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Week 37 -2013 | From Sep. 09 to Sep. 13, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 37-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 37-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Consumer Credit |
Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose less than forecast in July 2013 as credit-card use fell for a second month even as Americans took out more loans for car purchases. |
$10.4B |
|
 |
Consumer |
The $10.4 billion increase in credit followed a revised $11.9 billion advance in June 2013 that was less than initially reported, the Federal Reserve reported today in Washington. Non-revolving financing, including auto and school loans, rose. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 1.5% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as most categories saw an increase in business. |
2.4%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The weather in the period, which included Labor Day, was also somewhat cooler than the prior year, which aided back-to-school and fall apparel sales. On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 2.4%. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Same-store sales are trending at their strongest level in nearly 2 years for Redbook's sample which reports 4.6% same-store sales growth in the September 7 week. This follows the prior week's 4.7% rate and lifts the 4-week average to 4.1% which was last exceeded in November 2011. |
4.6%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook notes softer results at department stores. The back-to-school season has now passed its peak but has been a success at least based on Redbook. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. last week fell 13.5% from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis as interest rates increased, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. |
-13.5%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
On an unadjusted basis, MBA reported the market composite index declined 23%. The refinance index slipped 28% from a week earlier, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index slid 2.7% |
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Wed |
Wholesale Trade |
Wholesale inventories edged 0.1% higher in July 2013 following an unrevised 0.25 contraction in June 2013. Sales at the wholesale level also edged 0.1% higher in July 2013 after rising 0.4% in June 2013. |
0.1% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Wholesalers are keeping down inventories in line with subdued sales. The stock-to-sales ratio for the sector is at 1.17 for both months. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning. U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory to 360 million barrels, and they remain near the upper limit of the five-year range for this time of the year. |
-0.2M
Barrels
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Commodity |
Crude prices were trading higher before the EIA report at around $107.50 a barrel and fell to around $107.20 shortly after the report was released. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The reported figure, which estimated that jobless claims had dropped to 292,000, about 31,000 fewer than the week before, seemingly suggested that the economy was finally entering a self-sustaining recovery on the back of a healing job market. |
292K |
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Employment |
Labor Dept. Reports Plunge in Jobless Claims, Then Says Figures Were Flawed. The total number of initial jobless claims is almost certainly higher than reported, though nobody knows the scope of the mismeasurement at this point. |
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Thu |
Import and Export Prices |
Import prices are unchanged in the August 2013 report following a slight 0.1% revised uptick in July 2013 that follows 4 prior months of declines. Year-on-year, import prices are down 0.4%. |
0.0% |
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Inflation |
Exports with minus 0.5% which is a sixth straight negative reading. Year-on-year export prices are down 1.1%. Agricultural prices are the outsized component for export prices and are down a steep 4.3% in August 2013 with the year-on-year rate at minus 5.7%. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas for October 2103 delivery rose 2.2 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.66 per million British thermal units at 11:11 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. |
65bcf |
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Commodity |
Natural gas in storage rose 65 billion cubic feet in the September 6 week to 3,253 bcf. Volume was 23% below the 100-day average for the time of day. The futures are up 3.8% this week and 9.3% this year. |
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Thu |
Treasury Budget |
The U.S. government posted a deficit of $148 billion in August 2103, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. |
$-147.9
Billions |
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Government |
With the latest figure, the Treasury remains on course for its first full-year shortfall below $1 trillion since 2008. Receipts were $185 billion in August 2013, a 4% increase compared to the same month in the prior year, and spending was $333 billions. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the September 11 week, the Fed balance sheet expanded $7.9 billion after growing $9.7 billion the prior week. The gain was led by a $7.8 billion in holdings of Treasuries with "other assets" gaining $2.2 billion. Partially offsetting was a $1.5 billion dip in federal agency debt. |
$7.9B |
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Government |
Total assets for the September 11 week were $3.662 trillion. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $11.8 Billions from $35.9 Billions revised to $11.8 Billions. |
$11.8B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan was unchanged from last week at 4.57%, just below the two-year high of 4.58% reached Aug. 22, 2013. |
4.57% |
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Interest Rates |
The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage held at 3.59%. The two-year high of 3.60% was hit on Aug. 22, 2013. |
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Fri |
Producer Price Index |
Wholesale prices rose by 0.3% on the back of higher gasoline and vegetable costs, beating expectations of a 0.2% rise. |
0.3%
|
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Inflation |
U.S. wholesale prices jumped 0.3% in August 2013, while stripped of food and energy costs, core prices were unchanged. |
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Fri |
Retail Sales |
U.S. retail sales gained 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said Friday, smaller than the 0.5% rise expected. But the slower pace was offset by faster gains in June and July. Retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. |
0.2%
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Sales and Inventories |
Sales at U.S. retailers increased in August 2013 by the smallest amount since late spring, but business was stronger earlier in the summer than initially estimated. That was the smallest increase since April and well below the MarketWatch forecast of a 0.5% increase. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary September reading of 76.8 the lowest since April 2013 from a final August 2013 reading of 82.1. |
76.8
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Consumer |
A gauge of consumer sentiment in September 2013 hit its lowest level in five months as barometers that measure views on current and coming economic conditions declined. |
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Fri |
Business Inventories |
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July 2013 was 1.28, down from 1.29 in June. The July 2012 ratio was 1.30. |
0.4% |
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Sales and Inventories |
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers shipments for July 2013, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,293.6 billion. This is up 0.6% from June 2013 and up 4.6% from a year ago. |
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| WEEK 37-2013 ENDING SEP. 13 |
Reports Commentary
Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 130 points, but that was mainly because shares of IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), the most heavily weighted stock in the average, rose more than 2%.
Traders have pushed markets higher over the past few days as worries about the possibility of U.S.-led military strikes on Syria have receded. It now looks like a diplomatic resolution may be possible after the Syrian government said it would be willing to turn over its chemical weapons.
The Fed will meet next week and could discuss plans to taper the bank's bond buying program.
10-year Treasury yields have been moving higher and are now hovering near 3%, a level they haven't hit since July 2011.
Oil
The fear is that Western intervention in Syria over that country's suspected use of chemical weapons could engulf major oil producing countries in the region such as Iraq or Iran.
Oil prices are spiking on Syria tensions and oil outages across the broader region, but that doesn't mean gasoline prices will follow suit.
Interest Rates and Banks
Interest rates have always been a two-edged sword for banks, even more so recently. In the wake of the financial crisis, banks piled into bonds in order to generate income at a time when loan demand was weak. JPMorgan's bond portfolio, for instance, has nearly tripled to $333 billion since mid-2008.
Housing
Housing markets about to get squeezed. Some communities will likely be hit harder by mortgage loan limits.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency plans to reduce the maximum size of mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this January. The current limits are $417,000 in most parts of the country and up to $625,500 in more expensive markets. The agency hasn't announced how much it will lower loan caps,
PPI
The producer price index for all finished goods increased 0.3% seasonally adjusted in the month of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. In July, prices for finished goods were unchanged. The 12 month change in the price of goods is an increase of 1.4%. This is down from July when the 12 month change was 2.1%.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in August. This follows a 0.1% increase in July.
Treasury Budget
The improved deficit picture has taken some of the heat off the White House and Congress to strike long-term budget deals. But Washington is facing two looming fiscal deadlines: approving spending for the budget year that begins Oct. 1 and raising the country's borrowing limit this fall. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said last month that the U.S. would hit its borrowing limit in mid-October, and the White House has urged Congress to raise the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling without conditions.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Investors are pulling Money out of the Market |
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