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Week 44 -2013 | From Oct. 28 to Nov. 01, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 44-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 44-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Industrial Production |
Industrial production in September 2013 had a solid increase for the second straight month, but economists were disappointed with the details of the report. |
0.6%
M/M
|
|
 |
Manufacturing |
Industrial production rose 0.6% in September 2013, the Federal Reserve reported. This is the biggest monthly gain in seven months. |
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Mon |
Pending Home Sales Index |
Pending home sales declined for the fourth consecutive month in September 2013, as higher mortgage interest rates and higher home prices curbed buying power, according to the National Association of Realtors. |
101.6 |
|
|
Real Estate |
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 5.6% to 101.6 in September 2013 from a downwardly revised 107.6 in August 2013, and is 1.2% below September 2012 when it was 102.8. |
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Tue |
FOMC Meeting #7 Begins |
FOMC Meeting #7 Day 1, 2013 begins. |
N/A |
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|
Interest Rates |
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 0.4% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. |
1.9%
Y/Y |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
"Business generally was up relative to last year, but not quite as strong as the prior week," according to Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. Cooler weather helped apparel and department stores, while the approach of Halloween largely helped discounters and wholesale clubs. |
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Tue |
Producer Price Index |
Producer price inflation eased at the headline level but firmed a bit at the core. The September 2013 producer price index declined 0.1% after rising 0.3% in August 2013. |
1.9%
Y/Y |
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|
Inflation |
The consensus called for a 0.2% gain. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, firmed to 0.1% after no change in August 2013. The market forecast was for a 0.1% increase. |
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Tue |
Retail Sales |
Retailers had a shaky September 2013, as lukewarm back-to-school shopping and a plunge in car purchases caused sales to slide from August, according to the government. |
-0.1%
M/M |
|
|
Sales and Inventories |
Retail sales last month amounted to $425.9 billion, down 0.1% from August 2013 , the U.S. Census Bureau said Tuesday. But when stripped of the effects of motor vehicle and parts sales, which tanked 2.2%, the gauge was up 0.4%.
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 3.6% in the third week of October following a 2.9% gain in the prior week. |
3.6%
Y/Y |
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|
Sales and Inventories |
Month-to-date, October was up 3.2% compared to October of last year (relative to a target of a 3.6% gain). Month-over-month showed a 1.3% drop (relative to a target of a 1.0% drop). October is a four-week month on the retail calendar, ending on November 2nd. |
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Tue |
S&P Case-Shiller Index |
Home prices in the nation's largest metro regions jumped sharply in August 2013, posting yearly gains not seen since the last boom, according to a leading gauge.
|
0.9%
M/M |
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|
Real Estate |
The S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday showed that home prices in 20 large U.S. metro areas rose 1.3% from July and 12.8% from August 2012, beating the expectations of analysts who predicted weaker price gains. Prices haven't risen this fast year over year since Feb. 2006. |
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Tue |
Consumer Confidence |
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined moderately in September 2013, decreased sharply in October 2013. |
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Consumer |
The Index now stands at 71.2 (1985=100), down from 80.2 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 70.7 from 73.5. The Expectations Index fell to 71.5 from 84.7 last month |
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Tue |
Business Inventories |
U.S. business inventories rose as expected in August 2013, suggesting restocking could provide a lift to third-quarter economic growth. |
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Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday inventories increased 0.3% after rising 0.4% in July 2013. August's increase in inventories was in line with economists' expectations. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Purchase applications for government programs dropped by more than 7% over the week to their lowest level since December 2007, and the government share of purchase applications dropped to its lowest level in almost three years. |
6.4%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The refinancing index gained 3.3% after recently hitting the lowest level since June 2009. In contrast, the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 4.8%. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
ADP Employment Report |
ADP's monthly employment report estimated that the private sector added 130,000 workers to private payrolls this month, below economists' consensus estimate for 150,000. |
`130,00
Jobs
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Employment |
September 2013 private payroll growth was revised down to 145,000 from 166,000.The October 2013 number is the lowest since May. |
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Wed |
Consumer Price Index |
U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in September 2013 but there was little sign of underlying inflation in the economy, which should give the Federal Reserve scope to maintain its monthly bond purchases. |
0.2% |
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|
Inflation |
The Labor Department said on Wednesday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% last month as energy prices rebounded, after edging up 0.1% in August 2013. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
Strong domestic output, which exceeded imports for a second straight week, helped feed a 4.1 million barrel build in oil inventories in the October 25 week to 383.9 million. |
4.1M
Barrels
|
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|
Commodity |
Though refineries, operating at 87.3% of capacity, are picking up production, product inventories fell in the week as shipments to wholesalers picked up which is a positive indication on end-user demand. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting #7 Day 2 |
The Fed stayed the course on policy today. Quantitative easing is unchanged--no taper yet. Policy rates remain unchanged with the fed funds target at a range of zero to 0.25%. |
0.25% |
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|
Interest Rates |
The FOMC decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. |
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Wed |
Treasury Budget |
The federal government's latest annual deficit is the smallest it's been since 2008, according to Treasury Department data released Wednesday. At $680 billion, the fiscal 2013 deficit is 51% less than it was in 2009, when it hit a record high nominally of $1.4 trillion. |
$75.1B |
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Government |
As a percent of the economy, it's also considerably smaller than it's been in the past five years, coming in at 4.1% of gross domestic product. By contrast, the annual deficit in 2009 topped 10% of GDP. And last year it was 6.8%. Overall, Treasury said higher receipts accounted for 79% of the decline in the deficit from last year. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits declined largely as expected last week as the impact of a California computer glitch worked its way out of the report. |
340K |
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|
Employment |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined by 10,0000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were not revised. |
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Thu |
Chicago PMI |
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65.9 |
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Manufacturing |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Prior 87 bcf Actual 38 bcf. |
38 bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 38 billion cubic feet in the October 25 week to 3,779 bcf. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the October 30 week, the Fed balance sheet grew $4.4 billion, following an expansion of $25.4 billion the week before. The gain was led by an $11.3 billion boost in Treasuries. Holdings of mortgage-backed securities declined $7.0 billion. |
$4.4B |
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Government |
Total assets for the October 30 week posted at $3.843 trillion. Reserve Bank credit for the October 30 week increased $12.9 billion after expanding $20.4 billion the prior period. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $55.9 Billions from $28.8 Billions revised to $28.8 Billions. |
$55.9B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan declined to 4.10% from 4.13% last week. The average on the 15-year fixed loan eased to 3.20% from 3.24%. |
4.10% |
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|
Interest Rates |
Average U.S. rates on fixed mortgages fell for the second straight week and are at their lowest levels in four months. |
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Fri |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
Manufacturing grew in October 2013 at a faster pace than forecast, showing U.S. factories were a source of strength for the economy at the start of the fourth quarter. |
56.4 |
|
|
Manufacturing |
The Institute for Supply Management's index climbed to 56.4, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group's report showed today. Readings above 50 indicate growth. The median forecast of economists was 55. |
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| WEEK 44-2013 ENDING NOV. 01 |
Reports Commentary
The data suggests businesses may have scaled back investment plans as a political impasse in Washington threatened to lead the government to miss payments on its obligations, although firms also could be trimming these plans over more general doubts regarding the economy's strength.
While the economy was already struggling before the government shutdown, economists estimate the shutdown will shave as much as 0.6 percentage point off annualized fourth-quarter gross domestic product through reduced government output and damage to both consumer and business confidence.
Since then home prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace each month. This month 16 cities reported smaller gains in August compared to July. Recent increases in mortgage rates and fewer mortgage applications are two factors in these shifts.
The housing recovery kicked into overdrive earlier this year as families and investors jumped into the market, finally convinced the bottom had passed. Prices shot up rapidly as people battled over a shortage of homes for sale, raising concerns that a bubble was forming in some red-hot markets.
But lately the market has cooled as investors have pulled back and listings have increased in many areas, helped by some owners looking to cash in on those soaring values. Some buyers, meanwhile, have stepped aside, frustrated over the higher cost of houses and bidding wars. Mortgage rates, while declining recently, are up sharply since May.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Emerging Markets Go Down and the S&P goes Up |
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