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Week 33 -2013 | From Aug. 12 to Aug. 16, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 33-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 33-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Treasury Budget |
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $97.6 billion in July 2013, which was $28 billion larger than the gap between spending and revenues in July 2012. But the comparison is distorted by quirks in the data for both years. Without those quirks, the deficit for July 2013 would have been $105 billion, about the same as the adjusted deficit for July 2012, Treasury estimated. |
$-97.6
Billions
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 |
Government |
Including the July 2013 deficit, the funding gap for the first 10 months of the 2013 fiscal year totaled $607 billion, down 38% from the same period a year ago. The White House has projected an annual deficit of $759 billion for this fiscal year, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in 2009. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged down 0.2% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as consumers shifted their spending towards necessities. |
2.6%
Y/Y
|
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Sales and Inventories |
Aggregate chain store sales slipped a tad over this past week as some shifts in consumer spending occurred. ICSC expects August industry sales will increase 4.5% to 5%.On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 2.6%.
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Tue |
Retail Sales |
U.S. consumers spent cautiously in July 2013 , a sign that the economy remains weak after a lackluster spring. The report contained some bright spots: Sales were still 5.4% higher from a year ago, with consumers stepping up spending on meals, clothing and sporting goods. Department-store sales grew at the fastest pace in more than a year. |
0.2%
M/M |
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Sales and Inventories |
Overall retail sales rose 0.2% in July 2013 from a month earlier, a smaller increase than June's 0.6% rise, the Commerce Department reported. The slower pace in sales reflected a drop in purchases of cars, furniture and electronics. Excluding autos, overall sales rose 0.5% in July 2013 from June 2013. |
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Tue |
Import and Export Prices |
There was a petroleum effect for import prices, at plus 3.2%, but it failed to lift overall prices much at all. Excluding petroleum, which is a key reading watched by policy makers, import prices fell 0.5% in what will raise further concern among the Federal Reserve doves that inflation is too low. |
1.0%
Y/Y |
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Inflation |
Year-on-year, total import prices are up only 1.0%. Export prices tell the same story with the year-on-year rate at plus 0.4%. Here, agriculture is the big wildcard excluding which year-on-year export prices are unchanged. Agricultural prices slipped 0.3% in the month. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Year-on-year rates of sales growth are ticking higher so far in August 2013 based on both ICSC-Goldman, which was released earlier this morning, and now on Redbook whose plus 3.7% rate lifts its 4-week average by 2 tenths to 3.4%. This is the highest average since April last year. |
3.7%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook attributes the week's strength to back-to-school tax holidays in a number of states, but it stresses that it's too early to judge the strength of back-to-school demand. |
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Tue |
Business Inventories |
Inventories at U.S. businesses were flat in June 2013 and firms outside the auto sector cut back on restocking, which might weigh against estimates for economic growth in the second quarter. |
0.0%
M/M |
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Sales and Inventories |
Overall inventories were unchanged during the month, the Commerce Department reported. Economists had forecast overall inventories to rise 0.2% in June 2013. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home loans fell last week to their lowest level in more than a month despite a slight decline in interest rates, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. |
-4.7%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, slipped 4.7% in the week ended Aug 9. That was the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2013. |
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Wed |
Producer Price Index |
The Labor Department said on Wednesday a drop in natural gas and gasoline costs held back its seasonally adjusted producer price index. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase. |
0.0%
M/M
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Inflation |
U.S. producer prices were flat in July 2013 and pointed to very little inflationary pressure in the economy, which could add to worries at the U.S. Federal Reserve that inflation is running too low. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil supplies fell 2.8 million barrels (0.8%) for the week ending Aug. 9, 2013. While imports remained almost unchanged over the most recent week, refinery inputs dropped around 282,000 barrels per day (bbpd) below last week's average. |
-2.8M
Barrels
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Commodity |
After decreasing 1.3 million barrels the previous week, this latest report puts inventories down for three of the last four weeks and 1.5% below year-ago levels. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 320,000, the fewest since October 2007 a sign of dwindling layoffs and steady if modest job growth. |
320K |
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Employment |
The Labor Department said Thursday that the less volatile four-week average fell 4,000 to 332,000, the fewest since November 2007 and the fifth straight decline. |
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Thu |
Consumer Price Index |
The Labor Department says the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July 2013, after a 0.5% gain in June 2013. Gas prices rose only 1% last month, after jumping 6.3% in June 2013. In the past 12 months, the index has increased 2%. |
0.2%
M/M |
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Inflation |
U.S. consumer prices rose slightly last month as gas costs increased at a slower pace. Overall, the figures showed that inflation remains mild.
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Thu |
Empire State Mfg Survey |
The August 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved modestly for a third consecutive month. The Empire State general conditions index eased to 8.24 in August 2013 from 9.46 in July 2013. |
8.24 |
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Manufacturing |
The general business conditions index, at 8.2, was little changed from last month. The new orders index slipped four points to 0.3 and the shipments index fell seven points to 1.5, suggesting that both orders and shipments were flat. |
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Thu |
Treasury Intal Capital |
Foreigners have been selling U.S. securities this year and especially so in June 2013. Net purchases of long-term securities show a very heavy outflow of $66.9 billion in the month vs a revised outflow of $27.0 billion in the prior month to extend outflows going all the way back to February. |
$-66.9B |
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Balance of Payments |
Foreign accounts were net sellers of $77.8 billion of U.S. securities in the month, which is very heavy, while U.S. accounts, which had been buyers of foreign securities in prior months, turned into sellers in the month, at a net $11.0 billion. |
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Thu |
Industrial Production |
U.S. industrial production was unchanged in July 2013 as a decline in manufacturing output and utilities counteracted an uptick in mining activity.
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0.0%
M/M |
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Manufacturing |
Output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities held steady last month after a revised 0.2% increase in June 2013, the Federal Reserve reported. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase in July 2013. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Survey dropped to 9.3 in July 2103 from 19.8 in June 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia informed. Analysts expected much less decline to 15. |
9.3
Level |
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|
Business Activity |
The Philly Fed report shows slowing with the general business conditions index at 9.3 vs July's 19.8. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly contracted in August 2013 as new orders retreated and factories cut back on employment and hours. |
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Thu |
Housing Market Index |
The U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 59 in August, from 56 in July 2013, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged. |
59
Level |
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Real Estate |
The housing market index rose another 3 points to 59 for its highest reading since the really big bubble days of 2005. |
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Thu |
E-Commerce Sales |
E-commerce, unsurprisingly, continues to grab an increasingly larger share of total retail sales. E-commerce sales rose a quarterly 4.9% in the second quarter vs a sharply upward revised 3.7% rise in the first quarter. |
4.9% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Year-on-year, e-commerce sales rose a whopping 18.4% vs the prior quarter's pace of plus 16.4%. E-commerce as a share of total retail sales is at a new record of 5.8%, up 3 tenths from the first quarter. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a larger-than-expected rise in natural gas supplies on account of mild seasonal weather that reduces the need for power to run air conditioners. |
65
bcf |
|
|
Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 65 billion cubic feet in the August 9 week to 3,006 bcf. Supplies jumped by 96 billion cubic feet the previous week. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet grew in the latest week on larger holdings of U.S. Treasuries, Fed data released on Thursday showed. This week $10.7B from $15.1B last week. |
$10.7
Billions
|
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|
Government |
The Fed's balance sheet, which is a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system, stood at $3.367 trillion on June 12, compared to $3.357 trillion on June 5. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $21.6 Billions from $16.4 Billions revised to $16.3 Billions. |
$21.6
Billions |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year fixed-rate average held steady at 4.4% with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from a week ago. It was up from 3.62% a year ago. Since rising to a two-year high of 4.51% in mid-July, the 30-year fixed rate has hovered between 4.31% and 4.4%.
|
4.40% |
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|
Interest Rates |
The 15-year fixed-rate average nudged up to 3.44% with an average 0.6 point. It was up from 3.43% a week ago but down from 2.88% a year ago. The 15-year fixed rate has remained above 3% since early June 2013. |
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Fri |
Housing Starts |
The Commerce Department said on Friday that housing starts increased 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 896,000 units. June's starts were revised up to show a 846,000-unit pace instead of the previously reported 836,000 units. |
896K |
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Real Estate |
U.S. housing starts for future home construction rose less than expected in July 2013, suggesting that higher mortgage rates could be slowing the housing market's momentum. |
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Fri |
Building Permits |
Permits to build homes rose 2.7% in July 2013 to a 943,000-unit pace. Economists had expected permits to rise to a 945,000-unit pace. |
943K |
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|
Real Estate |
U.S. housing Permits for future home construction rose less than expected in July 2013, suggesting that higher mortgage rates could be slowing the housing market's momentum. |
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Fri |
Productivity and Costs |
The measure of employee output per hour increased at a 0.9% annualized rate, after a 1.7% decline in the prior three months, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. |
0.9% |
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Business Actvity |
Productivity in U.S. Rises Above Forecast as Output Grows. Expenses per worker rose at a 1.4% rate, greater than estimated. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment slipped to 80.0 from 85.1 in July 2013, the highest since July 2007. |
80.0
Level |
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Consumer |
U.S. consumers, bracing for higher interest rates and slightly slower economic growth, were a bit less optimistic in August 2013 as sentiment retreated from last month's six-year high. |
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| WEEK 33-2013 ENDING AUG. 17 |
Reports Commentary
U.S. business inventories flat, could weigh on second-quarter GDP.
Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. Retail inventories excluding autos - which go into the calculation of GDP - decreased 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in May.
Inventories were down in most types of establishments, from clothing and food stores to department stores.
Businesses are being cautious about restocking against the backdrop of lackluster domestic demand. The report suggested inventories might have provided less of a boost to second quarter economic growth than initially estimated.
The government last month gave an early estimate for gross domestic product, which showed growth at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the April-June period.
Business sales increased 0.2 percent in June. At June's sales pace, it would take 1.29 months for businesses to clear shelves, unchanged from May.
Gold
The price of gold fell 23 percent during the second quarter, highlighted by a record two-day $225 drop on April 12 and April 15, as a better overall global economic outlook hit gold's appeal as a hedge.
Many traders said that gold's free fall to a three-year low at $1,180 an ounce on the last day of June was a result of forced selling by funds as they met client redemption requests.
However, that could also suggest that funds are done or close to finish selling their gold, indicating that resurgent buying could lift bullion prices.
Bonds
Stronger economic data and the idea that the Fed will slow down its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases has sent rates higher, to 2.72 percent Wednesday, just under its recent high. The Dow was off 113 at 15,337, and the S&P 500 was off 8 at 1685.
Kleintop also believes stocks are beginning to price in the Fed's pullback. "It's a little bit of a buyers' strike ahead of the Fed," he said, adding when the Fed does say it will act, stocks could sell off. "It depends how much we react ahead of time. I do think it's a five to 10 percent move in the stock market to the downside it's not just about the Fed. It's the fact we're also going to get into the debt ceiling debate, just as Congress gets back."
Nearly 54 months from the March 2009 lows. The average bull market has lasted 43 months, the longest 56 and 60 months over the last decade. (It's still a bull case say these market technicals.)
Interst Rates
Interest rates began a sharp rise in late May after the Federal Reserve signaled it could begin scaling back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases by the end of the year.
Those purchases have helped keep mortgage rates low. Cuts to the purchases could sap the strength of the housing recovery.
Refinancing demand also fell, with the refinance index down 4.4 percent to 2,145.3. The refinance share of total mortgage activity was unchanged at 63 percent.
A steady fall in the unemployment rate appears to have the Fed nearly ready to begin unwinding a bond-buying stimulus program.
Many economists expect the Fed will begin reducing its monthly bond purchases in September. This has led to an increase in interest rates for home mortgages, although another report on Wednesday showed mortgage rates fell slightly last week.
Mortgage Rates
Part of it has to do with interest rates. Since lows of 3.3% in November of last year, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have been climbing. They really started to take off in May, when the market started getting concerned that the Federal Reserve Bank would begin tapering its $85 billion bond-buying program. That policy, known as quantitative easing, helped keep interest rates near historic lows.
Mortgage rates are now at 4.4%. That's still very low, even compared to the height of the real estate bubble. However, that raises monthly payments, putting some homes more out of the reach of buyers.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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ISM's Survey Beat Expectations |
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