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Week 17 - 2013
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Week 17 -2013 | From Apr. 22 to Apr. 26, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Apr. 22
Tue - Apr. 23
Wed - Apr. 24
Thu - Apr. 25
Fri - Apr. 26
         
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Economic Data for Week 17-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 17-2013 LAST
Mon Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index March 2013, in contrast to February 2013, was not a good month for the nation's economic indicators CFNAI. The CFNAI fell to minus 0.23 vs February's upwardly revised plus 0.76.
-0.23
M/M
Chart View Growth The biggest change in March 2013 is in production indicators which still contributed to growth, at plus 0.01, but well down from February 2013 plus 0.47.
Negative View
Mon Existing Home Sales Index

Existing-home sales declined 0.6% in March 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million, as longer-term trends posted substantial gains, pointing to a continuing recovery, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Supply of existing homes on the market is still low, which is a negative for sales but a big plus for prices.

4.92M
Chart View Real Estate Sales of existing homes in March 2013 were 10.3% higher than during the same period in the prior year. Meanwhile, median prices hit $184,300 in March 2013, up 11.8% from the same period in the prior year, the largest year-over-year price growth since November 2005. Low inventory is supporting prices.
Positive View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index

ICSC Goldman and Redbook show weaker retail sales in US given the abnormally high amount of rain the past week.

1.9%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Unseasonable weather continues to hold back retail sales, according to ICSC-Goldman whose same-store sales index year-on-year rate slipped 1 tenth to plus 1.9% which is near a recovery low.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook Retail sales are not bouncing higher following March's weather-induced disappointment, at least based on the weekly chain-store reports. Redbook report weakness in the April 20 week with Redbook's plus 1.8% year-on-year same-store rate near a recovery low.
1.8%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Redbook specifically cites the Boston Marathon bombings as a negative for sales in the week as the nation was glued to the TV.
Negative View
Tue FHFA House Price Index The FHFA's reading of U.S. home prices for February 2013 climbed by 0.7% month-over-month, which was right in line with expectations. This is up from 0.6% a month ago. The U.S. index is 13.6% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the October 2004 index level.
0.7%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate U.S. house prices have not declined on a monthly basis since January 2012. Much of the more recent pressure we've seen in the housing market has been attributed to the unusually cold weather in March 2013.
Positive View
Tue New Home Sales

Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.5% in March 2013 following a substantial drop in the prior month, signaling that the housing market continued to gain strength, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported Tuesday.

417K
Chart View Real Estate The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new-home sales rose to 417,000 in March 2013 from 411,000 in February 2013. Sales are 18.5% higher than during the same period in the prior year, and economists expect the housing market to continue to gain momentum this year.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The purchase index, up 0.3% in the latest week, is climbing slowly in what is a positive indication for the spring housing season. The index is at its highest level since the stimulus efforts of May 2010. The Composite index remains flat with 0.2%.
0.2%
W/W
Chart View Real Estate Gains for this index point to strength for home sales and housing starts which up until March 2013 had been soft. The refinance index also rose 0.3% in the week. Helping both indexes was a dip in mortgage, down 2 basis points for 30-Year loans to an average 3.65%.
Neutral View
Wed Durable Goods Orders Durable-goods-orders data disappoint .U.S. durable-goods orders slump in March 2013. Economists had expected orders to drop 3.2%. Stripping out the volatile transportation sector, orders fell a smaller 1.4%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
-5.7%
M/M
Chart View Manufacturing

Orders for big-ticket U.S. items sank 5.7% in March 2013, mainly because of fewer jetliner bookings, but demand softened for most durable goods last month.

Negative View
Wed EIA Crude Oil U.S. crude oil inventories rose 0.9 million barrels for the week ending April 19, according to an Energy Information Administration report released today.
N/A
Chart View Commodity After falling 1.2 million barrels the previous week, these newest numbers once again put oil inventories on a trajectory to remain well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. The inventory increase came from both a 133,000 barrel per day (bpd) imports increase and a 586,000 bpd decrease in refinery inputs.
Neutral View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Amid a slew of gloomy economic news, here's a bright spot: Claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to slight improvement in the job market.
339K
Chart View Employment About 339,000 people filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, down from 355,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Positive View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report U.S. natural gas futures seesawed on either side of unchanged early on Thursday, with a slight bias to the upside as traders awaited weekly government inventory data expected to show another below-average storage injection.
30
Bcf
Chart View Commodity Natural gas in storage rose an as-expected 30 billion cubic feet in the April 19 week to 1,734 bcf.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded in the latest week on higher holdings of Treasuries and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed.
$23.5
Billions
Chart View Government The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - xpanded $23.5 billion after jumping $67.4 billion the prior week. The gain was led by a $11.2 billion boost in holdings of Treasuries, followed by $9.9 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $44.4 Billions.
$44.4
Billions
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates The most popular mortgage, the 30-year fixed-rate, came in at 3.4%, 0.09 percentage point above its record low.
3.40%
Chart View Interest Rates The 15-year fixed rate fell to 2.61% this week from 2.64%, The previous record low of 2.63% was set the week of Nov. 21, 2012.
Positive View
Fri Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.5% pace in the first three months of 2013, up from 0.4% in the fourth quarter, as consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in two years and businesses restocked warehouse shelves.

2.5%
View Chart Growth

Yet government spending fell sharply again ands imports surged to act as drags on economic growth, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast growth to rise to 3.2%, so the less-than-expected number could weigh on U.S. markets.

Positive View
Fri Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment gauge fell to a final April 2013 reading of 76.4 -- the lowest result since January 2013-- from a final March 2013 reading of 78.6.

76.4
Chart View Consumer In April consumers faced negative news on jobs and federal spending, though they also saw stocks rise and gasoline prices decline. In addition, they've been hit by higher payroll taxes.
Negative View
     
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WEEK 17-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 17-2013
01. Interest Rates
1
Positive View
 
02. Growth
1
1
Neutral View

GDP report shows U.S. economy growing 2.5% in first quarter

03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
1
Positive View
 
05. Real Estate
3
1
Positive View

U.S. existing-home sales decline in March. U.S. new-home sales rise 1.5% in March

06. Manufacturing
1
Negative View
 
07. Consumer
1
Negative View

U.S. consumer sentiment falls to three-month low

08. Sales & Inventories
2
Negative View
 
09. Business Activity
Non Available
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 17-2013
6
5
3
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 17 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 17-2013
6
5
5
Positive View
Week 17, 2013 has been rated ...
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 17-2013 ENDING APR. 26
Reports Commentary

The GDP is clearly in positive territory (in fact +3.1% is the expected reading for this Friday's report). And even with soft patches here and there it continues to expand at a reasonable enough rate to promote earnings growth.

When you combine that with the 10 year treasury paying a paltry 1.7%, then just the 2% dividend yield on the S&P 500 is reason enough to climb onboard stocks. Long story short, it's best to remain bullish until there are higher odds of a recession on the horizon. PMI Mfg Flash Index dropped to 52.0 versus 54.9.

Asian stocks closed lower led by a 2.57% decline in Shanghai, as China's Markit Flash PMI came up just short of expectations.

In Europe, Germany's Markit Flash PMI sank into contraction mode (i.e. a reading below 50) for the first time this year.

Consumer spending, which alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, rose at a 3.2% annual pace, the fastest pace since the end of 2010.

At first glance, that's pretty remarkable, since most workers saw their take-home pay drop in January, following the end of the payroll tax cut.

Meanwhile, cuts in government spending, mainly related to defense, dragged on the economy in the first quarte

The world's largest economies are losing momentum.

Recent data shows slowing growth in the United States and China, while Europe's recession is still underway. Japan has announced a massive stimulus program, but it's not likely to grow much this year either.

Job growth waned, the housing recovery lost some steam and consumers cut back on spending in March. New data released Tuesday shows American factories reporting their weakest growth in six months in April.

The government's across-the-board spending cuts have only just begun, and will total $85 billion through September. They're expected to prevent the U.S. economy from growing beyond 2% this year.

Across the Pacific, China's manufacturing sector also reported weaker growth. That disappointing news follows earlier reports showing that the broader Chinese economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter.

Part of the problem there comes from weaker global trade. Whenever the U.S. and Europe are slow, the domino effect hurts Chinese exports. Chinese authorities have also been reluctant to stimulate their economy, amid concerns about rapid credit growth and fears of a property bubble.

The euro zone is still stuck in a recession. Even Germany, the largest of the European economies, saw its services and manufacturing sectors contract in April.

Japan is the exception to the other large economies, in that the country recently launched a large stimulus program known as "Abenomics," the brainchild of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe includes large public spending programs and easier monetary policy from Japan's central bank.

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

  1. Boston Marathon Bombing aftermath: April 15, 2013

  2. GDP report shows U.S. economy growing 2.5% in first quarter.

  3. U.S. existing-home sales decline in March. U.S. new-home sales rise 1.5% in March

  4. U.S. consumer sentiment falls to three-month low.
       
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