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Week 16 -2013 | From Apr. 15 to Apr. 19, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 16-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 16-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
Empire Estate Mfg Index |
The April 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved slightly. The general business conditions index fell six points, but at 3.1, remained positive for a third consecutive month. |
3.05
M/M
|
|
 |
Manufacturing |
Similarly, the new orders index was lower than last month but still positive, dipping six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell to 0.8. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received inched higher--a sign that the pace of input and selling price increases had picked up over the month. |
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Mon |
Treasury Intal Capital |
The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2009. The next release, which will report on data for March 2009, is scheduled for May 15, 2009. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $22.0 billion. |
$-17.8B |
|
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Balance of Payments |
Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $20.8 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $25.9 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $5.1 billion. U.S. residents sold a net $1.2 billion of long-term foreign securities. |
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Mon |
Housing Market Index |
A gauge of confidence among home builders fell in April 2013 for a third month of declines, hitting the lowest level in six months, hurt by weaker views on present sales of single-family homes and prospective-buyer traffic. |
42
Level
|
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|
Real Estate |
The overall builder-confidence index decreased to 42 in April 2013 from 44 in March 2013. This is the lowest reading since October 2012, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing-market index released Monday. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
ICSC-Goldman's year-on-year rate is steady and slightly above trend at plus 2.0%. Retail sales have been very soft and the report sees full month sales picking up in the next two weeks, forecasting a 2.0 to 3.0% year-on-year gain for the month vs March's very soft 1.4% gain |
2.0%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
Same-store sales fell back 1.1% in the April 13, 2013 week, the result of wet weather and soft business at discounters. |
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Tue |
Consumer Price Index |
Lower energy costs brought down headline CPI inflation in March 2013. The core rate also eased. The consumer price index for March declined 0.2% after jumping 0.7 in February 2013. |
-0.2
M/M
|
|
|
Inflation |
The March 2013 pace came in below market expectations for no change. The core CPI-excluding food and energy-slowed to a 0.1% pace, following a 0.2% rise the month before. |
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Tue |
Housing Starts |
Construction on new U.S. homes in March 2013 hit the highest rate in almost five years, as starts for apartments jumped. Housing starts rose 7% in March 2013 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.04 million, the highest rate since June 2008. |
1,036K |
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Real Estate |
The government on Tuesday also revised up February's starts rate to 968,000. In March 2013, housing starts jumped 7.0% after a 7.3% gain the month before. |
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Tue |
Builiding Permits |
This week Housing starts and Building Permits Reports for March 2013 gave mixed signals with starts up and permits down. |
902K |
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|
Real Estate |
Permits fell back, declining 3.9% to an annual pace of 0.902 million units. Market expectations were for 0.942 million units for February 2013 permits. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Redbook's year-on-year same-store sales rate is plus 2.0% in the April 13 week which is down five tenths from the prior week and down 1 full percentage point from the week before that. |
2.0%
Y/Y
|
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|
Sales and Inventories |
In an offset, the Redbook report notes that the latest rate reflects a tough comparison with the year-ago week which was boosted by Easter demand. |
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Tue |
Industrial Production |
Industrial production and capacity utilization both increased in March 2013, albeit not notably so, extending the increases tallied the month before. All told, this was an affirmation that the nation's economy, though slowing down somewhat in March 2013, still ended the quarter in decent fashion. |
0.4%
M/M
|
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|
Manufacturing |
In all, we continue to expect that the nation's gross domestic product rose by close to 3% in the recently ended three months. However, we continue to expect that growth will backtrack some in the current period. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
The spring housing season may now be showing some life with the purchase index up 4.0% in the April 12 week. The MBA Purchase index is now at its highest level since May 2010 when stimulus programs were boosting sales. |
4.8%
W/W
|
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Real Estate |
Refinancing activity is also picking up with the index up 5.0%. Rates moved lower in the week with the average 30-year mortgage down 1 basis point to 3.67%. |
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Wed |
Bank Reserve Settlement |
Bank Reserve Settlement is the date where commercial banks must meet reserve requirements stipulated by the Federal Reserve. |
N/A |
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Banking System |
Bank Reserve Settlement is a two-week period that ends every other Wednesday. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil inventories dropped 1.2 million barrels for the week ending April 12, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report (link opens in PDF) released today. At 387.6 million barrels total, the week's supply represents a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week, when inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels. |
N/A |
|
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Commodity |
For the week ending April 12, crude oil refinery inputs remained relatively steady, down just 40,000 barrels per day (bpd), while crude oil imports fell by 289,000 bpd. Overall inventories remain "well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year," according to the EIA. |
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Wed |
Beige Book |
Fed's Beige Book reports 'moderate' growth in U.S. economy. The so-called Beige Book released by the Fed, covering the period from late February to early April, is just slightly stronger in tone than the last Beige Book, which said the economy was growing "at a modest to moderate" pace. |
N/A |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The U.S. economy is growing at a "moderate" pace, as housing's rebound and the continued recovery in the auto sector offset weaknesses stemming from federal government budget cuts, the expiration of the payroll tax cut and winter weather, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday. Of the Fed's 12 districts, five reported "moderate" growth, five reported "modest" growth, and New York and Dallas reported slight accelerations. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The latest weekly initial unemployment claims report is out, and it's a bit worse than expected. Claims climbed to 352,000 from 348,000 a week ago. |
352K |
|
|
Employment |
Economists were looking for a reading of 350,000. While disappointing, there was nothing too worrisome about the report. Some may actually be encouraged by the fact that claims are increasingly being impacted by the sequester. In other words, people are glad things aren't any worse. |
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Thu |
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Business among manufacturers in the Philadelphia region softened slightly in April 2013. The bank's business-conditions index edged down to 1.3 from 2.0 in March 2013, though any reading above zero indicates that manufacturers are still expanding. |
1.3
Level
|
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Business Activity |
The consensus figure for The Philly Fed report was for a 3.3 reading, but it was a just 1.3. The Fed reported that the index for new orders fell to negative 1.0 in April 2013 from 0.5 in March 2013. |
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Thu |
Leading Indicators |
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) data were worse than expected in March 2013. Referring to its negative readings, a dip in building permits, a dip in the factory workweek, and a rise for initial unemployment claims in a reading that doesn't look to improve in the April 2013. |
-0.1%
M/M
|
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|
Business Activity |
Inside the report we find that inventories and new orders went negative. Unfilled orders and delivery times were already negative and got worse, as well as the employment portion of the report getting worse. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The nation's natural gas supplies rose last week. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas in storage grew by 31 billion cubic feet to 1.704 trillion cubic feet for the week ended April 12. Analysts expected a rise of 33 billion to 37 billion cubic feet. |
31
Bcf
|
|
|
Commodity |
The inventory level was 4.2% below the five-year average of 1.778 trillion cubic feet, and 31.8% below last year's level of 2.498 trillion cubic feet, according to the government data.Natural gas futures rose 10 cents, or 2.4%, to $4.31 per 1,000 cubic feet in New York. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded in the latest week on higher holdings of Treasuries and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed. |
$67.4
Billions |
|
|
Government |
The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system -jumped $67.4 billion after growing $12.3 billion the week before |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $-26.3 Billions. |
$-26.3
Billions
|
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|
Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The mortgage giant said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ( FRM) fell to 3.41% in the week ending April 18, down from 3.43% in the previous week and not far from the record low of 3.31%. |
3.41% |
|
|
Interest Rates |
The 15-year FRM, a popular choice for those looking to refinance, dipped slightly to 2.64% this week, also near the record low of 2.63% registered in November 2012. |
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| WEEK 16-2013 ENDING APR. 19 |
Reports Commentary
During the Boston Marathon on April 15, 2013, two pressure cooker bombs exploded at 2:49 pm EDT (18:49 UTC), killing 3 people and injuring 264. The bombs exploded about 13 seconds and 210 yards (190 m) apart, near the finish line on Boylston Street.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) took over the investigation, and on April 18, released photographs and surveillance video of two suspects. The suspects were identified later that day as the Chechen brothers Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
Gold
Gold futures to log their biggest decline since the 1980s as the sharp selloff in the metal continued into a second straight session.
U.S. March Jobs Report
In March, we had weaker than expected job growth. The PMI inflation number, which came in on Friday, was also weaker than expected.
Japan
The Bank of Japan recently announced that they were going to buy 7 trillion yen worth of bonds, at a rate of $75 billion a month. With a fully employed economy like Japan's, all effects of their quantitative easing program will be seen in prices.
U.S. corporations need stronger earnings for the market to significantly appreciate. We must see what happens with new monthly jobs numbers; what happens with Japan; and what happens with Europe.
Europe
The European Central bank (the ECB) announced this week that it is holding off on cutting Europe's short-term interest rates. European central bankers are waiting for some type of second half recovery. This is not a positive development. Europe is now experiencing stagnation.
CPI
The consumer price index decreased 0.2% in March, led by lower energy and apparel costs. The decrease was larger than the 0.1% decline expected by analysts. Core prices which exclude volatile food and energy costs increased 0.1%, softer than the 0.2% gain expected.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- Boston Marathon Bombing on April 15, 2013
- European stocks drop to worst levels in six months.
- German stock market goes NEGATIVE for 2013.
- Terrorist not found in Boston bombing yet, and Ricin-laced poisonous letters found mailed to Senator Wicker & President Obama.
- European officials claim they may cut interest rates sending the Euro lower.
- German sovereign debt is DOWNGRADED.
- Apple shares dip below $400 level for first time since 2011.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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S&P Climbed to highest |
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