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Week 32 -2013 | From Aug. 05 to Aug. 09, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 32-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 32-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
Service industries in the U.S. expanded in July at the fastest pace in five months, complementing a rebound at the nation's factories and showing the economy is gaining traction. |
56.0 |
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Business Actvity |
The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index increased to 56, exceeding all forecasts, from a more than three-year low of 52.2 in June, 2013. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 0.3% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, amid cooler weather and sales tax holidays in 12 states. |
2.5%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
The report notes that 12 states, late in the reporting week, launched their annual state tax holidays which is another factor helping back-to-school sales. On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 2.5%. |
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Tue |
U.S. Trade Balance |
A drop in imports together with a rise in exports made for a surprisingly narrow trade gap in June 2013, at minus $34.2 billion vs a revised minus $44.1 billion in May 2013 . This is the lowest trade gap in more than 4 years. |
$-34.2
Billions |
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Balance of Payments |
The rise in exports is a clearly positive signal, led by gains for industrial supplies and including strong gains for capital goods, boosted by aircraft, and also gains for consumer goods. On the other side, the drop in imports may be good for the trade balance, it does pose a negative signal for domestic demand. Imports of consumer goods show the steepest drop followed by industrial supplies. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 3.7% in the fourth and final week of July 2013 bfollowing a 2.9% gain in the prior week. |
3.7%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook, like ICSC-Goldman earlier this morning, reports solid strength in same-store retail sales for the August 3 week, at plus 3.7%. This is the strongest reading of the year. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 0.2% in the week ended Aug 2. |
0.2%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, was stronger, adding 0.7% after falling in four of the past five weeks. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
Crude-oil futures were a little down in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors wait for weekly U.S. oil inventory data expected to show a further decline. |
N/A |
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Commodity |
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at $105.14 a barrel at 0624 GMT--down $0.16 in the Globex electronic session. September Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.37 to $107.81 a barrel. |
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Wed |
Consumer Credit |
U.S. consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 5.9% in June 2013, a slower gain than 7.5% in the previous month, the U.S. Federal Reserve said. Total consumer borrowing rose from a revised $2.83 trillion in May 2013 to a seasonally adjusted $2.85 trillion in June 2013. |
$13.8B |
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Consumer |
Revolving debt, which includes credit card spending, decreased to $853.6 billion in June 2013, down 3.8% from the May 2013 figure. The borrowing in the non-revolving category that includes auto and student loans, rose at an annual rate of 10.0% to $1.99 trillion. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose slightly last week but was still near its lowest level since before the 2007-09 recession, a hopeful sign for the U.S. economy. |
333K |
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Employment |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 last week to 333,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
Natural gas futures gained in New York for the first time in six days, rebounding from a 25-week low, after a government report showed a stockpile increase that was near analyst forecasts.
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N/A |
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Commodity |
Gas climbed 1.5% after the Energy Information Administration said a U.S. supply increase of 96 billion cubic feet included about 14 billion that was reclassified from base gas to working gas. Analysts expected a gain of 79 billion. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
For the August 7 week, the Fed balance sheet rebounded $13.6 billion after declining $2.8 billion the week before. The increase was led by an $11.0 billion boost in holdings of Treasuries. "Other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) grew $2.2 billion.
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$13.6 B |
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Government |
Total assets for the August 7 week stood at $3.585 trillion. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $46.4 Billions from $16.8 Billions revised to $16.7 Billions. |
$46.4 B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.40% (0.7 point) for the week ending August 8, up from 4.39% last week. |
4.40% |
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Interest Rates |
The 15-year FRM averaged 3.43% (0.7 point), unchanged from the previous survey. |
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Fri |
Wholesale Trade |
Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in June 2013 as sales rose 0.4%, lowering the inventory-to-sales ratio from 1.18 in May 2013 to 1.17 for the leanest reading since April 2013 last year. |
-0.2% |
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Sales and Inventories |
Wholesalers continue to pare back their inventories in what may indicate a cautious business outlook. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in June 2013 as sales rose 0.4%, lowering the inventory-to-sales ratio from 1.18 in May 2013 to 1.17 for the leanest reading since April 2013 last year. |
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| WEEK 32-2013 ENDING AUG. 09 |
Reports Commentary
ISM
Last week, the ISM's survey of manufacturing also beat expectations showing a surprisingly strong level of factory activity in July. That report--along with some other solid job-related data--raised expectations for the July change in nonfarm payrolls, with some forecasts at 200,000 jobs. However, on Friday the Labor Department reported a modest gain of just 162,000 jobs added last month.
For the non-manufacturing sector, which comprises mainly private service providers, the ISM subindexes were mixed but expansionary.
The Fed and Bond Purchase
The Fed is currently buying $85 billion in bonds a month to keep borrowing costs low. The cheap mortgage rates have helped spur home buying and worries have emerged that higher costs could take some of the strength out of the housing market's recovery.
Fixed 30-year mortgage rates rose again last week to average 4.61%, up 3 basis points from the week before. Rates have risen more than 1 percentage point since early May, but still remain low by historical standards.
The increase cut into refinance demand, which has been hit harder by the rise in rates, as higher costs make refinancing less lucrative. The refinance index slipped 0.1% to 2,244.7 and the refinance share of total mortgage activity was unchanged at 63%.
When news hit of an unexpectedly low trade deficit for June, economists moved up their estimates for second-quarter GDP growth, from the initial 1.7% growth rate pegged by the Commerce Department.
Some of that enthusiasm was taken away, however, after data showing a drop in wholesale inventories in June, as well as a downward revision to May.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Bank of America's second-quarter profit rose 63% |
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