity |
Strength remains centered in financial components where the yield curve component, as it has all recovery, appears to be skewing the composite higher. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
Strong domestic production and a decline in refinery demand offset a dip in imports as oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels in the November 1 week to 385.4 million for a 7th straight weekly build. |
1.6M
Barrels
|
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Commodity |
Domestic oil production, at 7.9 million barrels per day, beat out imports, at 7.2 million, for a 3rd straight week. Refineries, operating at 86.8 percent of capacity, have been easing back on production for nearly 2 months.
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Today's jobless claims report showed a decline for initial unemployment claims and a slight increase to continued unemployment claims, as seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend below the closely watched 400K level. |
336K |
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Employment |
Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims declined by 9,000 to 336,000, from 345,000 for the prior week. Seasonally adjusted continued claims declined by 8,000 to 2.868 million, resulting in an insured unemployment rate of 2.2%. |
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Thu |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
Gross domestic product rose at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, led by the biggest increase in inventories in more than a year as household purchases and business investment slowed, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. |
2.8% |
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Growth |
For Q3-Advance GDP the median forecast of economists called for a 2% advance. Consumer spending climbed 1.5%, the smallest increase since 2011. |
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Tue |
Consumer Credit |
Consumer credit in the U.S. rose more than projected in September 2013 as borrowing for car purchases and education climbed. |
$13.7B |
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Consumer |
The $13.7 billion increase in credit followed a revised $14.2 billion advance in August 2013 that was larger than previously estimated, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Non-revolving debt, which includes financing for college tuition and autos, rose the most in three months. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Prior 38 bcf Actual 35 bcf. |
35 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 35 billion cubic feet in the November 1 week to 3,814 bcf. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the November 6 week, the Fed balance sheet expanded $8.2 billion after growing $4.4 the prior period. The increase was led by a $7.8 billion gain in Treasuries. |
$8.2B |
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Government |
Total assets for the November 6 week were $3.852 trillion. Reserve Bank credit for the November 6 week increased $7.6 billion, following a rise of $12.9 billion the week before. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-7.8 Billions from $55.9 Billions revised to $55.6 Billions. |
$-7.8B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage rates rose as investors await the October employment report that is scheduled to be released this week. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.16%. |
4.16% |
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Interest Rates |
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.27%. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The rates, though, are at their lowest levels in four months. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. |
7.3% |
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|
Employment |
Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care. |
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Fri |
Personal Income |
A plus is a second solid gain for personal income, up 0.5% for a second straight month. Growth in wages and salaries did slow 1 tenth but still came in at respectable 0.4%. |
0.5% |
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Consumer |
Personal income increased $67.4 billion, or 0.5%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $64.8 billion, or 0.5%, in September 2013, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. |
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Fri |
Consumer Spending/Real PCE |
Overall consumer spending slowed a slowed a bit as expected at the end of the third quarter, to plus 0.2% in September 2013 following a 0.3% rise in August 2013. |
0.2% |
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Consumer |
Weakness was in durable goods which offset gains for nondurable goods and services. This is crucial to the overall health of the U.S. economy, as consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the nation's economic output. |
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Fri |
Core PCE |
Inflation readings are soft with both the price index and core index up only 1 tenth. Personal consumption expenditures for the period increased 0.2%, down slightly from the 0.3% advance registered in the preceding month. |
0.1% |
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Inflation |
The year-on-year rate for the price index is only plus 0.9% with core year-on-year rate at plus 1.2%, both well below the Fed's goal of 2%. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
Consumer sentiment continues to turn lower, to 72.0 for the early November reading vs 73.2 for final October 2013 and vs 75.2 in the early October 2013 reading. |
72.0
Level |
|
|
Consumer |
Today's result is well below our consensus for 75.0 and is the 7th straight dip going through both early and final readings back to final July 2013.
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| WEEK 45-2013 ENDING NOV. 08 |
Reports Commentary
As the market pushes to new highs, technical strategists are suddenly sounding a lot more bearish than other market pundits, who rely more on fundamentals.
Many analysts say improving data like Friday's October jobs report means the market will continue to move higher.
So far this year, the market has had three significant selloffs May, August and September. Before each pull back, sentiment was too high and coincided with prices and momentum hitting new highs, said Mark Newton, chief technical analyst at Greywolf Execution Partners. The S&P 500 on Monday was trading close to its closing high of 1,771.94.
As stocks become more expensive, investors may see the approaching year end as a time to take some profits, capturing some of the hefty gains so far this year, said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. The S&P 500 is up 24 percent, and small caps are up even more.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Can Stocks Hold or Extend these Highs? |
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