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Week 27 -2013 | From Jul. 01 to Jul. 05, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 27-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 27-2013 |
LAST |
|
Mon |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
June 2013 proved a solid month for the ISM's sample with the manufacturing index coming in slightly higher than expected at 50.9 to indicate slight growth from what was a weak May 2013 at 49.0. |
50.9
Level |
|
 |
Manufacturing |
U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in June 2013 after it had contracted the previous month. The Institute for Supply Management's monthly index on the U.S. manufacturing sector came in at 50.9 in June, up from 49 in May 2103. Any number above 50 indicates the sector is expanding. |
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Mon |
Construction Spending |
Construction spending was mixed in May 2013 with divergent movement in the private sector and the public sector up. Construction outlays advanced 0.5% in May 2013 after rebounding 0.1% in April 2013. |
0.5%
M/M |
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Growth |
Market expectations were for a 0.6% gain. The May 2013 boost was led by a 1.8% rebound in public outlays after a 0.2% dip the month before. |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 0.6% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as exceptionally hot weather warmed up sales of seasonal goods. |
1.9%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
It was another week of mixed performance for retailers with the year-over-year sales pace soft, but the week-over- week gain was decent. ICSC expects June 2013 industry sales will increase 3% to 3.5%. On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 1.9%. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
Store sales are steady and moderate based on Redbook's same-store index which is up 2.9% in the June 29 week, 2013, which is right in trend. |
2.9%
Y/Y |
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook says summer heat drove up traffic for summer goods, as it warns that consumers, more than ever, are buying according to immediate need. Redbook's month-over-month reading is down 0.5% which points to weakness for the government's ex-auto ex-gas category for June 2013. |
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Tue |
Factory Orders |
In a separate report, the Commerce Department said new orders for manufactured goods increased 2.1% after advancing 1.3% in April 2013. Factory orders rose in most categories in May 2013. |
2.1%
M/M |
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Manufacturing |
Manufacturing slowed in recent months, weighed down by deep government spending cuts and slowing global demand, especially in China and recession-hit Europe. But signs are the loss of momentum has run its course or is at least starting to ebb. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Refinancing apps dropped 16% last week to a 2-year low while new purchase apps fell 3%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 4.58%, the highest in 2 years, and up from 3.59% in May. |
-11.7%
W/W |
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Real Estate |
The index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 11.7%. |
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Wed |
U.S. Trade Balance |
The U.S. trade balance in May 2013 widened sharply. Exports were down and imports were up. But the rise in imports was not just in petroleum, indicating some improvement in domestic demand even as export demand softened. |
$-45.0
Billions |
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Balance of Payments |
The trade gap jumped to $45.0 billion from $40.1 billion in April 2013. Expectations were for a $40.8 billion gap. Exports fell 0.3%, following a 1.3% gain in April 2013. Imports rose 1.9% in May 2013 after a 2.4% boost the month before. |
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Wed |
ADP Employment Report |
ADP's sample shows significant month-to-month improvement in job growth, at 188,000 for private payrolls in June 2013vs a slightly revised 134,000 gain in May 2013. |
188,000
Jobs |
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Employment |
Though the level of 188,000 is still moderate, the monthly change could lift what are mostly flat expectations for Friday's employment report. |
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Fri |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Jobless claims fall in the US. July 3, 2013. The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. fell broadly in line with market expectations last week, official data showed on Wednesday.
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343K |
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Employment |
In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 29 fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, compared to expectations for a drop of 3,000 to 345,000. |
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Wed |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
Growth slowed for the bulk of the nation's economy during June 2013, based on the ISM non-manufacturing index which, pulled down by a sharp decline in new orders, slowed to 52.2 vs May's 53.7.
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52.2
M/M
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Business Actvity |
Any reading over 50 indicates monthly growth, though June's reading indicates a slower rate of growth than May 2013. |
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Wed |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a larger-than-expected rise in natural gas supplies on account of weak demand due to mild summer temperatures. Moreover, on a further bearish note, the build was well ahead of the five-year average levels, thereby narrowing the deficit with the benchmark. |
72
bcf |
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Commodity |
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a 72 bcf from a 95 bcf last week.Natural gas in storage rose an as-expected 72 billion cubic feet in the June 28 week to 2,605 bcf. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
A sharp week-to-week slowing in oil imports together with a rise in refinery inputs combined to lower commercial oil inventories by a very sharp 10.3 million barrels in the June 28 week to 383.8 million. The double-digit weekly draw is the steepest since December last year. |
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Commodity |
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Thu |
Independence Day |
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N/A |
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U.S. Market Holidays |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nationwide dipped to 4.29% after hitting a two-year high of 4.46% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of USA lenders. |
4.29% |
|
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Interest Rates |
The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.39% from 3.5% a week ago. The same week a year ago, the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.62% and the 15-year fixed mortgage was 2.89% |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
Employers added a better-than-expected 195,000 jobs in June, as the labor market advanced despite huge federal spending cuts and tax increases, and a eurozone recession. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. |
7.6% |
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Employment |
Economists had estimated that 165,000 jobs were added last month, according to a consensus forecast: 195,000 new jobs in June 2013; jobless rate 7.6%. |
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Fri |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The latest gain in assets was led by an increase in $14.3 billion in holdings of Treasuries. Holdings of mortgage-backed securities declined $1.5 billion. |
$14.1B |
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Government |
Total assets for the July 3 week came in at $3.493 trillions. |
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Fri |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change -$22.1 Billions from $3.9 Billions revised to $4.0 Billions. |
$-22.1 B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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| WEEK 27-2013 ENDING JUL. 05 |
Reports Commentary
Construction
U.S. construction spending rose to its highest level in nearly four years in May as a sharp rebound in public outlays offset a decline in investment in private nonresidential projects, pointing to moderate economic growth.
U.S. new motor vehicle sales in June were poised to record their strongest month in more than 5-1/2 years and factories posted a second straight month of gains in new orders in May, indicating some pick-up in economic activity.
Adding to the improving economic picture, home prices posted their biggest annual increase in more than seven years in May, other data showed on Tuesday.
The economy appears to be finding some momentum after slowing early in the second quarter as the effects of cooling global demand and tighter fiscal policy took hold.
Housing
Housing is regaining its dominance in the U.S. economy, helping, for now, to blunt the blow from belt-tightening in Washington, a downturn in Europe and slowing growth in China.
A report by data analysis firm CoreLogic showed house prices rose 2.6% in May from April and were up 12.2% compared to May last year, the biggest year-over-year increase since February 2006.
Excluding distressed sales, properties that have been seized by lenders and short sales, prices increased 11.6% on a yearly basis.
In addition to boosting household net worth, which supports consumer spending, the housing recovery has spilled over to manufacturing by fueling demand for construction materials and consumer items like stoves and refrigerators.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose 70% in 30 days |
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